Kelvin Browne: Understanding downtown's condo boom
Kelvin Browne, Right Angles, National Post • Apr. 1, 2011 | Last Updated: Apr. 1, 2011 1:45 PM ET
There has to be a reason for all the condo construction in Toronto, especially downtown, other than people keep moving to Toronto and need a place to live. To find out, I spoke to Barry Lyon, the principal of the eponymous firm that is the go-to planning company in the land development business in Canada. I first meet Barry 20 years ago when his firm specialized in downtown residential development; today, it’s a multi-disciplinary real estate consulting firm that offers urban planning, market research, and development strategy.
“People want an urban lifestyle,” Barry says. “They like to live near the amenities of a sophisticated life, such as entertainment and restaurants. Buying a condo downtown, or midtown, gives this.”
This is quite a change from 15 years ago when the sidewalks rolled up after 5 p.m. at King and Bay and everyone headed for the ’burbs.
Downtown living particularly appeals to thirtysomethings, says Barry. Firms that want the most talented in the high-tech and creative sectors realize these workers don’t want to commute to boring industrial parks, they want to live and work downtown. They want to walk to work. For many, living in a downtown condo means not having to own car, which is a big saving. Interesting that the suburbs also want to create their own downtowns to attract this desirable demographic. Mississauga, for instance, has a glamorous highrise core and the appearance of urbanity.
Also flocking downtown are new immigrants. While many dream of a house when they come to Canada (witness the continued growth of track homes subdivisions) an increasing cohort of urban professional immigrants are coming from a city and want to live in one here. Of course, one demographic segment continues to love central Toronto: empty nesters. Kids gone, time to have some fun in the city.
This desire to live and work centrally has resulted in most available downtown office space being rented. To everyone’s astonishment, more than 200 floors of office space have been absorbed in the past few years, and hence there are plans to build more. With the expansion of Union Station over the next decade, more people will work in an ever-denser downtown and commute home and, the opposite of the 1980s, just as many will likely live downtown and work elsewhere. This all fuels the condo and office market.
“Two measures of success of a downtown — from the commercial and residential perspective — are the absorption rate of office space and the appearance of grocery stores; in both categories, Toronto is doing very well,” says Barry. As noted, offices are rented, rent is high, and there’s more being built. But why are grocery stores a harbinger of success? “No one understands demographics better than grocery stores. When they build, they anticipate their market,” he says. If there’s a sign of more growth to come downtown it’s the appearance of grocery stores in shiny new towers or in the former Maple Leaf Gardens. There’s no better symbol of a solid, diverse community being established than a big grocery store being built. If condo towers were only for rich people, then it would be lots of boutique green grocers, take- out and expensive restaurants, but that’s not what you see happening in Toronto.
What’s the average cost of a condo today? In terms of the entire GTA, about $500 per square foot, but it’s higher in central Toronto. The rate of appreciation has slowed but there isn’t an excess of product, as developers refer to condo suites, on the market. Barry mentions that the vibrancy in the condo market has also greatly increased the availability of rental accommodation. Lots of investors, lots of suites to rent. And a good investment condos must be as they rent for about twice what similarly sized purpose built rental suites do — they’re typically newer, better-finished and in well-maintained buildings where landlords.
“The challenge with condo living is to keep families downtown,” notes Barry. “Lots of younger people don’t want to give up city live when they have families. Like astute owners of grocery stores, I assume that developers are doing the market research and see the potential for Toronto to have more family oriented condos. This will add a key component in the mix of downtown life — children.