I get it now. Is that assuming that the end point for the 60% is somewhere south of Bloor?
Great question. I'm not familiar enough with the models TTC/Metrolinx/UofT use to tell you.
I would assume, based mostly on Sheppard observations, that Eglinton ridership growth over the next couple decades will have a destination pattern similar to today's Eglinton bus riders. New development will most likely be residential with an occasional shopping segment here and there.
I would have thought that Crosstown would enable new commuting patterns to uptown destinations more than downtown - making uptown employment more attractive, and growing with uptown development.
I don't doubt it will make that section of town more attractive than it is today but I personally would be extremely surprised if it outstripped the attractiveness of Union Station for office space. I think the best case for Yonge & Eglinton would be a result similar to Bloor & Yonge but with a lower price-point.
Fair enough - The question might be better put as what would one do if the ridership exceeded what one could do with a three-"unit"-Flexity LRT specification. One would be to look for a higher capacity vehicle that would fit the current 90M length, low-floor, overhead electrical envelope. Another would be to install a more sophisticated traffic control system that allowed closer headways. This kind of option is "affordable". The option that is doable, but may never be "affordable", is lengthening the platforms. There is too much stuff in the way - all of it movable, but at considerable cost.
Eglinton is getting a decent signalling/control system (same as Yonge IIRC) for the tunnel chunk. Of course, in 30 years I'm sure better systems will be on the market.
Vehicles can possibly be widened for some expense (rebuild platform edges) in the tunnel. I'm not sure what street-level modifications might be needed. Of course trains with open gangways and 2 cabs (no mid-train cabs) could be used.
My feeling is that it'll be 50+ years before Eglinton becomes a destination street.
That said, if it comes down to wider rolling stock, I'd much prefer to see additional investment in East/West lines (Finch extension, perhaps Lawrence or York Mills LRT, maybe even a GO mid-town corridor, ...)