In my written submission to TTC Commissioners and the EA Process, I stated at no time could TTC or York Region could come up with the numbers that the line would carry a peak time on opening day to the point I said they would be Lucky to see 1,500 riders. Based on various numbers, York Region would need 15% yearly increase to meet 8,000 riders by 2030 and still below the thresh hold for a subway.
Based on numbers from day 1, service would be every 10-15 minutes at peak time to be carry north of Steeles and would fall to 6 minutes by 2030 at best.
An BRT will handle the ridership north of Steeles, but I call for an LRT in place of the BRT.
Please pardon the length of the forthcoming rant....I understand that's what you stated, but it contradicts what
Metrolinx has found.
The City of Toronto and TTC in conjunction with York Region produced demand forecasts, reported in the Yonge Subway Extension Demand Forecasting Report in
January 2011. These estimate that in 2031 over 20,000 people will board the subway in the morning peak hour from the extended subway section and travel
southbound...While the specific modelling results from the various studiess conducted along the corridor vary, they all suggest substantial ridership growth in the corridor from
2006 to 2031, potentially by 70% to 90%.
Also from their analysis:
5. The Yonge North Subway Extension is supported by a wealth of policy and planning documents beyond The Big Move. Population and employment forecasts
suggest that York Region will be one of the fastest growing areas in the GTHA and neighbours Toronto, which already has significant existing population and
employment that are also projected to grow. Both York Region and Toronto have undertaken or are underway with a planning policy framework that
supports urban intensification along its major rapid transit centers and corridors. These policy and planning studies support the significant increase in
ridership projected for the Yonge corridor.
And:
"Demand levels forecast on the line are higher than the subway planning capacity estimates."
And so on and so on. I know these aren't opening day numbers but it ain't 2006 anymore and even if the line was approved today, it wouldn't open until after 2020 and intensification is happening already.
Here is a York Region modelling study from 2011 that, again, shows 2021 numbers that are well above BRT or even LRT capacity; about 17K boardings southbound at morning peak (starting around p.20, if you care). As the report notes, once you're over 10K, subway becomes the way to go.
I think it's about every 15 or 20 pages this thread cycles back on itself.
I hate saying the same things over and over again but it DRIVES ME CRAZY when people talk about the line only in terms of itself. For the 50th time,
Markham and
Vaughan have already revised their OPs to allow significant intensification along Yonge Street, specifically because the subway. Toronto (finally) is
doing the same.
Moreover, as I suspect you know, there is a growth node - designated through both Places to Grow and The Big Move - which is projected to house about 50,000 people and 30,000 jobs IN ADDITION to what's planned for Yonge and that is specifically tied to the subway. Not RER, not BRT or any other lesser form of transit but the subway. That's because the YRT/Viva system already converges there with GO and the planned transitway. Anything less than a subway is less density and more people living elsewhere, further from transit, maybe out in sprawlville.
Ergo, stopping the line at Steeles is an absolute waste of time and money. It doesn't address regional planning reality, it doesn't address the reality of how people move in and around the region, it doesn't do anything to meet Toronto's planning objectives either and it is quite literally counter to the explicit plans the province has already established for the network. Starting to dig to move the line 2 km, while stopping it like 3km short of where major E/W transit is converging is and around which major intensification is planned....well, it doesn't make sense to me, I'll say.
The only bigger waste of time and money I can think of is constantly reversing decisions on what do in Scarborough, culminating the decision to build a 3-stop subway. Or 4. 3 or 4. Or maybe an LRT. Indeed, as with Scarborough, the only reason to extend the subway from Finch to Steeles is to demonstrate in unequivocal terms that we still have the same cheap, short-sighted planning in place we've had for 30 or so years and have no intention of changing now. There are issues with how it will all come together but there is arguably no other project in the entire Big Move (save, perhaps, RER/electrification) that is as self-evident or "safe" a bet. Because Yonge Street will always be Yonge Street.
The legit concern (aside from lack of funding!) is the downstream capacity. RER and/or DRL will help but given that the intensification north of Steeles is not coming all at once, and given that the EA for the line is already done, I see no reason it can't go forward as soon as the $ is there, with the DRL following concurrently or right after. That's academic, for now.
I've said it all before, but now I've said it again. how long til I say it again? Time will tell.
(Oh, and I don't know what all the debate about the storage track is. The city approved the subway [as discussed above] subject to several conditions, including the DRL, renovations to Yonge/Bloor etc. One factor was a rail yard needs study and
they finished it and decided to put it north of RHC. If Toronto actually moved to take the subway up to Steeles and then store the trains there, and I was York Region, I'd do everything in my power to obstruct that. It doesn't help them at all, in terms of their intensification goals or improving the efficiency of their transit system. If you looked at a map without lines [or if Toronto went up to Highway 7] you would NEVER suggest stopping at Steeles in a million years. It only makes sense because you know that's where the [obsolete] border happens to be.
In the meantime, I know how much Toronto likes ignoring or undermining regional plans and wasting money but this time there are other powers (i.e. the province and York Region, and the lower-tier munis in YR too) involved and they won't let that happen.)