[steveintoronto]

Compare and contrast the approach for Spadina extension...where putting money into a trust is apparently on the menu

AoD

If I answer this, are you then going to ban me again for being off-topic? The Spadina extension was never close to being a sensible business case, and thus the disaster it became in terms of funding, losses and cutting corners. It's a classic case of what not to do.
http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2015/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-78233.pdf
http://news.nationalpost.com/toront...y-extension-a-classic-toronto-transit-screwup
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/03/31/spadina-extension-needs-more-federal-provincial-funds-city

 

[OneCity]

Compare and contrast the approach for Spadina extension...where putting money into a trust is apparently on the menu

AoD

Just up at the CBC: (I trust this is on-topic?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/relief-line-news-conference-1.4142821

"Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca (says) more planning work needs to be done before the province gives more to the project."

And that's the catch phrase.

If I'm translating the Political speak correctly I believe he said:

"We have clearly been backed into a corner with the DRL and will be saving any funding announcements closer to election time where it will have the most meaningful impact on voters. By that time the rest of the GTA will be content with the promises we have made to them and wont get upset with the magnitude of investment we will be making and have been avoiding in Toronto"

 

[steveintoronto]

If I'm translating the Political speak correctly I believe he said:

"We have clearly been backed into a corner with the DRL and will be saving any funding announcements closer to election time where it will have the most meaningful impact on voters. By that time the rest of the GTA will be content with the promises we have made to them and wont get upset with the magnitude of investment we will be making and have been avoiding in Toronto"

I don't think QP have been backed into a corner at all on this. In fact they are *avoiding* being backed into a corner.

I'm not overly happy with two of the links I provided in the last post, the Pest and Stun tend to be knee-jerk on these issues, but Selley of the Pest put it well with this:

Still, the problem remains: Not without cause, the TTC has a lousy reputation as a deliverer of on-time, on-budget projects. And as Mayor John Tory has often observed, that reputation is a significant obstacle for would-be city builders to overcome: Metro Vancouver’s referendum on a $7.5-billion suite of transportation projects failed in large part because TransLink, the regional authority, suffered from similar criticisms.

Asked how we might avoid trust-eroding sticker shocks like this in the future, Byford pointed to the multiple-contractor “design-bid-build” model the TTC adopted for the TYYSE, as opposed to the “design-build” option it rejected. “Design-build buys you that certainty because any cost overrun would typically be at the risk of the contractor,” he said. “The balance, though, is that you often pay extra to get that certainty.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/toront...y-extension-a-classic-toronto-transit-screwup

And that's exactly the same conundrum QP would find itself in again by blindly funding the City for the Relief Line. I'm as abject a critic as anyone on Il Duce, but he's got this one right. DIY! And so have the Feds, they have the same concern. Even though TTC planning is out of the picture, and City Planning is in, the liability is still off-loaded to the Province and Feds.

Here's the political lay of the land on this:
Province funds study, Feds kick in too, no matter who builds this or how it's funded, that work has to be done, even if it has faults or biases. On the basis of that study, options present themselves, one of which is 'do another study to hone in on what the previous one didn't do'. Or even before the study is finished, QP can start a parallel one. In the big picture of investment, $150M+ is a drop in the bucket, but even half finished, it could/would be enough for QP to 'go shopping'. And that just might happen before the next Ont election.

The more Tory becomes incessant tilting at windmills, the less the turbine produces...and the wires are disconnected at the other end.

That's what's happening now, and every time it does, Wynne et al look like they're 'standing up to Toronto'. Think how this is looking in the 905 and 519 region.

Tory, the one who claims loudest to being a 'businessman' is woefully inept at being one. I could propose a number of options for him to take, but alas, some would consider that outside the remit of this string.

 

[crs1026]

While I'm loath to defend Wynne, in this situation I can see Premiers of any number of political stripes asking a couple of pointed questions:

1) Tory hasn't offered any explanation of how the City will fund their share of RL costs, why should I play the lead card? Especially when the more generous the Province declares itself to be, the less money the City will attempt to raise? Especially when the City has just proven its willingness to select the highest cost version of a transit project, prudence be damned?
2) I just balanced the budget. What's in it for me to declare a willingness to add a multi-billion expense to future years' spending, right ahead of an election? Why not just wait and add that line item in the fiscal year where the money will be spent, after the election is over?

To be clear, what's needed is for all levels to declare what the revenue stream for transit to be.... and I'm in favour of it coming from taxes, not some convoluted P3 process. And I am in favour public sector project managers, provided the right oversight and transparency is maintained, and provided politicians remain at arms length. And yes we should be banking money today to save for execution of future committed projects that will be in the (relatively cheap) design process for a few years yet. But since we have none of that, the Minister's vagueness is harder to criticise.

- Paul

 

[OneCity]

While I'm loath to defend Wynne, in this situation I can see Premiers of any number of political stripes asking a couple of pointed questions:

1) Tory hasn't offered any explanation of how the City will fund their share, why should I play the lead card? Especially when the more generous the Province declares itself to be, the less money the City will attempt to raise? Especially when the City has just proven its willingness to select the highest cost version of a transit project, prudence be damned?
2) I just balanced the budget. What's in it for me to declare a willingness to add a multi-billion expense to future years' spending, right ahead of an election? Why not just wait and add that line item in the year that matters, after the election?

To be clear, what's needed is for all levels to declare what the revenue stream for transit to be.... and I'm in favour of it coming from taxes, not some convoluted P3 process. And I am in favour public sector project managers, provided the right oversight and transparency is maintained, and provided politicians remain at arms length. And yes we should be banking money today to save for future committed projects that will be in the (relatively cheap) design process for a few years yet. But since we have none of that, the Minister's vagueness is harder to criticise.

- Paul

Wynne will ask 2 questions and those are not the ones being asked.

1. Will funding the DRL help get the Party elected?

2. Lastly and clearly least important to the Liberals. Is the line required?


Now that Tory is pointing the gun directly at the Liberals and has joined forces with other "key" ridings and Politicians outside Toronto, the Party has been backed in a corner they have to continually respond to or face a cracks in the foundation of its base support in Toronto, as well they have been limited on pandering to surrounding areas. So forget about being elected, they may actually damage their own brand with this much attention being turned on them. The City's 20% will be taxed once the upper levels provide 80%. The SSE did what they need to do taxation wise without many tears aside from the details of the latest plan and it wont be that difficult. Tory is doing what needs to be done for the City

 

[amnesiajune]

Tory hasn't offered any explanation of how the City will fund their share of RL costs, why should I play the lead card? Especially when the more generous the Province declares itself to be, the less money the City will attempt to raise? Especially when the City has just proven its willingness to select the highest cost version of a transit project, prudence be damned

Why would any premier care about that last part when all three major party leaders support the SSE, and all three would almost certainly veto any attempt to remove the Gardiner East (yes, Queen's Park can do that)? Is there some other project that you're referring to that doesn't enjoy widespread support?

 

[crs1026]

Why would any premier care about that last part when all three major party leaders support the SSE

Have I missed a memo? Has Wynne agreed to up the provincial contribution to Line 2 extension now that the city has pegged the costs at $5B ? Supporting investment in Scarboro is one thing, agreeing to the escalation is quite another.

Tory's expectation is that the Province will fund 40% of whatever the City decides it needs. No party would want to make that kind of blank-cheque commitment.

It's quite reasonable that the Province would want to see all the numbers, and be assured that the design is not overbuilt or "enhanced", before making a commitment. It's unlikely that any party will take a position in direct opposition to the DRL, but that doesn't mean they will give Mr Tory everything he is hoping for. Especially when it's not election season quite yet.

- Paul

 

[OneCity]

Have I missed a memo? Has Wynne agreed to up the provincial contribution to Line 2 extension now that the city has pegged the costs at $5B ? Supporting investment in Scarboro is one thing, agreeing to the escalation is quite another.

Tory's expectation is that the Province will fund 40% of whatever the City decides it needs. No party would want to make that kind of blank-cheque commitment.

It's quite reasonable that the Province would want to see all the numbers, and be assured that the design is not overbuilt or "enhanced", before making a commitment. It's unlikely that any party will take a position in direct opposition to the DRL, but that doesn't mean they will give Mr Tory everything he is hoping for. Especially when it's not election season quite yet.

- Paul

They may they may not. But bottom line it will come down to how the feel it will affect support. This Party is notorious for making grossly ill advised decisions based on their need to pander to the voting public at election time. They certainly didn't need more information when pandering to Oakville and Mississauga. Tory is basically getting in front of their own game and putting Toronto as a priority this time around. They have never been so desperate and this is very smart move no matter what the Liberals choose to do. If nothing else it has brought greater awareness to the problems here in the City. Much better approach than timid Politics or the Politics of fighting internally.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Tory hasn't offered any explanation of how the City will fund their share of RL costs, why should I play the lead card? Especially when the more generous the Province declares itself to be, the less money the City will attempt to raise?

You believe these politicians are far too altuiric. Wynne knows Tory wants Toronto to pay for 20% of the line. Yes, its a true that Toronto City Council doesn't yet have a concrete plan to raise that $1.5 Billion or so. If Wynne actually wanted this project built, she would've told Mr Tory or Council to come up with a plan to raise said funds. She most definitely isn't in her office twiddling her fingers, patiently waiting for Council to come up with a funding plan for a line she'd otherwise 100% be happy to fund.

Coffey's right, the one and only thing this government cares about, with regards to deciding what transit to build, is how to affects their election chances. I mean, we all just witnessed them commit to build a $20 Billion rail line, that their own reports say has no business case, to help them win a handful of ridings. And remember, this $20 Billion cost is only a very preliminary estimate. Meanwhile, projects like DRL and YNSE, which are far more advanced in the planning stages, remain in their unfunded state. So spare us the excuse that these projects remain uncommitted to because we don't have a precise cost estimate.

You'd think that after a decade of watching this government pursue questionable transit investments, while denying funding to, cancelling or strategically delaying other projects, that people would understand that this government isn't making transit investments for the good of the people. They're doing it because it's electorally beneficial. We just have to hope that's whats electorally beneficial is also beneficial for the people of Ontario.

 

[aquateam]

Tory's expectation is that the Province will fund 40% of whatever the City decides it needs. No party would want to make that kind of blank-cheque commitment.

40% isn't that bad. It wasn't too long ago that the Province paid a blank cheque no-questions-asked 75% of all TTC capital expenditure. Especially considering the province has been going 100% on most transit projects, 40% is a comparative bargain for them.

And for the province to pay 40%, the city would have to spend half that. The city is incredibly parsimonious, it's already at its self-imposed debt ceiling, and the word of the day is budget freeze. I'm sure the city would exhaust its willingness to spend capital long before the province, which has much deeper pockets.

 

[crs1026]

You'd think that after a decade of watching this government pursue questionable transit investments, while denying funding to, cancelling or strategically delaying other projects, that people would understand that this government isn't making transit investments for the good of the people. They're doing it because it's electorally beneficial. We just have to hope that's whats electorally beneficial is also beneficial for the people of Ontario.

No argument on that. I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. Wynne offered the initial downpayment on preliminary design, without asking for matching. That's all she needed to spend to defuse any accusation that she was standing in the way of the project. Why spend more than that just at the moment?

I'm sure Ontario will come through with funding in the end. It's Tory who is pushing for more certainty right now.

One part of asking, will this get me elected, is also asking - how will this make me look in the federal/ provincial/ municipal power game? Tory with his badgering has made this a win-lose game. Wynne made those extravagant HSR promises because it made her the rainmaker. If she acquiesces to Tory on DRL funding, it makes him the alpha dog.

It's not just about sucking up to the voter, it's also proving who is the organ grinder, versus who is the monkey. The game has many dimensions. Getting stuck with the bill can cost votes where being the force behind the same project can win them. I think that is in play here.

- Paul

 

[OneCity]

No argument on that. I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. Wynne offered the initial downpayment on preliminary design, without asking for matching. That's all she needed to spend to defuse any accusation that she was standing in the way of the project. Why spend more than that just at the moment?

I'm sure Ontario will come through with funding in the end. It's Tory who is pushing for more certainty right now.

One part of asking, will this get me elected, is also asking - how will this make me look in the federal/ provincial/ municipal power game? Tory with his badgering has made this a win-lose game. Wynne made those extravagant HSR promises because it made her the rainmaker. If she acquiesces to Tory on DRL funding, it makes him the alpha dog.

It's not just about sucking up to the voter, it's also proving who is the organ grinder, versus who is the monkey. The game has many dimensions. Getting stuck with the bill can cost votes where being the force behind the same project can win them. I think that is in play here.

- Paul

Tory is the "Alpha dog" currently in the Political realm. He has 50% support in this City and is turning heads in other GTA regions and the Fed. For the Province to ignore Tory's requests with this level of support is Political suicide. They are very desperate and will likely pull out all stops, they are better to negotiate with Tory behind the scenes before this item runs them over in Toronto. The game has many facets but its this simple if the Liberals still care to play, they have pay.

 

[steveintoronto]

Now that Tory is pointing the gun directly at the Liberals and has joined forces with other "key" ridings and Politicians outside Toronto, the Party has been backed in a corner they have to continually respond to or face a cracks in the foundation of its base support in Toronto, as well they have been limited on pandering to surrounding areas.

By not saying "Yes" to Tory? You can't be serious. It's the complete opposite. Every time Tory gets what he wants, everyone else rightly wants same. I find it hard not to be facetious, the point is so obviuous.

So forget about being elected, they may actually damage their own brand with this much attention being turned on them.

By not saying "yes" to every demand from Tory? Phhhhh....

The City's 20% will be taxed once the upper levels provide 80%.

Reference please. The City can't even cover the cost of the SmartTrack stations. Toronto is broke. I find it so incredibly hypocritical that all the 'fiscal conservatives" have completely changed their stance on this.

The SSE did what they need to do taxation wise without many tears aside from the details of the latest plan and it wont be that difficult. Tory is doing what needs to be done for the City

No comment, the claim is so absurd. Reference please...

Why would any premier care about that last part when all three major party leaders support the SSE

Really? Reference please. If Brown has stated *any* commitment anywhere in terms of funding for transit, please link or reference.

Tory's expectation is that the Province will fund 40% of whatever the City decides it needs. No party would want to make that kind of blank-cheque commitment.

And some of the 'Scarborough cheerleaders' would be the first to scream Blue Murder.

It's unlikely that any party will take a position in direct opposition to the DRL,

Indeed, the Wynne Compact are saving their ammo to score for their team, and it's going to be an easy one.

This Party is notorious for making grossly ill advised decisions based on their need to pander to the voting public at election time.

lol...hypocrisy manifest...

Tory is basically getting in front of their own game and putting Toronto as a priority this time around.

Tell that to the Fiscal Conservatives....or the business community.

If Wynne actually wanted this project built, she would've told Mr Tory or Council to come up with a plan to raise said funds.

Tory's already been told to come up with the financing for the City's share of the SmartTrack stations...no can do...

She most definitely isn't in her office twiddling her fingers, patiently waiting for Council to come up with a funding plan for a line she'd otherwise 100% be happy to fund.

Not 100%, but 50%, the Feds matching that, or a share being taken by Private Investment if there's a Business Case for it. Tory needs new shoes, can't afford anything else.

I mean, we all just witnessed them commit to build a $20 Billion rail line

No they didn't. Quote where they or the report stated that. Quite the opposite, they danced around it conditionally with aplomb. There was absolutely no commitment to build it.

The city is incredibly parsimonious, it's already at its self-imposed debt ceiling, and the word of the day is budget freeze.

"Parsimonious"? "frugal to the point of stinginess.". Seems they've been on a bender spending other peoples' money. Except that came to a screeching stop. The tap went dry.

Those with the water want to spend it on their own projects, and get the accolades for it themselves.

 

[Tuck]

The nice thing for politicians about funding a study is it looks like you're doing something meaningful and making progress, without having to commit to actually spending the full amount to build the line.

 

[amnesiajune]

Really? Reference please. If Brown has stated *any* commitment anywhere in terms of funding for transit, please link or reference.

Patrick Brown is the most supportive of any of them: https://www.ontariopc.com/News/Deta...ick-Brown-on-the-Scarborough-subway-extension