ThreeHundredEight.com has a projection with riding-by-riding breakdown based on recent polling. Currently they are projecting a majority using their methodology, which uses a few months of recent polls (57 seats for the Tories, 32 Liberals, 18 for NDP ... majority is 54). However when they ran their numbers with just the most recent Nanos poll it's a bare Liberal majority with 54 seats, 41 for the Tories, and 12 for the NDP - even though the poll had 42.1% for the Tories and 37.6% for the Liberals.
Their methodology is the best I've seen - and if that's how the popular vote comes in, their results normally stand-up ... a shift in the popular vote after the last polls (which we saw in the recent federal vote, with about a 3% Tory vote increase over recent polling) is tough to predict ...
The campaign is young ... my only point is that the outcome is not certain. And who knows how the whole NDP thing will play out ... I think losing Layton will hurt the party ... but who knows.
Perhaps some of these 905 LRT projects are safe.