|
|
|
Pretty sure some jurisdictions like Florida and California have already legalized autonomous vehicles. Most jurisdictions, even backwards/reluctant ones, will legalize them very soon after they see autonomous vehicles working somewhere else.
Auto traffic is going to disappear, full stop. Transport as a service means people won't be buying cars which means that cars won't need to be transported. The smaller amounts of autonomous shuttles that will remain be able to deliver themselves from the factory.
trn.trains.com
That's probably true just because fleet operators want high utilization and low dead head distance between paying trips, particularly when demand exceeds the supply of AVs. But not because rural areas are that difficult. Tesla's beta Full Self-Driving software handles rural roads pretty easily, with some minor tweaks needed for passenger comfort (on narrower dirt roads, drive in the middle and avoid potholes, move to the edge when you see oncoming traffic at the right distance). Low conflicting traffic and simple road structure you see in rural areas is not that challenging. Unless you mean extreme remote areas (like 3 hour drive outside Yellowknife) but those are so small a share of the market as to be irrelevant to this discussion. It matters not one but to someone in Toronto if a person 400 km from Yellowknife is still driving their pickup manually.
You really have a hate boner for trains huh?
Uh no, far from it. I am an avid railfan, but it is important to recognize that the industry is vulnerable and is going to face some of its most formidable challenges of its entire existance over the next 15 years.
Ahahahahahahaha. No. We should be looking at data, and the movement of industry sectors as a whole, to see the future of transport. Lots of companies are investing into electric and autonomous vehicles, but I'm much more inclined to take the word of companies that have robust research and development teams with decades of experience than the guy shilling Dogecoin on Twitter.
What is with this hate on Elon Musk?? Say what you want about what he says on Twitter, but implying that he and his companies have no experience or knowledge is ridiculous.
Musk is a successful business man. However, because he sells cars, he is highly hostile to public transit. See the hyper loop, a boondoggle designed to fight the California HSR.
Any company that claims to be using rail over truck for environmental reasons is simply greenwashing and I wouldn't even assume it was important as a business consideration at all.
I'd want 'auto traffic is going to disappear' defined. Does that mean 100% of auto cargo on rail will disappear? By when would you say this would happen?Auto traffic is going to disappear, full stop. Transport as a service means people won't be buying cars which means that cars won't need to be transported. The smaller amounts of autonomous shuttles that will remain be able to deliver themselves from the factory.
Also:
CN sees one-person crews, autonomous operation as ways to compete with driverless trucks - Trains
MONTREAL — Canadian National is closely watching autonomous truck developments but says the long hauls of its intermodal network should help protect the railway from much of the competitive challenge posed by lower-cost driverless trucks. “We’re blessed with a long length of haul,” Chief...
CN has publicly addressed autonomous trucking as a considerable threat, so their investment in TuSimple makes a lot of sense in the context stated above.
If I was a railroad like CSX or Norfolk Southern who primarily deals with shorter lengths of haul, I would be feeling a lot of existential dread right now. Same if I was a shortline.
