Baseball has the highest percentage of teams that are unsuccessful (using playoff appearances as a proxy for success) every year. So if a team's ability to draw fans is based on making the playoffs there is a bit of a problem. I decided to compare the Jays to the Milluakee Brewers....I am not a huge baseball guy but, before I looked, it was my impression that they had been languishing out of the playoffs as much and as long (perhaps longer, I thought) than the Jays. After looking I see that they had 1 playoff (a wildcard spot) in the past ten years. Here are their results and their attendances compared to the Jays over the past ten years:
2010 - 3rd in their division...no playoffs...... 11th in attendance....15 spots up on Jays....about aboout 1.15million more fans.
2009 - 3rd in their division...no playoffs...... 9th in attendance....13 spots up on Jays.....about 1.2million more fans
2008 - 2nd in division....wildcard playoffs out in first round.......9th in attendance..9 spots up....about 600k more fans
2007 - 2nd in division......no playoffs.......1th in attendance......6 spots up on Jays.......about 500k more fans
2006 - 4th in division.....no playoffs.......17th in attendance......1 spot up on Jays.........about 33k more fans
2005 - 3rd in division.....no playoffs.......18th in attendance.......5 spots up on Jays.......about 200k more fans
2004 - 6th in division.....no playoffs.......20th in attendance.......4 spots up on Jays.......about 100k more fans
2003 - 6th in division.....no playoffs.......25th in attendance.......2 spots below the Jays...about 100k less fans
2002 - 6th in division.....no playoffs.......19th in attendance.......6 spots up on Jays.......about 330k more fans
2001 - 4th in division.....no playoffs.......13th in attendance.......10 spots up on Jays.......about 900k more fans
So, in the last 10 years the Jays have outdrawn the Brewers 1 and been on the other side of the ledger 9 times....during that 10 years nearly 500k more people attend Brewers games than Jays games on average each year! If you assume an average ticket price of $20.....that is $10 million in lost revenue! (plus whatever mulitiplier you want to apply for concession/parking/memorabilia sales!).
The onfield performance has been very similar (one outlier year where they made the post season for the first time in 26 years) and Milluakee is a much smaller town....both teams play in retractable roof stadiums (so weather is not a factor) for all of those 10 years and the stadiums are of roughly comparable size (Miller Park is slightly smaller than the Rogers Centre).
As I said, I am not a huge baseball guy. That said, it does amaze me how poor Jays attendance has become since the World Series years. As a sports guy I like to think that a city/region as large as ours and as diverse as ours should have room and be able to support many sports....the Jays, however, have had some very tough, lean, years. (NOTE....the trend is continuing so far this year the Brewers are outdrawing the Jays by 10k per game).
Well, we're getting into very specific examples here, which might be boring for others to read, but OK..
"Baseball has the highest percentage of teams that are unsuccessful (using playoff appearances as a proxy for success) every year. So if a team's ability to draw fans is based on making the playoffs there is a bit of a problem."
- Whether it's a problem for you or not, it's true.
As for the Brewers/Jays comparison:
- The Milwaukee Brewers opened a new stadium, Miller Park, in 2001. Honestly, this is probably the biggest reason for Milwaukee having a major attendance bump this decade (look at their numbers before this). With the opening of any new stadium, you tend to see at least a few years of attendance bump. (See: Minnesota Twins last year, Jays in the early 90s)
- After the excitement of a new ballpark wore off, the Brewers became competitive, nearly making the playoffs in 07 and making the playoffs in 08.
- As a comparison, there has really been no time in the past 18 years that the Blue Jays have been in a pennant race. Basically two decades without fans feeling like the team has a chance for playoffs late in the season. That makes a HUGE difference in attendance. Look at September attendance numbers for contending vs non contending teams.
Look, I'm not saying that that Toronto is an incredible baseball town like New York, Boston or Chicago - but can be a very good one, and this has been an incredibly uneventful 18 years. And pointing to poor attendance for a team that hasn't been in a playoff race in nearly twenty years - frankly doesn't show much. A lack of hope creates apathy. If the Jays make the playoffs in the next year or two, you'll see good numbers.
A better comparison would be Philadelphia. Similar size to Toronto. Good sports town.
2001/2002 they averaged about 20K a game - very near the bottom of the league. Fast forward to now and they're one of the elite teams in the game. Now, they also have had a bump from a new stadium, but more importantly they've been a playoff team the past few years.
Baltimore is another comparison. Stuck with the Jays in the AL East, they haven't had a shot at the playoffs in nearly the same amount of time the Jays have. And their attendance the past few years has been just about the same as Toronto's. Baltimore is a fantastic baseball town - there's just apathy because fans feel there's no chance at playoffs.
It's also worth noting that while the Blue Jays have had poor attendance recently, their TV numbers are excellent. Considering Rogers owns Sportsnet and The Fan, those numbers may be near as important as attendance:
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