GM only plans to produce 1M EVs in NA by 2025.
For a total market of 18-20M units, a single OEM putting out 1M EVs by 2025, in that market alone, is not a small amount. Moreover, for a manufacturer that sells 6-8M globally to put out 1M EVs actually in just North America, just 3 years from now is not some small accomplishment either. If the other big OEMs have similar plans in the North American market, all of a sudden we're looking at EV adoption rates that are substantially ahead of conventional forecasts.
And I have no faith that GM, VW, etc. is going to deliver level 4 autonomy sooner than Tesla. Let's hope VW isn't dismissing it as a possibility until 2030.
Nobody said they are going to deliver Level 4 by 2030. What you seem to misunderstand here is that they don't want to put out a whole new platform if it doesn't have significant advancements. What they are effectively is saying is that they won't move to SSP till they have Level 4. And in the interim they will invest enough to keep the MEB and PPE platforms relevant to the market. From an engineering resource point of view this makes a ton of sense to me. Especially for a company trying to grow their software abilities. And given that the ID series is selling well, there's no pressing need to switch horses mid race.
I am not sure that China is going to be made a pariah from a global markets standpoint. Maybe the past year has been a paradigm shift in global trade patterns but I am not yet convinced.
You must have missed the recent actions by the US and Europe on semiconductors. And there's a lot more coming. The idea that the Chinese will have unfettered access to markets and technology in the 2020s as in the past is quickly coming undone. The great decoupling has begun.
Even outside of China, there are emerging players like Vinfast that will be attacking western markets.
I agree there will be plenty of new players. How much of the market they can take is very much debatable. For example, Vinfast total global sales in 2021 were less than 38k. Even if they 10x by 2025, they aren't going to be threatening North American OEMs.
To be clear, I'm no fan of legacy OEMs. Particularly the North American OEMs which have long had a shady history. I, especially, hate the dealer franchise model they foisted on us. But I am also quite bullish on electrification and very optimistic that it will go faster than most people expect. I just don't think it will go as fast as Tesla fans imagine it will. I've seen the stuff from the EV bulls on YouTube to the Tesla forums predicting total demise of all legacy OEMs by 2030. Spend 5 minutes actually looking at the numbers yourself and all of a sudden it doesn't look nearly as dire. Big picture, most countries aren't banning the sales of gas cars till 2035. So I look at whether a given OEM has plans for that date.
There's a lot of speed bumps. From access to resources, to geopolitical trends. I think we're also likely to see the speed of adoption differ substantially. A country that imports oil through highly vulnerable chokepoints like China has a lot of incentive to move very quickly on EV adoption. A country that isn't a net importer (North America) is likely to move at the pace of technological maturity and optimum economic adoption.
