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cdr108

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090306.whousing06/BNStory/National/home

While GTA sales are down a third, the industry takes some comfort as the rate of decline eases

CAROLINE ALPHONSO
From Friday's Globe and Mail
March 6, 2009 at 4:14 AM EST

TORONTO — A decline of a third in home sales isn't usually considered good news. But compared with the figures for the previous two months, February's drop of 32 per cent actually is a glimmer of hope for the Greater Toronto Area's battered real estate market.

December and January posted sales declines of 45 and 47 per cent, respectively, from a year earlier. Prices also were down.

Yesterday, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported that the rate of decline had slowed in February.

In 2008, 6,015 housing units changed hands at an average price of $382,048. In 2009, that dropped to 4,120 homes sold at an average price of $361,305.

"A considerable number of transactions continued to take place," president Maureen O'Neill said. "Motivated buyers and sellers, who were aware that market conditions changed over the past few months, were able to negotiate transactions acceptable to both parties."

A general slowdown in the economy and Mayor David Miller's controversial land-transfer tax kept would-be home buyers on the sidelines in December and January, said Jason Mercer, senior manager of market analysis at the real estate board.

But now that the bidding wars of recent years have ended, buyers are more likely to find what they're looking for at more affordable prices.

"The one thing that we have seen is an improvement in affordability in the resale market," Mr. Mercer said. "When we do see some economic recovery ... as we start to see the impact of a stimulus package both in Canada and the United States, what that points to is the housing market should turn around fairly quickly."

Until then, potential home buyers are taking their time before making an offer. Homes that sold in February, 2008, had been the market for an average of 30 days. Those that sold last month were listed on average for 45 days.

Sellers, too, were in no rush to put their homes on the market, as the number of listings last month dropped 11 per cent compared with February, 2008.

The real estate board argued that while the economy has affected sales, the housing market is on a solid footing. The spring market experiences more activity, and with low mortgage rates and strong immigration, the rate of sales declines should continue to slow, it said.

But with home prices falling, builders are also stepping back.

The value of building permits dropped by 12.9 per cent in the Toronto area to $953-million in January compared with about $1.1-billion a month earlier, according to a separate report yesterday from Statistics Canada.

The decline came from the residential sector, and offset increases in commercial and institutional permits, the agency noted.

By the numbers

Sales Average price
Dec. 07 4,646 $394,931
Dec. 08 2,577 $361,415
Jan. 08 5,075 $374,449
Jan. 09 2,670 $343,632
Feb. 08 6,015 $382,048
Feb. 09 4,120 $361,305
 
There is not any doubt that the market is slow compared to 2007 and 2008. But even with the current economic situation, I believe that 4.120 transactions, which means 137 transactions a day, is still a healthy market.
 
"the number of listings last month dropped 11 per cent compared with February, 2008."

This is positive news for the long-term owners in the city. That means many people feel their units are worth the price (or more) than they are currently fetching and see the value of holding those properties.

It can also point to less greed, less people flipping and less investors in this market. Which is a good thing for a stable market.
 
Same number of investors in the market. They're all sitting and waiting for their condos to actually be built. We may not be adding more, but the ones who bought in 2005, 06, 07 all have units being built now. When they have nobody to rent to and try to unload when the units are built it's going to be tough. Especially with developers still trying to sell their excess inventory. Those resales and developers will be competing for the same buyers.
 
Bentley, I wonder why you say that these investors will have "nobody to rent to"? There is no sign that I have seen that renters will somehow disappear from the market. If anything, with less supply of new condos, and less interest in purchasing condos by the current renters, the forecasts I am hearing are that the rental market will be more active, not less so, over the next year or two. Many of the renters who might have bought, won't be doing so.

Undoubtedly, some of the investor / purchasers will be under water at the time of their closings. Their new condos will be worth less than they paid for them. What would a reasonably intelligent investor do in such circumstances? Unless there are other outside circumstances (loss of their primary job, or some such), these people would be well advised to simply hold on to their properties until the market values rebound in the next cycle.
 
To panic or not to panic?

Same number of investors in the market. They're all sitting and waiting for their condos to actually be built. We may not be adding more, but the ones who bought in 2005, 06, 07 all have units being built now. When they have nobody to rent to and try to unload when the units are built it's going to be tough. Especially with developers still trying to sell their excess inventory. Those resales and developers will be competing for the same buyers.

Bentley: from my downtown experience there is a shortage of good rental units even with all the condos coming online. I've just leased 2 brand new 1-beds and could have leased more if I had the stock.
 
These numbers aren't so bad really... and yesterday they said Citigroup is in the black... dare I say the worst is over?

i would guess that you are about 2-4 years early on this prediction. re corrections don't happen in quarters, they take years.

and there is no shortage of rentals (good or otherwise) available.
 
These numbers aren't so bad really... and yesterday they said Citigroup is in the black... dare I say the worst is over?


Look beyond the headlines and review the balance sheets.
The US financials haven't done mark-to-market on their books.

Also, find me a "business" that gets to borrow from the Gov't at 0% effectively and charges from 5-25% NOT make money ??!!??
 
Bentley: from my downtown experience there is a shortage of good rental units even with all the condos coming online. I've just leased 2 brand new 1-beds and could have leased more if I had the stock.

The majority of landlords don't bother paying expensive real estate commissions to lease their units. There's no point. They use Craigslist or similar low cost or free services.

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=downtown&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&bedrooms=

Here are 1000 listings under 'downtown'.

No shortage there Yosi Kaplan, MBA.
 
The majority of landlords don't bother paying expensive real estate commissions to lease their units. There's no point. They use Craigslist or similar low cost or free services.

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=downtown&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&bedrooms=

Here are 1000 listings under 'downtown'.

No shortage there Yosi Kaplan, MBA.

Just cause there are listings does not mean the market is broken. If those 1000 listings started growing at 100 per month or so than we'd have a problem.
 
well in Toronto if things do not get any worse you get a market turn around very quickly, however this is only if developers keep any releasing few units to the public.

However that would take at least 2 years anyways.
 
Montage-Cityplace came up to occupancy last month. I was trying to help a friend to find a place to rent so I knew about this new building. I was really surprised about the crazy activity in the rental market, those units in Montage are going like crazy, the units are being rented in few days. A lot of people looking for rent.
 
anyone with skin in the game knows there are a tonne of rentals available. and many more coming online. probably more condo speculators now than the last bust.
 
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Someone please correct me if I'm wrong since I wasn't here during the 90's condo crash, but I thought the problem was builder speculation and not buyer speculation. I thought builders would sell 20% of a building, get financing, build it in the hopes of prices appreciating, then were forced to firesale the place when they found out the market couldn't take it.

This time it would be easy to say that the onus has only shifted to individual speculators and not on big builders, but surely it's easier for an individual to carry or rent a couple units they bought than a builder stuck with a ton of inventory.

Also, I would expect that many projects that are 50% sold (pretty much anything launched since the beginning of '08 isn't much more sold than this) will collapse and those buyers will be put back in the market, just in time for 2010/11 completions.

I do think there will be a correction but I'm just not as pessimistic as some. I just rented my place off Craigslist (as using an agent just seems silly) and it took less than a week. I do think that there are a lot of crap units out there, so quality will matter.
 

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