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Opening days are over-rated. No one remembers what happened on the Line 1 or Line 2 opening days, decades later, they just ride it and are glad that they are there.
This is exactly how I'm going to feel once the Hurontario LRT opens. Not one for crowds, just glad that it's there.
 
I hope you are right about terminus dwell time, and wrong for the other stuff. I heard 21 minutes for the underground and above ground portion for a total of 42 minutes moving from @smallspy , who seems quite reputable. I guess that was Crosslinx or Metrolinx operating the line at that point? I don't know 100% who exactly is operating Line 5 to get 49 minutes now, but I assume it's the TTC.

If you're splitting the time for below and above ground sections at 24 and 25 minutes, instead of 21 minutes and 28 minutes respectively, then there would be less potential time savings by implementing better operations, TSP etc... on the above ground section. I fail to see how they could squeeze significant time savings, if any, out of the ATC underground section. Assuming we can only squeeze 8 minutes out of the above ground section, since the original above ground time was supposed to be ~17 minutes, then the realistic end-to-end time after potential Q1 2026 fixes would be 41 minutes. That's still slower than the 38 minutes spoken about for years by Metrolinx.

EDIT: forgot to say, L6 Finch West currently averages closer to 11-13 km/h, not 13-15. Which relates to my prediction that the Eglinton surface section will take 28 minutes at least for 7.7km.

Not an expert, but based on Finch, I see the most likely scenario as being limited improvements before launch, and bunching on the above ground impacting operations below ground. Many trains are forced to short turn. Public outrage similar to Finch but a much larger level. I hope I'm wrong.
 
I hope you are right about terminus dwell time, and wrong for the other stuff. I heard 21 minutes for the underground and above ground portion for a total of 42 minutes moving from @smallspy , who seems quite reputable. I guess that was Crosslinx or Metrolinx operating the line at that point? I don't know 100% who exactly is operating Line 5 to get 49 minutes now, but I assume it's the TTC.

If you're splitting the time for below and above ground sections at 24 and 25 minutes, instead of 21 minutes and 28 minutes respectively, then there would be less potential time savings by implementing better operations, TSP etc... on the above ground section. I fail to see how they could squeeze significant time savings, if any, out of the ATC underground section. Assuming we can only squeeze 8 minutes out of the above ground section, since the original above ground time was supposed to be ~17 minutes, then the realistic end-to-end time after potential Q1 2026 fixes would be 41 minutes. That's still slower than the 38 minutes spoken about for years by Metrolinx.

EDIT: forgot to say, L6 Finch West currently averages closer to 11-13 km/h, not 13-15. Which relates to my prediction that the Eglinton surface section will take 28 minutes at least for 7.7km.
This math makes sense as well - I would be surprised if the TTC is operating even in the ATC portion at the same time Metrolinx predicted though. Part of Finch's problem is that the TTC operates the line too conservatively - something that, like how it has bled into subway operations over the last decade, will bleed into the TTCs operation of the line even underground.

Part of the problem is TSP, a lot of it is the TTCs recent trend of operational mismanagement with 0 emphasis on travel times. Any marginal safety or maintenance improvement that can be achieved, including anything that increases travel time, is what is optioned right now in the TTC across their operational portfolio. I'm hopeful that Finch is the "straw that broke the camels back" on this issue that leads to changes in the TTC's management of their services, because their operational practices have led to significantly slower service across their network over the last decade. It's been most noticeable in their Streetcar network, but the subway network also suffers from it (most notably including the slow zones, something almost unheard of in the organization only a few short years ago).
 
Why does round trip time matter including recovery time at the terminus? Normal travel is going to be from point A to point B without the passenger waiting at the terminus to go back. And even if you were starting at a terminus, or needed to turn around and go back the other way for some reason, wouldn't there likely already be another train that would be ready to leave sooner that you could simply board and avoid the waiting time?
The 112 minutes includes extra recovery time at terminuses which are usually longer than the scheduled headways afaik. Someone else (@innsertnamehere ) mentioned 14 minutes which seems like an accurate deduction, so a round trip for the typical rider would be 98 minutes or 49 minutes one way.

Let me break this down again, because something clearly got lost in translation. 90 minutes was in the original contract for total round trip (for a train operator) as @innsertnamehere kindly reminded me. That lines up with the long advertised 38 minute end-to-end one way trip in this way: 90-38-38=14 minutes. This extra 14 minutes they deduced was the recovery time, which you could interpret as 7 minutes at each terminus after the end of each one way trip. From another perspective, this would instead be the time spent before the start of the next one way trip going back the other way. When we apply this understanding to the new 112 minute round trip (for the train operator), we get a round trip time of 98 minutes for the transit rider. 112-14=98. One way trips would then be 49 minutes, half of 98. You appear not to understand that even if you wanted to, you would not be able to ride the line any faster than that time theoretically, because the train would not leave the terminus station. The recovery time is there to maintain headways/consistent frequencies and reduce the effect of delays leading to bunching. This is why the recovery time at each terminus is longer than the scheduled headway time. In some transit lines, this allows for one train to always be ready at the terminus platform to take on outbound passengers, while the inbound train that just ended their revenue trip loops around non-revenue track beyond the terminus station platform.

Further evidence:
When you look at the subway scheduled "run time" on page 5/62 of the recent TTC Service Summary, you will see a number that is more than twice the time it takes for a trip from the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre to Finch or vice versa (Vaughan to Finch and Finch to Vaughan take slightly different times, but for the sake of the argument let's just pretend they're the exact same). That is because there is recovery time at the terminuses. For example, Line 1 "Monday-Friday morning peak period" it lists a "run time" of 158 minutes, which is significantly more than the 146-150 minute scheduled round trip for a passenger. The scheduled round trip is timed from the moment the train leaves the starting terminus to opening the doors at the end terminus. Now those are all scheduled and theoretical; actual trip times are virtually always longer, with reduced speed zones etc...

Any TTC staff, subway experts etc... feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

From TTC board meeting happening right now:

- Myers: what is the estimated run time for Line 5. TTC staff: contractual number for round trip time is 98 minutes during rush hour and 90 minutes outside rush hour
- The current schedule we have for RSD is currently scheduling 112 minutes round trip
 

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