Well this "imaginary line" is separately acknowledged by both YR and Vaughan as being a potential priority, and is in fact being studied. So clearly it's not 'my' line. Nor are these prospective extensions all that "irrelevant" (particularly when factoring the demand for railed non-bus transit, YNSE's delay, politicking, past precedents, and that local+regional plans change all the time). Check your watch dude, it's not 2008 anymore. Yonge North may not be shovel-ready until sometime next decade, and this "imaginary" and "irrelevant" extension being studied north of RHC (and/or VMC) may eventually become less imaginary.
You're spinning hypotheticals up the wazoo.
Right now the Major Mac loop is a proposal in the TMP. The Yonge line is in the OP and has an approved EA.
so while all the qualifications you list are possibilities, right now - in 2016 - the Yonge line to 7 is FAR closer to reality. than a subway looping at Major Mac. Everyone on earth except you (and possibly Vaughan planning staff) accepts this. Writing another 1,000 words about how if if if if if if if if if if.....etc. doesn't change that. Just because you've declared an extended EA north of 7 "likely" does not render it so. It's POSSIBLE, and so are many other things. But likely? Unless you work for YR and have inside dope, I think not.
Move on.
Yet we both agree that many of the projects in TO's 15yr plan will change or won't be built - with YNSE possibly being one of them. Also that "priority" is contextually ambiguous depending on who's priority it is, or who's prioritizing the priority.
As much as you like saying PRIORITY and as much as priorities can and will change, let's again look at the situation in 2016:
Subway to Highway 7=priority
Subway to Major Mac=not a priority
Maybe that will all change before the end of the week and I'll have yolk on my face. But you'll pardon me if I advise you not to call Vegas to place a bet for me on that.
Naturally you'll continue to argue that "York Region is more transit-oriented than Toronto". But at the end of the day no subway north of Steeles is a distinct possibility, and I'd say that would mostly fall on their shoulders.
I should have macro so everytime you do a post I don't have to type "I never said that, or anything like it," but I never did. The closest I can come is saying that the YR munis have done more to plan their TOD centres than Scarborough.
For one I didn't write that to you, seeing that I didn't want a longwinded thing. But re: the simplistic points about sprawl and whatnot, and how this is an all-or-nothing game (with more sprawl being the endgame if YR doesn't get its promised 5km of subway) - much of that is half-truths and fear-mongering.
It's simple, so I'll reiterate:
You've repeatedly cited Vaughan opening more whitebelt as evidence they have no confidence in VMC.
I've repeatedly said that if you don't build the Yonge subway, you have to house more YR residents on those same whitebelt lands.
Why do you believe one and not the other?
Your arguing point about a subway being absolutely necessary for RHC/LG to work is kinda flawed logic. Development phasing is contingent on rapid transit being in place, and the only rapid transit option presented is a Line 1 extension... but that doesn't men a subway is necessary. It's only "necessary" insofar that it's the only RT option presented.
I literally give up because I've repeatedly tried, patiently and politely to explain why you're wrong. It has nothing to do with the EA or the ridership projections but rather with the unique way in which the population projections were reverse-engineered. If you honestly are baffled and want to ask I'll explain it again with no sarcasm or caps.
The phasing does NOT go out the window, contrary to your opinion, because (as I've repeatedly explained) it's not based on time. It's based on:
-each transit service coming online
-achieving certain modal splits
-the construction of other infrastructure (e.g. they need more wastewater capacity)
So, right now 5,000 units are pre-approved in the UGC.
If they announce RER tomorrow and in 5 years the modal split is (making up a number) 60% cars, 40% alt modes, they will NOT open more units for the next phase. I posted the actual benchmarks in a previous post but suffice it to say they are detailed and complex and - everyone together -
contingent on the subway. Without it, all those complex, interlocking details have to be modified.
I'm happy - sincerely and not condescendingly - to find the phasing benchmarks chart and post it for your review. But if you persist in repeating something you fail to grasp as fact, I'll just ignore it from here on in.
Because you're wrong.
And funny you're talking about strawmen and "spewing numbers and graphs w.out putting them in the proper context". Last week you compared 2001 job/pop density for TO's centres with 2031 York Region centres. Purposefully using 15yr old data for TO to assess non-existent (and now unfeasible) 15yr future data in York Region?
Where is that macro?
Let's just say I have no idea what you're talking about. I've never pulled up 2001 data for anything I can think of. Don't know if you're thinking of someone else or if you're hallucinating.
I just said it in the last post but - obviously NYCC and Scarb did not materialize quite as hoped. But IMHO, NYCC is fairly successful - great density and urban life, just not the hoped-for jobs and decent-but-not-ideal modal splits.
Other than that, SMH, as you say.
(I also have repeatedly pointed out it took 30 years to get that in NYCC, whereas you criticize VMC for failing after 2, but that's for another thread!)
And at the end of the day it's more or less inevitable that YR will open up whitebelt and try to sprawl over protected countryside. That's how they've been keeping their head above water.
Except, as already explained to you, it's finite. there's hardly any left. And they (at least in Markham, and in RH where they have ZERO whitebelt lands to open), are trying NOT to do that.
EDIT: To save us another round, I'm attaching
York Region ROPA4, which has much of the phasing info (and the detailed map, but not the detailed chart). the basics start on P.8 but you can just search for "phasing" and read throughout; more on P. 91, for example. Note that this is in the ROPA, so changing it requires an official plan amendment. Several, actually.
From Page 9:
Because of the importance of the success of both the phasing and infrastructure delivery, both Town Council and Regional Council approval will be required to change the minimum non-residential requirements, maximum residential caps or key infrastructure requirements in any of the phases. An amendment to the Secondary Plan for these any of these items would also only be considered with the provision of detailed monitoring data regarding land use mix, and transportation modes and modal splits that supports the integrity of the broader Regional Centre and its planned function as a transit dependent community.
From P. 10
The extension of Yonge Subway is absolutely vital to the long term vision of the Langstaff Gateway and UGC as a whole.
And it's not ONLY the subway. If Viva gets changed from a BRT to an LRT, that would shift the numbers (and so would shifting Viva down to a normal bus service, not that it's likely to happen). Each phase, and each set of modal split targets are based on specific criteria. If you go through it, you'll see how various pieces of infrastructure are tied to the phasing too. I'll still try to find the actual detailed Markham chart, if you like.
This
Metrolinx link has the summary graphic I've posted before and also mentions the unique "back-casting" planning approach I've tried to explain multiple times. (I said "reverse engineer' which sounds less cool than "back-casting.")
And, finally, it won't let me paste
P.96 of the Langstaff Secondary Plan but it says what I just said above: The Secondary plan does not establishing TIMING for projects and the region needs to consider impacts on phasing if projects - especially the subway - are delayed or altered.
You see - it was planned BACKWARDS, based on assumptions of specific infrastructure being in place. It's unique and pretty cool! It'd sincerely be awesome if you acknowledged all this and we could yell at each other about other things.