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Forget stocks, Options are ridiculous.


I had a Google Option for a $320 call at $1690 dollars.

It slip to under $300 last week but I sold it today Over $2000...
 
I think the only way we would have another skyrocket will be if Toronto gets the olympics. For some odd reason RE seems to propel up if a city gets the olympics and crash right back down after Olympics. (Vancouver, Beijing)

That's a dangerous and incorrect assumption of a causal relationship because you're connecting two things that there's no evidence to support. Vancouver's RE rise had nothing to do with the Olympics (pretty much every city gained at the same time as Vancouver and some, like Calgary and Edmonton, at about the same rate - sans Olympics) and it's RE is now in the toilet and the Olympics haven't even happened yet.
 
how soon before toronto builders pull a Beasley?

Soon, imho:

http://www.vancouversun.com/Busines...ver+offers+discount+buyers/1398690/story.html

Vancouver condo price drop leads to lawsuits and big discounts

Developers slash prices for some buyers while suing others who try to back out of deals

By Derrick Penner, Vancouver SunMarch 17, 2009

VANCOUVER — The number of developers suing pre-sale condo buyers for attempting to back out of their contracts is mounting in the fallout from British Columbia’s slumping real estate market.

At least six developers have filed a combined 74 suits in B.C. Supreme Court in Vancouver against buyers, claiming breach of contract for failing to complete their purchases for condominium units which, in many cases, are no longer worth the prices established in original contracts.

Amacon is one of the developers suing some 16 pre-sale buyers attempting to back out of their contracts in its now-complete Morgan Heights project in south Surrey.

The lawsuits are a sign of the tensions that arise when real estate markets turn from upturn to downturn, Tsur Somerville, director of urban economics and real estate in the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said in an interview.

However, on Tuesday, Amacon announced it is slashing prices on a signature downtown Vancouver building where construction has not yet started.

Amacon said it is cutting prices in The Beasley project by 22 per cent, some $100,000 to $250,000 and more per unit, based on reductions in construction costs for both pre-sale buyers who signed higher-priced contracts last spring and bidders for 70 to 80 unsold units it will release to the public in early April.

Amacon senior vice-president Bob Cabral said the two cases involve completely different situations.

In the case of Morgan Heights, Cabral said only a small minority of buyers walked away from units that were complete and Amacon had already paid out all of its construction costs, which were incurred at the top of the market

With The Beasley, Cabral said, the company hasn’t started construction, and since last summer, the firm has watched as construction costs went down. Amacon plans to start construction on the 33-storey Beasley building at Smithe and Homer this summer, with completion scheduled for July 2012.

“The market has definitely gone through some transition since we started pre-selling,†Cabral said. “We viewed [reducing prices], rather than as an obligation, as an opportunity to pass on savings.â€

Ross King, the president of CONform Construction Ltd., Amacon’s form-work contractor for The Beasley, estimated that his company was able to contribute about one-third of the cost savings per unit, given that concrete work is the biggest cost and that his wage and material costs are substantially lower.

King said the construction sector has slowed so much that he has laid off some 250 workers, about half his workforce.

“The reason I wanted to do The Beasley was to keep the rest of my workforce busy,†King said. “That’s my job, right?â€

However, Amacon had already pre-sold two-thirds of The Beasley’s units at higher prices last spring, and Cabral said the price reduction does avoid potentially messy legal problems that could arise if the remaining units were sold for less money.

Buyers who try to walk away from their contracts run the risk of losing the deposits they put down; however, Somerville said developers also run the risk of losing all of their profits if they allow buyers to abandon their contracts.

Somerville said calculating how much risk the company would face from The Beasley’s buyers walking away from contracts if they didn’t reduce prices likely factored into Amacon’s decision.

Somerville said a developer’s choices are to take buyers to court to enforce the contracts they originally signed. However, even if the company wins those lawsuits, it still will be dealing with angry customers.

Developers, he added, also do not want to end up holding large numbers of unsold units.

Faced with the alternatives, Amacon has decided “the smart business decision†is to reduce prices, Somerville said.

Other developers in Metro Vancouver also have discounted their prices.

The Onni Group of Companies, which is suing 44 pre-sale buyers for walking away from units in a handful of projects, attracted headlines in January for its so-called liquidation sale of some 375 completed units at prices 25 per cent to 40 per cent off original contract prices.

Earlier this month, Morningstar Homes Ltd. said it was able to cut $100,000 off the construction costs of its new single-family homes, which it would pass directly to buyers.

New pricing at The Beasley will put studio apartments as low as $219,000, one-bedroom units as low as $305,000 and start two-bedroom suites as low as $435,000.

However, Cameron McNeil, president of MAC Marketing Solutions, which is handling the sales of Amacom’s remaining units in The Beasley, said he doesn’t believe the reductions will set any new benchmarks for downtown pricing because there are too few apartments left and a limited supply of units in development.


depenner@vancouversun.com


© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Developers, Amacon, who are building The Beasley condo project in Yaletown announce price reductions March, 17, 2009. This is Bob Cabral of Amacon speaking about the development with a model.
 
That's a dangerous and incorrect assumption of a causal relationship because you're connecting two things that there's no evidence to support. Vancouver's RE rise had nothing to do with the Olympics (pretty much every city gained at the same time as Vancouver and some, like Calgary and Edmonton, at about the same rate - sans Olympics) and it's RE is now in the toilet and the Olympics haven't even happened yet.

I guess example would be China?

http://www.propertywire.com/news/no...roperty-prices-in-vancouver-200805241030.html

Beijing's property prices jumped 40 percent in 2001 when the capital won the bid to hold the 29th Olympic Games. In the past six years, the compound growth rate has exceeded 50 percent. That's the root of Sun Ting's anger.

Whether the following article is skewd is another matter. Written 24 May 2008.
http://www.propertywire.com/news/no...roperty-prices-in-vancouver-200805241030.html

The Olympic factor is already affecting property prices in Vancouver, Canada, as the city gears up for an influx of visitors and investment.

In the first quarter of 2008 property prices rose 13.5% according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association. But they are expected to rocket in the run up to the 2010 winter Olympics.

Now BC is in trouble. January 10, 2009 with building the Olympic Village.
http://www.no2010.com/node/663

Regarding Calgary and Edmonton's RE growth. That would be due to Alberta's oil sands and not because of Olympics.

It's true though that not all cities that host olympics will go through an RE bubble phase, but it's not impossible for Toronto to go through one either if we ever get it.
 
Housing affordability has more to do than just housing costs. If interest rates rise the affordability of a home drops. We are seeing some of the lowest interest rates in history (?) right now.

In terms of fast movement of housing prices, when was the peak of the RE market in Toronto? Around the middle of 2008 would you say? I'd look up the stats but I'm at work right now but I will later. In less than a year we are nearing the bottom (in many people's opinion) of the the market drop. Seems like a pretty quick price movement to me. Think of people who were considering cashing in on the market prices by selling their homes. They have literally missed the boat right now by delaying the sale by a few months to a year.

I suppose it also depends on your outlook in this economy. I'm of the opinion that we will start to see a recovery in late 2009 early 2010. My opinion may change, though, depending on the 1'st quarter results from the banks. If they are still showing a profit (even if it less than the previous years) then I think the recovery will come sooner than later. If however one or more of the banks drifts into a loss than the market will suffer for longer. Going on this assumption if we start to see a recovery in the next 12 months or so and interest rates start to climb and people (having renewed confidence) start to look at the RE market again than we could see an uptick in housing costs in 2010. If however you think that this will be a long drawn out downturn than sure you'd be waiting out the market for another 20 - 30% drop in prices, but that might never come to pass. I'd rather get into a place of my own lock in some low mortgage rates and start building some equity. I'm willing to accept that potential drop of 20 odd percent in doing so because I know that I will be retaining the home for at least 5 - 10 years.

Plus if and when the market heats up again I'd be able to sell and take the gains.
 

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