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The Pandemic Will Change American Retail Forever

The big will get bigger as mom-and-pops perish and shopping goes virtual. In the short term, our cities will become more boring. In the long term, they might just become interesting again.

April 27, 2020

 
This Is How The Gap Dies
It’s possible America’s most iconic retailer might not survive this

Meanwhile, a growing number of companies are simply skipping rent payments. These reportedly range from gym chain Equinox to Staples to the Cheesecake Factory to Dick’s Sporting Goods to Petco to Victoria’s Secret — and, as noted, Gap Inc. By one estimate, malls heavily reliant on “non-essential tenants” have only managed to collect 10 to 25% of April rent.
 
Roots closing seven U.S. stores, reports $44.6M fourth-quarter loss

The Canadian Press April 29, 2020

TORONTO — Roots Corp. is permanently closing seven of its U.S. stores and says it will focus predominately on e-commerce in the U.S.

It says it is closing its stores in Boston, Washington and Chicago, as well as its pop-up location in Woodbury Common, N.Y.

Roots says it believes online sales in the near term is the best approach to U.S. market, but it will keep its two long-standing stores in Michigan and Utah, where they have well-established customer bases.

The announcement came as the retailer posted a loss of $44.6 million or $1.06 per share for the quarter ended Feb. 1 compared with a profit of $18.3 million or 43 cents per share in the same quarter a year earlier.

Sales totalled $127.5 million, down from $130.8 million in the same quarter a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, Roots says it earned $13.3 million or 31 cents per share, compared with $22.3 million or 53 per share a year earlier.

 
The Pandemic Will Change American Retail Forever

The big will get bigger as mom-and-pops perish and shopping goes virtual. In the short term, our cities will become more boring. In the long term, they might just become interesting again.

April 27, 2020

Whenever there's a crisis, there's an opportunity.
 
More than half of mall-based department stores could close in two years

April 30, 2020

Dive Brief:

  • Green Street Advisors now expects "about a little more than half of all mall-based department stores to close by the end of 2021," according to Vince Tibone, a retail specialist at the property research group.
  • Losing those anchors would have a "knockdown" effect as in-line mall tenants would be allowed to lower rents, he said during an April 29 webinar. In two years, traditional malls overall are likely to see a 20% decline in cash flow compared to 2019, which will "accelerate the demise of many malls," he said.
  • Other shopping center types won't be spared, Tibone said. Despite their current healthy sales, grocery anchors won't be much help to other tenants in strip centers, which could lose 15%, while those with big-box stores will probably see a 10% cash flow decline, he said.

 
More than half of mall-based department stores could close in two years

April 30, 2020

Dive Brief:

  • Green Street Advisors now expects "about a little more than half of all mall-based department stores to close by the end of 2021," according to Vince Tibone, a retail specialist at the property research group.
  • Losing those anchors would have a "knockdown" effect as in-line mall tenants would be allowed to lower rents, he said during an April 29 webinar. In two years, traditional malls overall are likely to see a 20% decline in cash flow compared to 2019, which will "accelerate the demise of many malls," he said.
  • Other shopping center types won't be spared, Tibone said. Despite their current healthy sales, grocery anchors won't be much help to other tenants in strip centers, which could lose 15%, while those with big-box stores will probably see a 10% cash flow decline, he said.

A good number of shopping malls will become makeshift squash courts and blank canvases for street artists.
 
J. Crew reportedly preps for bankruptcy

May 1, 2020
  • J. Crew is preparing to file for bankruptcy, according to reports by CNBC and The Wall Street Journal that cited anonymous sources. J. Crew did not immediately respond to Retail Dive's request for comment.
  • The apparel retailer could file as early as this weekend, though the Wall Street Journal reported that the retailer's board hadn't signed off on a plan as of Thursday evening.
  • The company is trying to secure $400 million to finance it through the court process, according to CNBC.

 
J. Crew reportedly preps for bankruptcy

May 1, 2020
  • J. Crew is preparing to file for bankruptcy, according to reports by CNBC and The Wall Street Journal that cited anonymous sources. J. Crew did not immediately respond to Retail Dive's request for comment.
  • The apparel retailer could file as early as this weekend, though the Wall Street Journal reported that the retailer's board hadn't signed off on a plan as of Thursday evening.
  • The company is trying to secure $400 million to finance it through the court process, according to CNBC.


Another retailer who makes dull-as-dishwater mainstream clothing bites the dust? Yawn. The Gap is hot on their heels!
 
Henry’s, Canada’s Top Photo Retailer, to Close a Quarter of Its Stores

MAY 02, 2020

Henry’s, the largest photography retailer in Canada, has announced that it will shutter 7 of its 29 physical stores in a strategic restructuring designed to help it survive in a “post-pandemic world.”

Founded in 1909, Henry’s has remained a family-owned and operated business while growing into a chain of 29 stores with hundreds of employees across Canada. But like most physical retail stores in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Henry’s has experienced a major blow to its sales.

 
Not surprising. J.Crew were pretty much an overpriced version of Abercrombie, who itself are facing troubles of its own. At the price points they were charging and towards their target market, it seemed inevitable that their business model will become unsustainable.
 
COVID-19 to have Permanent Impact on Canadian Retail Industry: Expert

May 04, 2020

“When this is over many consumers will have a newfound sense of thrift. Savings will be depleted; credit cards and lines of credit will be stretched, and stock portfolios and pensions will be decimated. You will see an extreme flight to value,” said Bruce Winder, Co-Founder & Partner, of Retail Advisors Network.

“Dollar chains, value grocers and used clothing stores will thrive. Many consumers will think twice before spending. They will make existing products last longer. More items will be repaired versus replaced. Those with cash will invest in the dip and make a fortune when stock markets return to some form of normal. All these factors will create a new retail landscape that further polarizes our industry and society between the wealthy and the wealth-less.”

------------
“For the retail industry to remain healthy we need immediate government funding through loans, deferrals and grants, more than has been offered already. For many, May 1 was a key date as rents and other expenses such as insurance, GST payments, electricity, payroll and more were due. The world, the country, businesses and citizens will take a collective sh*t kicking on balance sheets but we have no choice. It must be done in order to survive,” said Winder.

“Without such support, small and medium sized retailers and suppliers will run out of cash soon if they haven’t already, and will have closed permanently. This will create an unhealthy industry where we are left with only large retailers, suppliers and service providers. Too much power will be given to the select few. This will reduce choice, reduce service and create an oligopoly where prices increase. This will also impact jobs as big retail continues to turn to automation and e-commerce to save cost. The strong will buy the weak for a song and will grow even stronger.”

However, on the bright side, retail will survive but will take a different form, added Winder. There will be a reincarnation of business as retailers and suppliers sprout up and start again from the ashes. More retailers will be built on variable cost and capital light models. More businesses will be digitally native, at least to start. We will also see a renewed sense of collectivism in our society as people help each other more and try and shop locally.

 
These 27 retailers could file for bankruptcy as pandemic roils the industry

May 4, 2020
By Ben Unglesbee

GameStop (and EB Games by extension) has a very high chance of disappearing before the end of this year, mostly thanks to digital purchases of video games and Amazon for video game merchandise (and GameStop/EB Games already has a good chance of going under even without COVID-19, given that COVID-19 gave GameStop/EB Games a little boost due to stay-at-home orders in various states and provinces).

Party City is also hard hit, thanks to the class of 2020 becoming thrifty and low-key.

PetCo is hit very hard as well since there's much fewer demand to buy pets and pet supplies (since having pets is major upkeep (and stay-at-home orders present fewer opportunities to walk one's pet(s)), as well as an increase in abandoned pets due to pets being major upkeep). Looks like the baseball stadium in San Diego's going to get a new name within the next few years.
 
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