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IO 2019 Market Update
 
rbt said:
Interesting article on the Hamilton LRT process.

Buried 2015 Metrolinx document cast doubt on Hamilton LRT – The Bay Observer

bayobserver.ca bayobserver.ca

I believe this is the 2010 version the suppressed report found faulty.
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Its interesting and not at all surprising to hear the Wynne government suppressed that information, given their general sliminess.

Yet, I'm not sure I can really be upset at them for it. Of note is this line:

In her 2018 report she noted that Metrolinx had recommended in late 2014 that given significant changes in the conditions supporting LRT; a study into alternative transit options for Hamilton (Bus Rapid Transit) should “be completed before an investment decision was made. However, Metrolinx did not do any further analysis before the Province committed to funding the LRT in May 2015.

You cant keep studying the same thing over and over. This is part of the problem in Toronto where we do study after study after study and nothing gets built. Yes, things will change over time but we can't restart the process every time they do.

At the same time, I think this again highlights a flaw with these business cases Metrolinx seems obsessed with. They occur so early in the process and use so many assumptions (many of which will change later in the process or otherwise cannot be counted on) that their findings are only slightly better than completely useless. Changes to any of these assumptions can completely change the result, as we have seen here. Plus theres the fact that they can easily be politically skewed (as we saw with the Ontario Line document).
 
Tuck said:
Its interesting and not at all surprising to hear the Wynne government suppressed that information, given their general sliminess.
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Yes, politics definitely skew things. But here's a moment.

Ignoring party politics for the moment, I have to observe that all colors (Red, Green, Orange, Blue) are all showing essentially unamious agreement about this part of the Metrolinx report:

"LRT demonstrates a greater ability to attract investment and redevelopment than the BRT alternative and consequently provides higher property value uplift."
(from that report).

Parties may disagree on details (e.g. DBFOM privatization versus #KeepTransitPublic) but they are all unamiously HamiltonLRT-aligned now. All parties of note are pro-HamiltonLRT for different reasons and goals.

Even now, witness the development boom to Hamilton ongoing -- many of who are banking on the LRT arrival, with another tsunami-surge waiting to happen after Spring 2020 go-ahead. There's more cranes than ever in Hamilton at the moment, you will drive past half a dozen cranes when you drive eastwards on King from Gage Park to 403. While several developers chose not to wait, many are waiting and banking on it. While there are pro-development and anti-development residents, the pro-development largely massively outweighs anti-development. Thusly, it would now be political suicide to go otherwise, regardless of what #NoLRT'ers otherwise claim.

Regardless of impropriety (Scarborough Subway Extension is way more politicized and way less economical) -- Hamilton's had enough defacto-#yesLRT referendums, so that horse is dead, and the Spring 2020 council drama will simply bluster and theatrics; there's just now too many things invested in Hamilton LRT happening now, and municipal voters sufficiently eager to see it happen.

Toronto1834 said:
Tweet by Samantha Craggs
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Hamilton snipped the A-Line LRT stub to gain a massively more useful B-Line LRT extension to Eastgate mall. This also impacted finances.

Political Analysis:
Whoever wins federally, could mean the difference between a trunctated LRT (e.g. temporarily shortened to Queston Traffic Circle) or the full B-Line from McMaster University through Eastgate Mall. Even the least favourable federal candidate isn't likely to lead to a Hamilton LRT cancellation, but I would prefer not to see a scaleback. Hamilton is historically NDP or Liberal territory, with Centre especially NDP. If a shrunken NDP wields swing-vote power of a minority government, that may actually have major influence to Spring 2020, since the Hamilton Centre NDP (Matthew Green) is currently a strong runner at the moment.

All these delays to construction start, means 2015 dollars now have to represent a 2021 construction date, and the currency inflation that entails. The opportunity for a federal pitch-in to fill in the currency inflation (of the delay) and the design change (B-Line LRT extension), will greatly help the Hamilton City Council come Spring 2020. Currently, City Council will balk at funding beyond $1B (at this juncture), but council would be all too happy to accept a Fed pitch-in.

In a minority government scenario (nearly 50% chance of minority government, according to 338Canada and other polling aggregators. LPC minority 22.7%, CPC minority 25.7% = almost 50% chance!)... Those around long enough know that minority governments tend to get more things done. So a Hamilton LRT inflation-topup may theoretically slip into the first federal budget 2021 arriving probably spring 2020, coincidentially timed with the Spring 2020 muncipal council vote.

This may not happen, but this is theoretically one political path for an inflation top-off to happen. Especially as increased federal funding for other transit projects (e.g. Ontario Line and other Ontario transit projects) will probably generate collateral funding for other projects (including Hamilton) as a counterbalance.
 
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canada.constructconnect.com

Pre-construction work gets underway for Hamilton LRT - constructconnect.com - Daily Commercial News

More than four years after the province of Ontario announced up to $1 billion to build a light-rail transit line in Hamilton, the first sign of construction is visible. The highly debated, 14-kilometre LRT line (to be on tracks separated from regular tra
canada.constructconnect.com canada.constructconnect.com

www.thespec.com

Hamilton City Centre sale pending: $700-million condo complex planned for mall site

Sale of the 3.4-acre site to IN8 Developments expected to close Dec. 12
www.thespec.com www.thespec.com
(Same developer who's been adding a few towers to the Kitchener skyline! They want to raze the former bankrupt Eaton Centre....a bit controversial....but whatever is built there is all bit guaranteed to have more jobs, more successful retail, and more residences combined)

Developers who has been waiting for the #HamOntLRT has started to realize that our construction (real prep / utilities / early works) is really starting to happen, and are starting to move to add more cranes to our skyline.

The 3 bidders are already shortlisted and will be chosen (1 of 3) this coming Spring 2020 and things will start happening really rapidly after that.

A new BIA (Midtown BIA on Main/King that stretches through Sherman and Gage) is under formation which may also play a role in helping businesses survive LRT construction. There was a consultation meeting just a few days ago that I went to.

Mind you, I am not too happy about the city handling of many other things on their file -- but #yesLRT is rapidly reaching done deal status -- it's time to really push those shovels into the ground! Looking forward official groundbreaking ribbon in 2020 (likely after early works/demolitions/utilities, before successful bidder begins building).
 
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^Big mistake on that Hamilton City Centre mall plan. There should really be an expansion and renovation of that waste retail "mall" known as Jackson Square. It's current state is just laughable, and razing the City Centre Mall for condos is going to do nothing to reverse that.
 
Amare said:
^Big mistake on that Hamilton City Centre mall plan. There should really be an expansion and renovation of that waste retail "mall" known as Jackson Square. It's current state is just laughable, and razing the City Centre Mall for condos is going to do nothing to reverse that.
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Only “Condos”? I feel that is — an assumption.

Maybe justified from a typical Hamiltonesque low expectations as it may be...

...but the city has been giving some notable targeted TLC attention to that specific area. Lister, King William, Gore Park Reno, facade Reno’s on the facades near Lister Block, etc. And I read “Mixed-use”. Even newbuild condos in that area has been surprisingly “respectful”, like Templar Flats (that’s not a facadomy, that’s a newbuild!). And even the facadomies have been more TLC’d in that area. Not all agree, but it’s far better than other parts of the city getting more cookie cutter condos.

And that decrepit facades near Gore Park? Lister Block looked like that twenty years ago, shuttered plywood! The city won the saving of most of those Gore Park facades and it will gain the Lister Block style treatment (ultra Reno of original facade to sparkling 19th century-as-new frontage), against a developer that wanted to fully demolish those. Sure, we have to frustratingly put up with a bit of an eyesore for 2 or 3 more years, but — but all of this bodes well for nearby facades.

I wonder if it includes a mall. It may be a Lower City Cadillac-Fairview. That would be a mall demolish-rebuild that is 10x more successful.

Hamilton City Centre is garden variety 1970s McDonalds architecture with almost no redeeming preservation qualities. (And we don’t have decades/centuries to wait until that low-grade 1980s midway aesthetic becomes truly antique/vogue -- it isn't one of the better examples of the era). I don’t mind a more spectacular mall (with condos above it). Even Jackson Square retail likely will be more valuable than Limeridge Mall in 2030, because of whatever flagship replacement retail is built in the former City Centre. A real new anchor attraction, in a manner of speaking. So if that happens, I wouldn't worry about a Jackson Square reno (especially if one can now run Winterlude style festivals on a renovated High Line style plaza on roof, or whatever) -- this is City Centre we're talking about. Now, it may just be boring cookie cutter condos with only token sterile storefronts (that's even an upgrade from those blank brick walls facing James), and a typical Hamilton underachivement, but $700M is a lot to spend to underachieve -- that budget pays for literally a minor resort (by Hamilton standards at least) being included in the development. So I want to see the plans first.

I am waiting until the plans before I Judge A Book By The Cover. I need to see the plans.
....Does it include upcoming Cadillac-Fairview-run mall on the lower levels?
....Does it include a NYC High Line enhancement of the rooftop plaza?
....Does it include good non-cookie-cutter storefronts facing James St N?
....Does it include a flagship sports/amusement/department store/etc facility?
....Does it include affordable housing badly needed?

Probably not all above, but some of above.

The sources I saw indicates mixed use. City Centre outdoor streetfronts is garbage to that section of James.

Whatever is built needs to have mandated street-facing main floor retail fully worthy non-clashingly facing Lister, King William and surroundings. That is an easy low bar just be superior street facing storefronts, but it needs to be better than the low bar. Maybe to balance gentrification, throw in affordable/rent units, a new flagship YMCA+YWCA gym/pool, an inclusivity-focussed centre, affordable food with free food option (like “541 Cafe” on our Barton! But more inclusive, i.e. LGBTQ+), or other creature comfort that balances the gentrification caused by high end storefronts. A healthy mix?

Now, yes, the plans may be crap. But that’s not what the news guarantees. $700M mixed-uses tends to cover some 'attractions' that adds jobs/malls/retail/theatres/entertainment/complexes/etc. Some massively more than others, some less than others.

I’m awaiting seeing the plans before my obligatory bitching/fawning.
 
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