I agree jn, however the main difference is Greece yields no power. France on the other is arguably the most influential European nation over the past 2-3 years, I'm using the IMF and the euro crisis as examples.
Just like South Africa was a shoo-in for 2020, i see Paris as a shoo-in for 2024.
Perhaps, but I'd say Germany more fits that role and it didn't do much for Munich's bid. I think the problem with a Paris bid is that the Olympics would be lost in a city like that. The IOC likes to be able to boast of transforming a city or even a country, like Barcelona or Beijing. Even London's Olympics featured and immense regeneration of the East End. Paris would be pretty much the same the day before the Olympics as after. I'd also think there would be problems, as in any Western country, with anti-Olympics protesters. In some ways, that makes a developing world country where most people are genuinely excited a
less risky choice.
For 2020, I think Toronto would stand a decent chance. Vancouver went quite well in the end, and the enthusiasm of the crowds will certainly give some encouragement to the IOC. North America hasn't hosted since 1996, which would play a role, and Toronto is within a day's drive of 200 million of the wealthiest people on earth, so it's quite a market. We've got a world-class airport, a new five-star hotel going up seemingly every year (a big change compared with our previous bids), and we should never underestimate the multiculturalism angle. Our bid would no doubt be humbler than that of some other cities, but we're pretty likely to get it built on time.
As for our competitors, I think Cape Town would have been formidable. It's a gorgeous city with excellent infrastructure. The same cannot be said about Durban, which I find to be a baffling choice for South Africa.
Madrid will again be a formidable competitor but the Samaranch effect will be gone by then and Europe (well, Britain) will have hosted only 8 years earlier. On the other hand, it has amazing infrastructure and the last Olympics held in Spain went very well.
Qatar will be a contender, especially after their World Cup win, but recent events in the Middle East might give the IOC pause (imagine if they had awarded the World Cup to Bahrain right now) and the heat is obviously a factor. I wouldn't count them out, for the obvious financial reasons and because of the appeal of an Olympics in the Arab world.
Dubai is similar though it is obviously much more of a real city with large attractions and infrastructure than Doha. It will suffer from its recent financial crisis but if it's back-stopped by Abu Dhabi, they'd have a fighting chance.
Istanbul would also be a very interesting choice as a first Olympics in a Muslim country while remaining relatively close to Continental Europe and in a stable, democratic country. Turkey's recent tension with many Western countries may hurt their chances, though it might also boost their support from the developing world.
Delhi doesn't have a chance after the Commonwealth games. I don't know about Casablanca but if they refused Prague and Istanbul last time for their infrastructure, I can't imagine them giving it to them.
And fortunately this time, we won't have a mayor like Mel Lastman around making what could be construed as racist comments about Africans just before the vote.
I'm not so sure about that...