Bent Flyvbjerg
Professor, Research Director, Dr. Techn., Dr. Scient., and Ph.D.
Notice: On April 1, 2009, Bent Flyvbjerg moved to University of Oxford. Flyvbjerg's Aalborg website is up to date until the time of his move. After this date, please see his site at Oxford:
www.sbs.oxford.edu/bentflyvbjerg
When Planners Lie with Numbers
The text below is an excerpt from the article "How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation," by Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Skamris Holm, and Søren Buhl, published in Journal of the American Planning Association,
vol. 71, no. 2, Spring 2005. For notes and references, please see the article.
In the present section we consider the situation where planners and other influential actors do not find it important to get forecasts right and where planners, therefore, do not help to clarify and mitigate risk but, instead, generate and exacerbate it. Here planners are part of the problem, not the solution. This situation may need some explication, because it possibly sounds to many like an unlikely state of affairs. After all, it may be agreed that planners ought to be interested in being accurate and unbiased in forecasting. It is even stated as an explicit requirement in the AICP (American Institute of Certified Planners) Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct that "A planner must strive to provide full, clear and accurate information on planning issues to citizens and governmental decision-makers" (American Planning Association 1991, A.3), and we certainly agree with the Code. The British RTPI has laid down similar obligations for its members (Royal Town Planning Institute 2001).
However, the literature is replete with things planners and planning "must" strive to do, but which they don't. Planning must be open and communicative, but often it is closed. Planning must be participatory and democratic, but often it is an instrument to dominate and control. Planning must be about rationality, but often it is about power (Flyvbjerg 1998, Watson 2003). This is the "dark side" of planning and planners identified by Flyvbjerg (1996) and Yiftachel (1998), which is remarkably underexplored by planning researchers and theorists.[...]