Oh god no. This will not be good news.

Route chopped in half? Total cancellation? Replacement with BRT?
 
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^Feels like Deja Moo all over again.

In another thread, I drew attention to the fact that the cost estimates for the Finch LRT had magically shifted from $1B in the June ML Capital Report to $3.4B in the December Capital Report. It was explained to me as a change in reporting on the basis of the life-cycle cost (including operations maintenance and financing) as opposed to the base value of capital investment - thanks to be project being advanced as a P3.

I wonder if we are about to see the same shift in numbers.

If there is an update in numbers, we need to be very careful how these numbers are referenced and spun, so we are talking apples to apples.

As usual, there is also the question of why ML (who generate the numbers) didn't divulge this just four days earlier at their Board meeting. "Secrecy first and always" at ML.

- Paul
 
mjl08 said:
Oh god no. This will not be good news.

Route chopped in half? Total cancellation? Replacement with BRT?
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If the cancel it,(which I highly doubt) they won't get away with out heavy resistance from the citizens of Hamilton. It could be like the ION where half the route is LRT and the rest is BRT with LRT constructed in the future.
 
WislaHD said:
Something does not add up. How does an on-street LRT cost billions of dollars? How is the cost estimate off "by billions".
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they are probably going to pull some creative accounting - just like the Liberals pulled some creative accounting to get the $1 billion number.

The $1 billion number did not include procurement costs, maintenance, and land acquisition, and was stated in (IIRC) 2014 dollars, not current/escalated dollars.

My guess is that the PCs will award the contract as planned, but it will likely have a value closer to $3 billion as it includes 30 years of maintenance as well and is in escalated dollars.

For comparison, the Hurontario LRT was projected to cost $1.6 billion and the AFP contract awarded had a $4.6 billion value.
 
innsertnamehere said:
they are probably going to pull some creative accounting - just like the Liberals pulled some creative accounting to get the $1 billion number.

The $1 billion number did not include procurement costs, maintenance, and land acquisition, and was stated in (IIRC) 2014 dollars, not current/escalated dollars.

My guess is that the PCs will award the contract as planned, but it will likely have a value closer to $3 billion as it includes 30 years of maintenance as well and is in escalated dollars.

For comparison, the Hurontario LRT was projected to cost $1.6 billion and the AFP contract awarded had a $4.6 billion value.
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Could be an opportunity today for the Minister to make the case that the federal government should invest and make up the difference.
 
My view:

It ain't good news, but while it's definitely higher than $1B, they are trying to exaggerate the value -- throwing in the 30 year operating costs plus a lot of other frills not included in the original $1B -- as Cons excuse to try to blame the Liberals. The question is what politics theatrics occur to keep the LRT on track, even if it has to be scaled back to the Traffic Circle, and/or obtain Fed funding pitch-in.
 
mdrejhon said:
My view:

It ain't good news, but while it's definitely higher than $1B, they are trying to exaggerate the value -- throwing in the 30 year operating costs plus a lot of other frills not included in the original $1B -- as Cons excuse to try to blame the Liberals. The question is what politics theatrics occur to keep the LRT on track, even if it has to be scaled back to the Traffic Circle, and/or obtain Fed funding pitch-in.
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mdrejhon, what do you expect the government will announce in two hours?
 
mdrejhon said:
My view:

It ain't good news, but while it's definitely higher than $1B, they are trying to exaggerate the value -- throwing in the 30 year operating costs plus a lot of other frills not included in the original $1B -- as Cons excuse to try to blame the Liberals. The question is what politics theatrics occur to keep the LRT on track, even if it has to be scaled back to the Traffic Circle, and/or obtain Fed funding pitch-in.
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Hopefully someone in the media is smart enough to ask for the breakdown. the Ontario Line (and the other three projects) would also have a 30 year cost and I don't see Ford being concerned about that...
 
Coolstar said:
If the cancel it,(which I highly doubt) they won't get away with out heavy resistance from the citizens of Hamilton. It could be like the ION where half the route is LRT and the rest is BRT with LRT constructed in the future.
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Totally different scenarios, the ridership and travel patterns on the different iON corridors are vastly different. Shortcutting the Hamilton LRT would be more akin to removing half of the grade-separated portion of the Crosstown.
 
mjl08 said:
mdrejhon, what do you expect the government will announce in two hours?
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Short story prediction:

Newspaper Headlines are going to toot cancellation of LRT

Long story prediction:

Cons are going to inflate the value, include operating costs instead of just capital, and fluff the number to make it more overrun looking to blame the liberals and try to cancel the LRT. There is indeed cost inflation, and it was already known, but throwing in the kitchen sink numbers (far beyond just capital costs) to make it the biggest, godamndest cost inflation the Cons can muster to maximally amplify an excuse to cancel the LRT.

Then they just wave the cancellation axe -- but doff the responsibility to the City Hall to try to cover the cost overrun as a magnamious olive branch ($1B but ain't covering a penny more, city must get "fiscal house in order" and cover the alleged "Billions cost overruns"). Forcing the City to decide whether or not to cancel LRT. The City will be holding the bag.

Then panic politics begins in 2020 to try to get fed pitch-in. for a possibly scaled-back LRT (back to Queston Traffic Circle), a BRT (in current timeline), or saving the full LRT (but with a few years delay like a 2022 bid acceptance and a 2023 construction date..... Ugg). These paths are possible.

While the Kitchener-Waterloo LRT is operating relatively smoothly (more similar to Hamilton LRT), the Ottawa LRT teething pains situation probably didn't help the situation.

Tim Hortons Field Stadium debacle politics, but on the LRT instead.
 
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Indeed.. Wonder what this does for all the real estate investment was finally starting to see. My understanding was a lot of those condos were being heavily marketed (and sold) towards investors looking to rent to Mac students who would use their U-pass to take the LRT to school.
 
It annoys me that even with all of these cuts, cancellations, and efficiencies... the Ford government still projects a bigger deficit than the former Liberal government.

The Conservative idea that we need to make these cuts so we don't pass debt onto future generations is absolute BS. This $1 billion/$3 billion project is easily going to cost more in the future. That's still a debt being left for future generations. Conservatives are delusional.
 
The Hamilton LRT was cursed. It wasn't terribly popular, it didn't promise any time savings, and there were too many municipal elections fought over it. The city was never that committed to transit either, as HSR had the lowest ridership increase over the last ten years of any GTHA transit agency (Brampton had the highest, by far). The city was quick to eliminate a dedicated bus lane on King Street; it has not improved HSR service much.

But what it does represent is a nice "f--k you" from Ford to Hamilton, despite the questionable merits of the LRT itself.
 
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