micheal_can said:
Conversion to LRT was needed with Confederation Line. It was at crush load and still will be. Even after Phase 2, it will still be at crush load.
Ottawa should have gone with something like a subway type car. Hamilton's and Ion's are fine with LRVs.
Click to expand...
See:
"No brand new system should be designed to run at crush capacity for significant portions of the day (running trains at near-crush capacity while still having room to expand is different, see the Ontario Line, the Confederation Line, and potentially the Crosstown for the former)"

My entire point was that a system has to be usable for it to spur development. Ottawa's problem is largely due to the line being underbuilt for future demands (50 years into the future). Since it'll always be full, developers will be less likely to build transit-oriented development along the line. You're more likely to see development, but car-centred development.

the technology chosen for iON and Hamilton are fine, they just have to design the line well enough to ensure that it's notably faster than its predecessor, and more efficient.
 
salsa said:
Since it's pretty clear by now that the justification for cancelling was completely bunk and that the province has no intention to explain their numbers, you have to wonder what was the actual reason behind it. This comment I found in The Star is one possible theory which I hadn't considered till now:

"I think it will eventually emerge that the cancellation was actually due to pressure from Conservative-connected businesses in downtown Hamilton who didn't like the LRT, and that the province had to invent a cover story. You read it here first."
Click to expand...

Intersting conspiracy theory - but - If there were anti-LRT businesses, they had plenty of opportunity to say so during the original LRT debate. The Chamber of Commerce has come out with a strong pro LRT message. That wouldn’t have happened if those businesses were that influential. Possibly there are Cons in the non-central areas who oppose the LRT, along with many outside of the central area. If there are businesses that oppose, one would expect them to be mounting a public presence right now, so Ford can use that as proof that Hamilton is not behind LRT.
I’m sticking with the screwup theory - the Cons just wanted this killed, and this seemed like a good time - legislature not sitting, and media distracted by Toronto City Council. Maybe even playing off the tax hike, to distance themselves from that.

- Paul
 
When Toronto opened the original Yonge Subway (today's Line 1), they thought that they would be running 2 Gloucester car trains during the quieter off-peak periods, like Sunday nights. Turned out they needed to run 6-car trains during off-peak periods. 8-car trains were run during peak periods. Building for current capacity without room for expansion will just end up having problems.

subway-5501-01.gif

From link.
 

Mayor Fred Eisenberger releases LRT provincial cost estimates | City of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

HAMILTON, ON - Further to Monday’s cancellation by the Minister of Transportation of Hamilton’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) project, Mayor Fred Eisenberger is releasing the Province’s internal benchmarking estimates provided to the City of Hamilton on September 26, 2019. “On behalf of Council, I am...
www.hamilton.ca www.hamilton.ca

There are two attachments and they further detail the province's claims on the construction numbers.
 
Allandale25 said:
^
https://twitter.com/x/status/1207417956013137920
Click to expand...
Some random thoughts:

How is it that vehicles will cost 143M? For a 14 km line (trip time of 42 minutes at 20 km/h) that is projected to see service every 6 minutes, the line will need at least 14 trains, probably closer to 18. How is it that flexity freedom sized trains are going to cost 8 million dollars, especially when parts don't seem to be included? (they seem to be accounted for in the "Maintenance non-labor" cost section, which states that costs will be 132M.

Why are "Train Control" and "Communication" systems separate costs and why does the latter exceed 78M$

The biggest cost seems to be the utility relocation. I get that Hamilton is old, and a lot isn't known, but this one is concerning.

Why are they building 90m platforms? This line is projected to see 30K PPD on opening. At most it needs 60m platforms.

Why is a parking structure at McMaster included in this?

SCC 10, 20 seem fair, the issue with SCC 30 is the 60M for "Yard and Yard Track" Surely no more than 2 km of track is required for the yard, and while there's a significant portion of special track, this shouldn't be more than 20M$.
 
Streety McCarface said:
Some random thoughts:

...

Why are they building 90m platforms? This line is projected to see 30K PPD on opening. At most it needs 60m platforms.

...
Click to expand...

That's 30K today.


Even the Eglinton Crosstown station boxes are built for 5 car trains, though initial use will be 2 or 3 car trains.
 
W. K. Lis said:
Even the Eglinton Crosstown station boxes are built for 5 car trains, though initial use will be 2 or 3 car trains.
Click to expand...

Eglinton platforms can only be expanded easily to 3-car trains. The level track sections are long enough for 5-car trains, but the platforms cannot be made that long without a massive rebuilt.
 
Reecemartin said:
I think the interesting takeaway here is to compare how Waterloo Region grows differently from Hamilton with the ION. Clearly the trajectories were not the same to begin with but, it will be interesting to see how Waterloo likely becomes the regions second major urban area (Maybe it becomes the GTWA rather than GTHA)
Click to expand...

Indeed, that will be an interesting comparison to make.

In a way, Hamilton could see more "transformative" effect of LRT than Toronto is likely to see. In Toronto, replacing some of the busy bus lines with light rail makes sense purely from the transportation standpoint (faster trips and better handling of large rider volumes), but the land along LRT corridors won't become as desirable as some of the advocates hope for. The reason is that Toronto already has an extensive high-order transit system, and has quite a few still-available land parcels adjacent to the subway stations. Land near light rail just won't be special enough.

In Hamilton, this would be the only high-order transit line, running right through the downtown. That would define quite a few highly desirable locations.
 
Rainforest said:
Eglinton platforms can only be expanded easily to 3-car trains. The level track sections are long enough for 5-car trains, but the platforms cannot be made that long without a massive rebuilt.
Click to expand...

The station BOX would need to be rebuilt, but they wouldn't need to dig into the bedrock or soil to do so.
 
Rainforest said:
Indeed, that will be an interesting comparison to make.

In a way, Hamilton could see more "transformative" effect of LRT than Toronto is likely to see. In Toronto, replacing some of the busy bus lines with light rail makes sense purely from the transportation standpoint (faster trips and better handling of large rider volumes), but the land along LRT corridors won't become as desirable as some of the advocates hope for. The reason is that Toronto already has an extensive high-order transit system, and has quite a few still-available land parcels adjacent to the subway stations. Land near light rail just won't be special enough.

In Hamilton, this would be the only high-order transit line, running right through the downtown. That would define quite a few highly desirable locations.
Click to expand...
To this point, I'd predict that Hamilton LRT would have a more similar impact to Hamilton as the Yonge Line has had to Toronto, rather than say, what the Finch West LRT will.

Or perhaps the best comparison is indeed iON in Kitchener-Waterloo.
 
Rainforest said:
Eglinton platforms can only be expanded easily to 3-car trains. The level track sections are long enough for 5-car trains, but the platforms cannot be made that long without a massive rebuilt.
Click to expand...
W. K. Lis said:
The station BOX would need to be rebuilt, but they wouldn't need to dig into the bedrock or soil to do so.
Click to expand...
At that point they're probably just going to convert the line to the existing subway rolling stock with perhaps pantograph/standard gauge rolling stock. If ridership is that high on the corridor, and modifications of that magnitude are necessary, might as well go all out.

W. K. Lis said:
That's 30K today.
Click to expand...
That's 30K when it opens. (See Benefits of LRT When It Opens, 9.2M rides/year ~ 30K riders per weekday)

It's obviously going to grow, but it won't get to the level of Eglinton, or even Hurontario when it opens. It'll act a lot like iON.
 
WislaHD said:
To this point, I'd predict that Hamilton LRT would have a more similar impact to Hamilton as the Yonge Line has had to Toronto, rather than say, what the Finch West LRT will.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's over yet.

Panic politics is going on as we speak.

I'd say 33%:33%:33% odds of:
- Scaled back LRT ...truncated at Queston Traffic Circle, all urban realm downgraded, single LRV,
- An upgraded B-Line BRT ...quickly use the $1B of year 2015 Canadian currency = $1.3B today
- A resurrected LRT (with some changes) ...BIG TIME 2022 election politicking opportunity!!!!!!!

Re-quoting my prediction. Still nailed it, I think.
Correctly predicted: Newspaper headlings tooting cancellation of LRT...
Correctly predicted: Inflated Fake Ford number that includes operating costs...
Correctly predicted: Panic politics currently under way as we speak...

Sure, some are angry at both Libs and Cons. Sure, the Lib number inflated, but Ford added a lot more than the Libs scope creep did. But don't forget, the LRT budget was going to also pay for a lot of costs like sewer replacement / watermain replacement / Longwood bridge / York Blvd improvements (extra car lane + Cannon style cycle track extension to Dundurn Castle) as part of the "traffic management" solution / Full-length Braille Sidewalk along entire LRT (just like downtown & Concession). The LRT budget is not just the LRT alone itself. Realistically, less than half of the LRT budget is the actual LRT itself. A lot of dominoes were awaiting a lot of these.

mdrejhon said:
Short story prediction:

Newspaper Headlines are going to toot cancellation of LRT

Long story prediction:

Cons are going to inflate the value, include operating costs instead of just capital, and fluff the number to make it more overrun looking to blame the liberals and try to cancel the LRT. There is indeed cost inflation, and it was already known, but throwing in the kitchen sink numbers (far beyond just capital costs) to make it the biggest, godamndest cost inflation the Cons can muster to maximally amplify an excuse to cancel the LRT.

Then they just wave the cancellation axe -- but doff the responsibility to the City Hall to try to cover the cost overrun as a magnamious olive branch ($1B but ain't covering a penny more, city must get "fiscal house in order" and cover the alleged "Billions cost overruns"). Forcing the City to decide whether or not to cancel LRT. The City will be holding the bag.

Then panic politics begins in 2020 to try to get fed pitch-in. for a possibly scaled-back LRT (back to Queston Traffic Circle), a BRT (in current timeline), or saving the full LRT (but with a few years delay like a 2022 bid acceptance and a 2023 construction date..... Ugg). These paths are possible.

While the Kitchener-Waterloo LRT is operating relatively smoothly (more similar to Hamilton LRT), the Ottawa LRT teething pains situation probably didn't help the situation.

Tim Hortons Field Stadium debacle politics, but on the LRT instead.
Click to expand...
Fuming mad at Hamilton. Indeed. Fuming. However, pragmatically, something is going to happen -- the billion is still committed to some form of transit.

TL;DR: This saga ain't over.
 
Last edited:
mdrejhon said:
I don't think it's over yet.

Panic politics is going on as we speak.

I'd say 33%:33%:33% odds of:
- Scaled back LRT ...truncated at Queston Traffic Circle, all urban realm downgraded, single LRV,
- An upgraded B-Line BRT ...quickly use the $1B of year 2015 Canadian currency = $1.3B today
- A resurrected LRT (with some changes) ...BIG TIME 2022 election politicking opportunity!!!!!!!

Re-quoting my prediction. Still nailed it, I think.
Correctly predicted: Newspaper headlings tooting cancellation of LRT...
Correctly predicted: Inflated Fake Ford number that includes operating costs...
Correctly predicted: Panic politics currently under way as we speak...

Sure, some are angry at both Libs and Cons. Sure, the Lib number inflated, but Ford added a lot more than the Libs scope creep did. But don't forget, the LRT budget was going to also pay for a lot of costs like sewer replacement / watermain replacement / Longwood bridge / York Blvd improvements (extra car lane + Cannon style cycle track extension to Dundurn Castle) as part of the "traffic management" solution / Full-length Braille Sidewalk along entire LRT (just like downtown & Concession). The LRT budget is not just the LRT alone itself. Realistically, less than half of the LRT budget is the actual LRT itself. A lot of dominoes were awaiting a lot of these.


Fuming mad at Hamilton. Indeed. Fuming. However, pragmatically, something is going to happen -- the billion is still committed to some form of transit.

TL;DR: This saga ain't over.
Click to expand...

Trudeau and the feds could also match teh $1 billion or inject other funds into the project too. Thats a possibility.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top