These doom and gloom folks couldn't be found on UT 3 or 4 years back. The reality is times are really bad so how could you not expect this to become part of the discussion. A building(s) like this will have a hard time getting started in this economy.
 
If this one misses this cycle then hopefully it will come in the next cycle with a design that's different from most of our recent condos.
 
Personally, I've been UT since a few months after it started, and yes, I'm definitely a "doom and gloom" guy, but I try to look at the brighter side and allow for optimism, even if I don't share it.

In a discussion of construction projects in the city, it would be hard in today's environment to not have the economy enter into the picture. What are we supposed to do? Just assume that everything will be built as planned, on-time, without delays? If I were Adma, I would find a link to the WWII song "Pack up your Troubles in your old Kit Bag and Smile, Smile, Smile" and insert it here.

If this project misses the cycle, then it will re-appear in another form in the future. Chances are, people looking at the current rendering in, say, 10 years from now, will be saying "Boy, we are lucky that didn't get built!".
 
In terms of the planning for new condos in the City of Toronto there has been a steep decline in the last 6 months. There's a bunch of approved projects that have yet to be built and that has clearly spilled into planning. It's going to take time for the existing condos that have been puchased by speculators to be occupied and for there to be enough confidence in the market to convince renters to become buyers.
 
It's not a case of "doom and gloom" - it's reality that this project which is still a long way from marketing as it's only in the initial planning stages now and could be at least a year away from any approvals and there is a lot of uncertainty going forward based on a number of factors.

1. There are just over 19,100 new unsold condos currently on the market - that is a huge inventory problem that will take a few years of strong sales to sort itself out;
2. There were 507 total high-rise condos sold throughout the GTA in January and February spread through approximately 300 separate projects (anecdotal evidence suggests that there has been a slight pick-up in March);
3. The Cumberland project will be geared towards the high-end of the market - that's simply a reality given the land value and high costs associated with demolition of existing properties and any potential remediation costs;
4. Given the length of the planning process and current market freeze this project is likely to not be in sales prior to July 1, 2010. Transition policies have not been outlined by the province, but there is a very good chance that most units in this project will be over both the $400k & $500k thresholds and therefore subject to the HST - essentially an additional 6% in brand new taxes. The upper end of the market is going to take the new HST on the chin and that will have a significant impact on sales;

Sorry to not be a skyscraper geek cheerleader, but I'm not a doom and gloomer either - there are specific trends, tax policy issues and facts that have a real impact on both developer and consumer investment decisions. There is not a doubt in my mind this is a prime site and something positive will happen, I'm just not going to hold my breath that it will happen very quickly.
 
It's been almost a year since the below article was published. I hope the wheels are still in motion for this project. :)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article60274.ece


DEREK RAYMAKER

From Friday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Oct. 24, 2008 12:00AM EDT

Last updated on Friday, Mar. 13, 2009 10:40AM EDT


The layers upon layers of gilded luxury that drape Yorkville Avenue have come to symbolize wealth and opulence in Toronto. Over the past 10 years, developers have been busily snapping up every vacant space in the affluent shopping district between Charles Street and Yorkville Avenue, west of Avenue Road, to build suitably luxurious condominium suites that meld with the designer boutiques, jewellers and bistros.

What is surprising is how this deluge of pearls and Prada ends abruptly at Bay Street. You can pick out delicate pastries and gourmet-grade prosciutto in Pusateri's Fine Foods at Yorkville and Bay, but when you cross Bay Street and walk east, you are surrounded by shopping arcades and crumbling parking lots.

That is about to change, starting with the Four Seasons Private Residences on the corner of Yorkville Avenue and Bay on the site of a former parking lot. Since launching sales in the five-star hotel-condominium a year ago, Menkes Developments has sold 80 per cent of the suites, even though prices start at more than $1-million, or $1,400 a square foot - roughly three times the Toronto average.

Now, Oxford Properties is aiming to redevelop its Cumberland Terrace shopping mall one block south. It's currently home to hobby shops, discount electronics stores and basement food court. Oxford representatives freely admit that the commercial property, which it has owned since 1999, is a troubling eyesore.

The company wants to replace it with two glass condominium towers - 45 and 36 storeys - along with nine residential villas to be perched atop a street-level retail platform.

The upscale Holt Renfrew store, located on Bloor Street to the south, has expressed interest in expanding into the space as an anchor tenant. Other shops would open on to Cumberland Street as opposed to the indoor mall that currently exists.

No matter how you look at it, it's an ambitious undertaking at a time when developers - or more accurately, their bankers - might be considering reining in grand projects aimed at niche markets. Add to that some structural obstacles to construction just beneath the surface.

"The challenges of the site have made redevelopment a slow process," said John Filipetti, Oxford's vice-president of development. "The subway, technically, is very challenging. There is very little terra firma down there."

Bregman + Hamann Architects have been conscripted to design striking towers in a neighbourhood that is already a notch above the current standards of residential condo development, but also to accommodate the subway tunnel that runs directly underneath the site.

Mr. Filipetti says it could be 18 months before sales can be launched because it will take that long for the design, rezoning and site-plan approval process to play out.

"Optimistically, we're looking at a late 2009 [construction] start, maybe early 2010," he said.

It's far too early to lay out a price range, but Mr. Filipettis said that a good portion of the project - including the upper floors and the villa-style residences - will be aimed at the high end of the market.

"The villas are like houses, with their own terraces and courtyards, and will be targeted at the [super-luxury] market segment," he said.

Pulling the affluent, mixed-use communities of Yorkville east to Yonge Street has been a long-term goal for the city of Toronto, and Mr. Filipetti reports that municipal officials have been extremely helpful in stickhandling a rezoning application.

The design also will need to undergo a peer-review process to assess whether it is adding to the quality of life in the surrounding community.

Other market experts say that the Cumberland Terrace redevelopment will be watched closely not just because of its scale, but because of its design and engineering.

"The original Yonge and Bloor subway lines were never designed to accommodate buildings over them," said Barry Lyon, a leading marketing consultant for high-rise residential developments. "Oxford has had to come up with some creative engineering to bridge the tunnel."

But with Yorkville sites west of Bay extremely hard to come by after a decade-long building boom, the Prada crowd and those who wish to house them don't have much choice.
 
The wheels are still in motion, they are still working through different development options. However, it is still likely 3 or 4 years before a launch of the residential portion.
 
That means it's still at least 5 or 6 years until I can drive a bulldozer into this thing! Patience 42!

Oh what a world, what a world.

42
 
I'm not completely familiar with the Bloor mini-PATH, but isn't the only connection from Manulife Centre, etc to Bay station through Cumberland Terrace? And what about the connection to Bloor-Yonge (I'm less sure on this one)? If it won't be an indoor mall anymore will those connections be lost?
 
It's been awhile, but I'm almost certain that the Manulife Centre actually connects to the Holt Renfrew Centre, and that there's a connection to Bay Station through there.

And strictly speaking 2BE connects to the CIBC tower underground, which no one (that I'm aware of) has proposed demolishing. Even tho they're all part of the same development Cumberland Terrace sits to the north of the CIBC tower's footprint, so redeveloping it shouldn't affect the mini-PATH.
 
Yes, Holts beckons as you emerge from the tunnel.

I suppose the worse case scenario would be the Hazelton Lanes example - where they took a smallish, high-end mall and, in expanding it, attracted new retailers who turned off the shoppers who formerly went there, sending the place into a downward spiral. Retail greed, gotta love it.
 
You can walk underground from Park Road (the east end of the HBC Concourse) then as far as the west end of Bay subway station. The area between Yonge & Bay splits on the lower level and also has an upper level which faces Cumberland Ave. The south lower level will lead you into the Manulife Centre which basically ends just short of Charles Street. It really is a mini-PATH down there with most every service one would need if they lived or worked in any of the buildings attached to these malls, except a video store.
I look forward to the end of that ratty mall between Yonge & Bay (Cumberland Terrace) but I really hope that they manage to retain the underground connections in some form.
 
While in University at Vic, I had friends who lived in the Marriott and once inside the Manulife Center at the Bay/Bloor Radio entrance, we would joke that we were 'in the building.' Ahh, those were the days.
 
Actually, if you had a metropass you could walk from Park Rd. all the way to 110 Bloor W without going outside.
 
from today's Daily Commercial News....

APARTMENT BUILDINGS Proj: 9091568-4

Toronto, Metro Toronto Reg ON PREPARING PLANS

Cumberland Terrace, 2 Bloor St, Cumberland Ave, M4W 3E2
$87,000,000 est

Note: Preliminary design is ongoing. Owner is seeking City Council rezoning approvals. Owner anticipates zoning approvals January, 2010. Owner will undertake market analysis before seeking Council approvals for site plan. Schedules for Working drawings, tender for Gen Cont and construction will be determined based on approvals and improved market conditions. Further update Spring, 2010.

Project: proposed construction of residential apartment buildings. This project represents the redevelopment of the Cumberland Terrace shopping mall, and will include construction of two glass-clad apartment buildings, one 45 storeys and one 36 storeys. Nine residential villas will also be built above a street-level retail podium as part of the project. Demolition of existing buildings on the site will proceed prior to construction of this project.
Scope: 800,000 square feet; 45 storeys; 2 structures
Development: New
Category: Apartment bldgs; Retail, wholesale services
 

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