@MCXavierL we can only govern by growth projections and cultural trends. Growth projections have Edmonton at 3.2 Million (metro) population by 2042 or about 58,000 people per year. If we apply a standard deviation principle, the lowest that projection should be would be 47,000 people per year (roughly -- again talking metro area not City proper). Another projection has 50% of that growth in downtown or nodal centres (i.e. TODs) or about 23,500 people per year (and not accounting for current residents who will move from suburbs to downtown or other nodal developments). With an average "core" family size of 2.3 people per unit (marrieds with children, co-unit sharers, etc.) the occupancy becomes 11,750 units -- if half of that goes downtown and half goes to other nodal developments then downtown should have a fairly regular growth demanding about 5,875 units per year. Since growth is not a straight line phenomenon but is a percentage over the previous year's expansion, 2019 should have a demand of about 4,890 units in the downtown area -- about 10 buildings the size of the Sky Residences development. How many will be completed in 2019? By my count there will be 7 occupy-able highrise structures completed this year downtown totaling 1,518 units. Assuming that there is an equal number of units built-out in low-rise developments, we are at around 3,000 units -- a shortfall of about 1,900 units (greater than the number of units in highrise being built for the current year). Little wonder that there is a mad rush going on to build more residential units downtown. And Edmonton is the most hotel-deficient major City in all of Canada -- hence the myriad proposals for new structures in that regard. There will be only two major hotel openings downtown in 2019 -- the Hyatt conversion of the former office building and the new Marriott, both well positioned in the core area to do exceptional business. In summary, Edmonton has a long way to go to meet demand and, as the construction boom continues, the demand will feed upon itself pushing upward from the low end of standard deviation.
Look at the new activity on the entertainment scene post-Rogers Place opening and apart from hotel offerings and pubs and restaurants -- RAM, the new Library, the expansion to MacEwan University, the expansion of the Winspear Centre, the new Roxy theatre, the Ukrainian Museum, the two Art conversions in the Quarters and the Ice District Plaza. Downtown Edmonton's cachet is on the rise in a very dramatic way. Who wouldn't want to live downtown? The current spate of proposals are barely scratching the surface of pent-up demand. And all of this will lean hard on alternative transportation opportunities.
