[EnviroTO]

Well, do you really think that the Pan Am voting is run as a community development project? Sounds odd.

Some vote for "legacy" which means environmental, social, sport, etc. Some vote for "you scratch my back and I will scratch yours". Some will vote solely based on the best technical plan. I have even heard one official comment that it was time for an English speaking country to host... as if language has anything to do with legacy, sport, or a technical plan.

If you are asking me if I believe that people from undeveloped or developing countries would vote for a country simply because it is not fully industrialized then YES... people will. The legacy left by hosting a major event in a developing country is significant. In Toronto in the year 2025 hardly anyone in the city will remember the Pan Am Games. Would the Pan Am officials like the games to be remembered and change a city and its citizens? I think they would.

Pan Am Games are below Toronto's ability... we may as well be trying to win Hockeyville 2010. Toronto isn't challenging itself by going after the Pan Am Games and has produced a bid which is underwhelming compared to its 2008 bid. I think a group of people from sports bodies which are all about doing your best might look negatively upon a group which does not aim high.

It would be nice if the awarding of games was based on not hosting in the same region twice in a three game period and was awarded based on a scoring system... but it is not.

 

[jn_12]

I think four things are different about the Rio situation than the timeline you present:

1) Rio built their facilities (or most of them) to Olympic standards and had a stated goal that this would be a precurser to an Olympic hosting. We are building much smaller venues (the track and field stadium is only, what, 15k capacity and in a city not called Toronto) and have not clearly stated we want these venues in place for a future Olympics like Rio did ( we have said we want to get on the map and get experience hosting things but not a clear statement of future Olympic intents);

Agree here. They had a goal and it seems like we're avoiding the idea of using the Pan Ams as a stepping stone for political reasons. I think (or at least hope) there will only be a couple salvageable pieces of Pan Am infrastructure that could be used for the Olympics. At the very least they should be upgradable.

2) The facilities built were all within a 25km radius of Rio....so it was clearly Pan Am Rio....a future Olympic city. Our facilities are all over the Golden Horshoe in a much more spread out fashion than I think the Olympics have ever accepted.

Agreed. This is probably the main reason why a Pan Ams won't help us at all.

3) Unlike Rio, we are (neither) a country nor a continent that has not hosted Olympics....so we don't have the "fresh factor";

As a country, no, but as a city we are for sure a "fresh" city. I think it would be difficult to name a city as big and prominent as Toronto (especially one as important to its own country) that hasn't hosted an Olympics. I think Canada is unique because the country is so diverse physically, and you can get a different flavour to the games depending on the city.

3) By the time the decision came (today) the Rio Pan Am games had already been and gone. So their success/failure/whatever was already a matter of record and their hosting abilities could be judged. If I have the timeline right, the decision on 2020 will be made in +/-2103....2 years before any Pan Am games will be held in Toronto/Horseshoe so our ability to host will still be theoretical. Our ability to build and deliver might be more clear but our ability to host will still be a question.

As a side note, that ability to deliver will (IMO) be a real issue to the IOC. These are people with long memories. I have discussed this matter in the transportation forums of this site but the fact that we made a big deal of some infrastructure projects the last time that we promised would be funded and built prior to the 2008 Olympics irrespective of if we won the bid and then did not deliver on that (the Front Street extension was outright cancelled and the Union Station second platform is just now being planned) will impact on their view of our ability and integrity when we make future promises/representations.

I don't think that's an issue at all. I think the IOC has a short and broad memory. The Front Street Extension is a distant memory already to Torontonians so I highly doubt the IOC would be looking back trying to remember what that was. I've never heard of this being an issue with other cities that have run after losing a prior bid, and I don't see why it would be a defining factor in Toronto not getting a 2020 games. Frankly, I think bids are remembered in a broad way. Toronto's will be remembered as being technically sound and very athlete oriented, which is a great rep to have when re-bidding.

 

[TOareaFan]

As a country, no, but as a city we are for sure a "fresh" city. I think it would be difficult to name a city as big and prominent as Toronto (especially one as important to its own country) that hasn't hosted an Olympics. I think Canada is unique because the country is so diverse physically, and you can get a different flavour to the games depending on the city.

Until Africa hosts an Olympics....their "fresh territory" status will hover over all future bids.....that is all I am saying. As for Canada....we will be bidding for our 4th Olympics....I am getting an impression that they like us hosting winter Olympics because it fits the world image of Canada (being a winter country) and we are a bit of a go-to nation for those because so much of the developed world simply can't host those games.

So, if my feeling is right, the same way they like to return the summer Olympics to America and Europe to appease their sponsors, I am guessing that Canada is the winter eqivalent.....just a feeling not based on anything else.

I don't think that's an issue at all. I think the IOC has a short and broad memory. The Front Street Extension is a distant memory already to Torontonians so I highly doubt the IOC would be looking back trying to remember what that was. I've never heard of this being an issue with other cities that have run after losing a prior bid, and I don't see why it would be a defining factor in Toronto not getting a 2020 games. Frankly, I think bids are remembered in a broad way. Toronto's will be remembered as being technically sound and very athlete oriented, which is a great rep to have when re-bidding.

Your response was to too different aspects....my main point is that by the time we bid for 2020 we still won't have proven we can be a successful host as our Pan Am games will still be a few years away. In making that point I split ability to host and ability to deliver as too separate points (since by then we will be a long way down the road on the delivery side).....my only point on the previously undelivered promises was that, perhaps, the Pan Ams will defer attention away from those previous unkept promises.

As to whether those promises hurting us or not....we should remember that these bids are always a competition and we will be vying against other cities that also want the games. They, undoubtedly, will include research into the past of their competitor (Toronto) in their work.....when they are schmoozing for votes and someone says "Toronto is promising 'X' " their strategy will/should be to say "Well Toronto does not always honour their promises....for example when they bid for 2008 they promised......"

It is a negative that any future Toronto bid will have to develop a good answer for.....whether or not the cancelled/delayed projects matter(ed) to us.....our competition will attempt to make it matter to the IOC.

 

[afransen]

Believe it or not, but Europe has a decent chance of hosting in 2020. It really is high time the games came back to North America by then, but it is quite likely Europe will succeed. I'm not too optimistic about South Africa. The country is still a basketcase, both economically and politically.

Depending on what the competition is from the USA (if it's a second tier city like Houston, etc.) it might not be too difficult for Toronto to win.

 

[afransen]

Until Africa hosts an Olympics....their "fresh territory" status will hover over all future bids.....that is all I am saying. As for Canada....we will be bidding for our 4th Olympics....I am getting an impression that they like us hosting winter Olympics because it fits the world image of Canada (being a winter country) and we are a bit of a go-to nation for those because so much of the developed world simply can't host those games.

So, if my feeling is right, the same way they like to return the summer Olympics to America and Europe to appease their sponsors, I am guessing that Canada is the winter eqivalent.....just a feeling not based on anything else.





Your response was to too different aspects....my main point is that by the time we bid for 2020 we still won't have proven we can be a successful host as our Pan Am games will still be a few years away. In making that point I split ability to host and ability to deliver as too separate points (since by then we will be a long way down the road on the delivery side).....my only point on the previously undelivered promises was that, perhaps, the Pan Ams will defer attention away from those previous unkept promises.

As to whether those promises hurting us or not....we should remember that these bids are always a competition and we will be vying against other cities that also want the games. They, undoubtedly, will include research into the past of their competitor (Toronto) in their work.....when they are schmoozing for votes and someone says "Toronto is promising 'X' " their strategy will/should be to say "Well Toronto does not always honour their promises....for example when they bid for 2008 they promised......"

It is a negative that any future Toronto bid will have to develop a good answer for.....whether or not the cancelled/delayed projects matter(ed) to us.....our competition will attempt to make it matter to the IOC.

That would be ridiculous. Toronto's bid plan was contingent on being awarded the Games. No sane person would expect Toronto's leadership to feel bound by a bid proposal that was rejected.

 

[Second_in_pie]

Believe it or not, but Europe has a decent chance of hosting in 2020. It really is high time the games came back to North America by then, but it is quite likely Europe will succeed. I'm not too optimistic about South Africa. The country is still a basketcase, both economically and politically. .

Aren't basket cases that can be improved one of the draws for olympics? It'd be good for South Africa to get the olympics, maybe for 2024? Though I'm pretty set on 2020 being Toronto's time

One big question I have is what's the Muslim world's view on the olympics? What about Olympics in Egypt or the UAE? Both countries could easily support the olympics, and the pros of the olympics could definitely have big (positive) affects. Maybe Alexandria, Cairo, Abhu Dhabi or Dubai? Maybe even Syria or Saudia Arabia could get the Olympics, as they are both relatively stable and have the money to host them. Though I have to admit, I don't quite think that anywhere in Africa outside of Egypt or South Africa is fit to host the Olympics, there are probably many other possibilities in the rest of the world.

I recently read an article in the star (I think) that interviewed the winner of the IOC's video contest (or something) and she said that she believed that the Olympics would move away from Europe and North America and move into developing nations that could actually use the pressure of creating an olympic-friendly environment and the resulting improvements the olympics bring. I think that's a great vision, and could further develop international sports commissions. I love all these things, whether it be the World Cup, the Pan Am Games or the Olympics, and as the world's population and economic output continue to grow massively, there'll be more and more room for more and more of these huge sports venues, which means that the wealth can be spread more evenly around the globe, and of course more awesome performances to watch!

I'll stop my rant before it starts, because I don't think my world vision applies very directly to a) the Pan Am Games, b) Toronto's bid in them, c) the Olympics, d) Toronto getting them in 2020 or 2024, or e) Rio getting the 2016 Olympics. But that's just my two cents there

 

[jn_12]

Believe it or not, but Europe has a decent chance of hosting in 2020. It really is high time the games came back to North America by then, but it is quite likely Europe will succeed. I'm not too optimistic about South Africa. The country is still a basketcase, both economically and politically.

Depending on what the competition is from the USA (if it's a second tier city like Houston, etc.) it might not be too difficult for Toronto to win.

I agree, South Africa is a long shot, and the concerns/problems that surrounded the lead up to the 2010 World Cup wouldn't be ignored. However, I think holding the Summer games in Europe 3 times (Athens, London and 2020) before North America gets it again, doesn't make a lot of sense considering how the IOC tends to vote.They also tend to reward cities/countries for prior participation in the process (only London and Sydney hadn't made previous bids since 1990 and then gone on to win, but in both cases the country made bids for almost every recent games up to that point). To me, only a bid from Paris, which has bid and lost as much as Toronto has, could put a fight. Maybe Madrid could as well considering how well it did this time around, but I think geography could have a greater impact on 2020 than 2016. Just my opinion though. Really, without any bids or anything concrete to base it on, it's impossible to argue based on geography really.

As for the US, I think only a New York bid would give Toronto a great fight.

 

[toforumer]

After today's decision to award Rio the games and knock Chicago out the first round that the relationship between the IOC and the United States is pretty bad. It was basically a slap to the face for the Americans. I personally believe there will be no American bid for the 2020 Olympics. Toronto should capitalize on this anti-American sentiment within the IOC at the moment.

Toronto's only strong competitor for 2020 would be Rome,Italy, who have announced today that they will be bidding for the 2020 Summer Olympics. Madrid most likely will throw their name into the mix again.

This field is much much easier than the all MIGHTY Beijing when Toronto went after the 2008 Olympics.


And another thing to note: Paris officials said they wouldn't be bidding for the 2020 Olympics but would wait to bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics to celebrate the 100th Anniversary since the last time Paris had hosted the games.

Now my question to you guys is this. Do you guys think the Euro-centric IOC members would want to wait for 2024 to award a European city the Summer Olympics rather than 2020 considering Paris, who have bid several times recently and lost, would be the perfect setting to celebrate the 2024 Olympics for the 100th Anniversary since Paris 1924.

I think the stars may be aligning for a North American 2020 Olympics. This may be the right time for Toronto.

 

[jn_12]

you would think that sentimentality would matter a bit re: Paris 2024, but Athens didn't get the games when it was the 100th anniversary.


You're right though, the stars are aligning. I was talking about this with my girlfriend who doesn't really want the olympics here (she's actually kinda on the fence, because we'd both benefit career-wise from it). The Olympics aren't going away, and so long as Toronto hasn't hosted them, we will always have this weighing on our shoulders. With every passing Olympics, the pressure to bid is just going to increase, and it won't go away until we get them.

For the anti-Olympic folk, the only way you're going to stop hearing about the Olympics is after we've held them. I really think we need to get this weight off our shoulders and say we've done it and don't need to do it again. To me, it's the only way we'll ever move beyond this fascination with hosting a games. Get it out of the way and we can all move on and maybe live happily ever after.

 

[EnviroTO]

I don't think it was anti-American sentiment that led to Chicago's defeat. It was the votes for Madrid which stayed with Madrid to the end that killed Chicago. I was completely surprised that after 2012 London and with Barcelona Olympics still fresh it people's minds that Madrid could solidify so many votes in the first round. It seems very questionable to me... like something shady was going on. I am not surprised by Chicago loosing or Rio winning but the voting for Madrid seems messed up.

With time having passed since Vancouver 2010 it is possible that Toronto 2020 could do well. I have heard some say London 2012 was won because it was safe and they were unsure what the end result in Beijing would be although I'm not sure how true that is. With Rio being a more risky venue (transportation and crime risks) they may choose to go safe in 2020. I still think Toronto's stars wont align until 2032. There is India, South Africa, USA, and Europe (always) which will have clout in the coming bids. That said, we might as well be like Istanbul and keep bidding as long as Canada or the US didn't host the previous games. As long as we keep getting sponsors to pay for the bid and keep getting decent press exposure each time it is basically an advertisement for the city with the chance of getting the games.

 

[toforumer]

Actually the relations between the IOC and the USOC aren't the greatest. Most believe this is why Chicago was knocked out early.

C'mon now!!! Chicago had a solid bid. Is a first round exit justifiable? It makes no sense. The IOC just doesn't want the United States to have another Olympics anytime soon. They've already hosted a bunch and plus there is this big issue of revenue sharing that the USOC isn't ponying up to the IOC.

 

[TOareaFan]

That would be ridiculous. Toronto's bid plan was contingent on being awarded the Games. No sane person would expect Toronto's leadership to feel bound by a bid proposal that was rejected.

Well, when the Prime Minister, the Premier and the Mayor each stand there with big cardboard cheques telling a gathered press conference that these projects are for Olympic preparedness and will happen regardless of our bid success....sane people do have a right to expect them to be done......and then that does not happen....we run the risk to have any future competitor bid city to propose it as a measuring stick of our reliability as far as promises are concerned.

 

[Irishmonk]

I personally don't think Chicago losing will help Toronto in 2020 (if indeed we even want the Games.) I doubt the IOC will grant 2 games in a row to the Western Hemisphere. Also, as someone noted up thread, the Pan Am Games won't help us since the 2020 bid is held in 2013.

Tokyo will almost certainly bid again in 2020, as well as a plethora of other ambitious Asian and Middle Eastern cities like Bombay, Istanbul, Dubai, Kuala Lampur... Africa could also be a factor in either 2020 or 2024 depending on how well the 2010 World Cup goes.

The cycle, I believe, will go: 2016 South America--2020 Asia--2024 Africa--2028 Europe or N America--2032 N America or Europe.

If Africa is unable to present a strong bid for 2024 then Toronto could have a chance then. Otherwise we'll have to wait until 2028--at which point Europe will be doing cartwheels. The IOC could also stick N America with another Winter Games in that period just to get us out of the way for awhile.

Truthfully, predicting Olympic Games cities is a mugs game and nobody really has a clue.

 

[toforumer]

South Africa is struggling to organize the FIFA World Cup. I doubt the IOC will reward another new frontier like Rio in such short time. They will select a safe choice for host city for 2020.

And going by your logic, I guess all the European candidates for 2020 will suffer then cause the vote is taking place in 2013, 1 year after the London 2012 Olympics.

 

[adma]

I wonder how much the Atlanta (and maybe SLC) mess affected the decision on Chicago.

And as for Rio, they'd better be prepared for wild monkey attacks as per the Simpsons...