[TJ O'Pootertoot]

In which year for Yonge St??.
Today ridership on VIVA Blue is 15,351 daily.

Chalk up one more for the "not enough riders" camp!
We need to set a date for a big battle royale between them and the "new riders will overwhelm capacity" camp. It'll be a doozy.

First - in answer to your question, those numbers are for 2031, I believe.

Second - people keep forgetting this, it's not all new riders. A lot of people who now get on at Finch are coming from York Region and they'll be starting their trip farther north.

You're also missing that new transitways will be coming online along Hwy 7 and 407 and new people are moving in to Langstaff, and there will be massive redevlopment, and some GO riders will shift.
For that matter, you're failing to take into account the traffic (and enviro) benefits of getting hundreds of buses off of Yonge Street between 7 and Finch.

Now, I don't know if that addresses the rather complicated math you tried to lay out, but those are the basic answers. I'm not sure how you arrive at 6,000 people getting premium service.

The first, and so far only, proposed Yonge St redevelopment (Hy and Zel's) will bring in more than 3,000 new people by itself, and before the subway opens. That's one development.

 

[drum118]

Chalk up one more for the "not enough riders" camp!
We need to set a date for a big battle royale between them and the "new riders will overwhelm capacity" camp. It'll be a doozy.

First - in answer to your question, those numbers are for 2031, I believe.

Second - people keep forgetting this, it's not all new riders. A lot of people who now get on at Finch are coming from York Region and they'll be starting their trip farther north.

You're also missing that new transitways will be coming online along Hwy 7 and 407 and new people are moving in to Langstaff, and there will be massive redevlopment, and some GO riders will shift.
For that matter, you're failing to take into account the traffic (and enviro) benefits of getting hundreds of buses off of Yonge Street between 7 and Finch.

Now, I don't know if that addresses the rather complicated math you tried to lay out, but those are the basic answers. I'm not sure how you arrive at 6,000 people getting premium service.

The first, and so far only, proposed Yonge St redevelopment (Hy and Zel's) will bring in more than 3,000 new people by itself, and before the subway opens. That's one development.

I am the camp where numbers dictate the type of service that needs to be there now as well 25 years down the road. One has to walk before they can run.

One needs to go from bus to BRT to LRT to Subway/heavy rail. There is a huge operation cost for each type of service that has to be factor in

Other than Yonge and Bloor, TTC has gone from bus to subway with no streetcar in between. Both Yonge and Bloor had Streetcars before subway.

If you have $2.5B to service the whole of York over the next 10 years, where and how would you improve transit for the Region??

Hy and Zel's will use Steeles station. It's a given that the subway be built to Steeles first. 3,000 new residents represents 200-1,200 riders depending on model split. Not all will be using peak time service.

The VIVA Purple see less than 50% of ridership of Blue. The riders who transfer from Purple to Blue are included in the total number for Blue.

If 6,000 riders are getting subway service at peak time while 200,000 are getting slow boat buses, wouldn't you call that premium service?? Steeles and Finch carry twice the ridership of Blue and are they Getting a Subway??

Dufferin caries close to 50,000 and is it getting a subway??

It makes no different if I use Finch, Steeles or RHC for ridership numbers, they are the same. The only different is the numbers in between the stops as more riders get on and off, but still small.

TTC as well myself have class Royal Orchard a risk station as it could end up have worst numbers than Chester. Clark is border line as well as Langstaff.

If York wants this subway badly, then they pickup the full operation cost as well the construction cost since they are on record will to do it.

I would take that construction cost money and apply it to other parts of the GTAH to improve the quality of transit there by adding more service, building BRT or LRT. It will service more riders than the Yonge extension north of Steeles.

Going back to numbers camp, you better add Metrolinx to that camp as they only see 8,800 peak riders at RHC come 2031. Since I don't have access to a modeling system, my number are not that far off Metrolinx numbers. At the same time, Metrolinx sees more riders going north of RHC with the BRT being converted to LRT by 2031.

The needs of a whole out weight the needs of a few.

You need to look at apples to apples when comparing numbers.

Yes riders are coming from various part of York to Finch and it will be the same going to Steeles. The only different will be the saving in travel time for both TTC and YRT using Steeles in place of Finch.

If you are moving 6,000 riders at peak time, what is the headway of a subway train come 2031? This is a single point.

Now what will the headway be come 2018 using my numbers??

If and it's a Big IF, if it cost the same fare to use GO to the city core as a subway from RHC what would happen to ridership numbers for the subway considering the GO train will get there a lot faster than it does today????

 

[taal]

I've made the arguments above several times to many people and always I've gotten answers along the lines of:

It's called "planning".

In other words they expect that many more riders will exist because of:
1) the 30,000+ new people to live right in the area.
2) the added people using Viva by that time.
3) the extra incentive for new commuters to drive to the lots at RCH now.

 

[Voltz]

Chalk up one more for the "not enough riders" camp!
We need to set a date for a big battle royale between them and the "new riders will overwhelm capacity" camp. It'll be a doozy.

It is entirely possible for the Yonge extension to overwhelm the current system while not having enough riders to justify the line based on ridership alone, since the current system is full.

 

[PSC]

This stuff is honestly so easy to find...the TTC even has a Yonge extension webpage.

Richmond Hill: 113,000
Langstaff: 13,700
Royal Orchard: 6,800
Clark: 8,100
Steeles: 23,900
Cummer: 9,200

The peak hour volume is 14,000 per hour crossing Steeles. The total daily ridership is 175,000, which compares to the 43,000 people who currently ride the Sheppard subway.

I am the camp where numbers dictate the type of service that needs to be there now as well 25 years down the road. One has to walk before they can run.

Ok, then, let's look at the numbers (above).

Hy and Zel's will use Steeles station. It's a given that the subway be built to Steeles first. 3,000 new residents represents 200-1,200 riders depending on model split. Not all will be using peak time service.

The VIVA Purple see less than 50% of ridership of Blue. The riders who transfer from Purple to Blue are included in the total number for Blue.

If 6,000 riders are getting subway service at peak time while 200,000 are getting slow boat buses, wouldn't you call that premium service?? Steeles and Finch carry twice the ridership of Blue and are they Getting a Subway??

Where's this 6,000 coming from?

Also, there's no transfer between Blue and Purple. Both run south from RHC to Finch.

If York wants this subway badly, then they pickup the full operation cost as well the construction cost since they are on record will to do it.

That's still up for negotiation, but you can be sure TTC is looking out for itself.

If and it's a Big IF, if it cost the same fare to use GO to the city core as a subway from RHC what would happen to ridership numbers for the subway considering the GO train will get there a lot faster than it does today????

GO train won't be any faster than TTC due to the fact that the GO alignment is slower than molasses through the valley. (Max speed is 35 mph according to the Bala Sub operations book) Also, it requires significant upgrades to provide the necessary service - minimum $500m, more likely approaching $1B on its own. And the TRCA is gonna have a fit when they see the amount of grading within the Don Valley floodplain...

 

[Disparishun]

It is entirely possible for the Yonge extension to overwhelm the current system while not having enough riders to justify the line based on ridership alone, since the current system is full.

Then the line will be overwhelmed without the Yonge extension, since the current system is full. (Unless, durn it, we could somehow just keep those freeloading 905ers north of Steeles! Ground VIVA? A wall across the magical boundary? Maybe just tell them their money's no good here?)

 

[Disparishun]

If you have $2.5B to service the whole of York over the next 10 years, where and how would you improve transit for the Region??

It sounds like you are saying that someone has been allocated $2.5B to service the whole of York Region over the next 10 years, and that that someone then decided that the best way to allocate it was to the Yonge extension. Yes?

If 6,000 riders are getting subway service at peak time while 200,000 are getting slow boat buses, wouldn't you call that premium service?? Steeles and Finch carry twice the ridership of Blue and are they Getting a Subway??

Dufferin caries close to 50,000 and is it getting a subway??

I'm lost here, too. What do you mean? What numbers are you using? What do these have to do with VIVA ridership? And how does VIVA ridership accurately predict loading on the Yonge extension?

If York wants this subway badly, then they pickup the full operation cost as well the construction cost since they are on record will to do it.

I see. Presumably, then, you are saying that there is a final arrangement as to operation cost and as to construction cost, and that you disagree with that arrangement. So, by all means, what is that arrangement? Who pays exactly what proportion of what?

And with regard to your disagreement, it sounds like your premise is that any benefits in reducing the friction involved in shuttling workers and shoppers in and out of the City of Toronto accrue entirely to those workers and shoppers -- who should therefore be required to pay for it -- and not at all to the employers and retailers at which the working and shopping takes place. Have you considered that that might be wrong?

If and it's a Big IF, if it cost the same fare to use GO to the city core as a subway from RHC what would happen to ridership numbers for the subway considering the GO train will get there a lot faster than it does today????

First, get where?

Second, ironically, what would happen is that the likelihood that the Yonge Extension overwhelm the upgraded Yonge line would drop a fair bit. Many of the riders for whom that GO train makes the most sense -- commuters packing Steeles, Finch, and Sheppard buses to get to the subway and head south, and who would actually save time with a one-shot ride from Finch and Leslie or from Leslie station on the Sheppard line -- would be diverted.

Yes riders are coming from various part of York to Finch and it will be the same going to Steeles. The only different will be the saving in travel time for both TTC and YRT using Steeles in place of Finch.

Do you mean that the main difference resulting from the adding of a subway will be a reduction of travel time for existing users, with neither increased usage, nor lessened vehicle traffic, nor intensification and development? If so, then this is surely incorrect.

 

[299 bloor call control.]

Also, there's no transfer between Blue and Purple. Both run south from RHC to Finch.

Actually there is. However, Pink is a rush hour service that overlaps purple service on the east end that runs directly to Finch Stn.

 

[drum118]

Actually there is. However, Pink is a rush hour service that overlaps purple service on the east end that runs directly to Finch Stn.

Pink see 705 riders a day for the WHOLE route. On average, 15 riders on the Pink leaving Finch at pm peak.

Purple runs east-west, not south on Yonge and interchange at RHC. Most riders getting off Purple are going north from the West.

Route 99 carries 3,007 riders daily for the Whole Route.

 

[taal]

No matter what happens ... unless we see major major exteremly dense developments (and even then I'm not sure) I really doubt you'll see anything close to 10% increase even on Viva blue till 2031 straight!

Yes the growth was fast out of the gate but it will peek and the growth % will take a nose dive (still high!) but toward the later stages of the game 2/3/4% tops ... later stages being 2018+

 

[Disparishun]

No matter what happens ... unless we see major major exteremly dense developments (and even then I'm not sure) I really doubt you'll see anything close to 10% increase even on Viva blue till 2031 straight!

Yes the growth was fast out of the gate but it will peek and the growth % will take a nose dive (still high!) but toward the later stages of the game 2/3/4% tops ... later stages being 2018+

We will certainly see major, extremely dense developments.

To unlock demand, however, we will need to see a non-dumb fare system. Expecting people will pony up three bucks to ride between one and two kilometres does not meet that requirement. The densest part of the Blue route is a part in which almost noone is interested in taking it, because it's economically silly. Those are, ironically, the parts also slated for the most immediate densification, and which have the most potential for it -- the majority of the land between Steeles and Clark is basically sitting waiting for developers.

(Even under those circumstances, however, the Viva ridership would remain a poor index for likely Yonge extension ridership.)

Pink see 705 riders a day for the WHOLE route. On average, 15 riders on the Pink leaving Finch at pm peak.

Purple runs east-west, not south on Yonge and interchange at RHC. Most riders getting off Purple are going north from the West.

Route 99 carries 3,007 riders daily for the Whole Route.

Again, the relevance of all this is somewhat mysterious. However, for kicks, the average 2007 daily boardings for the YRT routes which run between Finch subway and points north of 7 (except for the GO 3 bus, which I did not bother trying to scare up):

Brampton-YRT 77: 2862
GO 3: ?
YRT 002 Milliken: 2317
YRT 005 Clark: 1794
YRT 023 Thornhill Woods: 759
YRT 088/88E Bathurst: 2431
YRT 091/91A Bayview South: 3994
YRT 099 Yonge South: 3818
YRT 300 Business Express: 306
YRT 301 Markham Express: 423
YRT 302 Unionville Express: 197
YRT 303 Cornell Express: 119
YRT 340 Bayview Express: 94
YRT VIVA Blue: 16678
YRT VIVA Pink: 2451
Total: 38,243

As indicated above, there are very few good reasons to think that the above numbers represent demand under a non-dumb fare scheme with a bus-to-subway transfer, never mind a one-shot subway ride. But there they are. (Obviously, it does not take into account transit that connects at Yonge-7 but not at Finch -- the new GO airport bus, the VIVA and GO Hwy 7 bus routes, and the RH GO train.)

 

[taal]

We will certainly see major, extremely dense developments.

To unlock demand, however, we will need to see a non-dumb fare system. Expecting people will pony up three bucks to ride between one and three kilometres does not meet that requirement. The densest part of the Blue route is a part in which almost noone is interested in taking it, because it's economically silly. Those are, ironically, the parts also slated for the most immediate densification.

(Even under those circumstances, however, the Viva ridership would remain a poor index for likely Yonge extension ridership.)

Which is the densepart exactly? The part just North of steeles? There's not much there last time I checked unless you're reffering to future development (not like there's much south of steeles either).

I agree with you last point though. Viva Blue + Purple + Pink + every other YRT bus that currently operates to Finch will not provide an accurate measure. Quite a few people that previously drove to finch can be diverted further north. The big one is the GO transit operation to Finch station ... the rest of the transit agencies are a joke at Finch so they're not worth mentioning.

Still though, if you combine the ridership on the YRT terminal at Finch + everyone who get's off Viva between Hi-way 7 and Steeles you wouldn't reach a big number even how many years down the line.

The point is your depending on a many many new riders to show up here to justify the subway in the first place.

 

[taal]

We will certainly see major, extremely dense developments.

To unlock demand, however, we will need to see a non-dumb fare system. Expecting people will pony up three bucks to ride between one and two kilometres does not meet that requirement. The densest part of the Blue route is a part in which almost noone is interested in taking it, because it's economically silly. Those are, ironically, the parts also slated for the most immediate densification, and which have the most potential for it -- the majority of the land between Steeles and Clark is basically sitting waiting for developers.

(Even under those circumstances, however, the Viva ridership would remain a poor index for likely Yonge extension ridership.)



Again, the relevance of all this is somewhat mysterious. However, for kicks, the average 2007 daily boardings for the YRT routes which run between Finch subway and points north of 7 (except for the GO 3 bus, which I did not bother trying to scare up):

Brampton-YRT 77: 2862
GO 3: ?
YRT 002 Milliken: 2317
YRT 005 Clark: 1794
YRT 023 Thornhill Woods: 759
YRT 088/88E Bathurst: 2431
YRT 091/91A Bayview South: 3994
YRT 099 Yonge South: 3818
YRT 300 Business Express: 306
YRT 301 Markham Express: 423
YRT 302 Unionville Express: 197
YRT 303 Cornell Express: 119
YRT 340 Bayview Express: 94
YRT VIVA Blue: 16678
YRT VIVA Pink: 2451
Total: 38,243

Perfect! Add GO and whatever else you'd like, if this is what were going by it going be 3031 (yes 3...) and a subway wouldn't be needed.

Like my post above indicates we need a lot of new riders not just the expected 2-3-4% growth. In other words once the subway station opens at RCH we're tapping into a whole new base ... or at least we need to be to justify it.

 

[drum118]

It sounds like you are saying that someone has been allocated $2.5B to service the whole of York Region over the next 10 years, and that that someone then decided that the best way to allocate it was to the Yonge extension. Yes?

So, on opening day come 2018, you are going to spend $2.5B to move 1,466-1,759 for 1 hour of service at peak time while supplying no service to the existing system, riders and call this good investment??

What about Off peak service that will be less?? I guess 3 train a hour is good service???

From a business prospected, poor investment since the taxpayers are going to be on the hook for this money.

I'm lost here, too. What do you mean? What numbers are you using? What do these have to do with VIVA ridership? And how does VIVA ridership accurately predict loading on the Yonge extension?

6,663 is peak ridership come 2031 for the extension north of Steeles to RHC using 10% yearly growth.

Ridership on the Whole Existing Blue line various between 36,232 t0 137,457 using 3%-10% yearly growth. Current ridership is only increasing 1.04% yearly.

The other numbers are exiting ridership on TTC routes that are 2-3 times higher than Blue and you see no push to convert those bus lines to subway? No.

I see. Presumably, then, you are saying that there is a final arrangement as to operation cost and as to construction cost, and that you disagree with that arrangement. So, by all means, what is that arrangement? Who pays exactly what proportion of what?

Current cost to move 43,000 riders on Sheppard is $10m and it will be higher on York section. Do the math for the whole year and see what the real cost is for the riders is on the extension will be. More than $3/trip. Are you going to ask all York riders to pay $4/trip so a small number of riders can use a subway?

And with regard to your disagreement, it sounds like your premise is that any benefits in reducing the friction involved in shuttling workers and shoppers in and out of the City of Toronto accrue entirely to those workers and shoppers -- who should therefore be required to pay for it -- and not at all to the employers and retailers at which the working and shopping takes place. Have you considered that that might be wrong?

There is a two way street as to cost and benefit for both areas, but do they off set the cost of this extension?? Not at this time nor 20 years from now.

First, get where?

To Toronto centre core.

Second, ironically, what would happen is that the likelihood that the Yonge Extension overwhelm the upgraded Yonge line would drop a fair bit. Many of the riders for whom that GO train makes the most sense -- commuters packing Steeles, Finch, and Sheppard buses to get to the subway and head south, and who would actually save time with a one-shot ride from Finch and Leslie or from Leslie station on the Sheppard line -- would be diverted.

With the development taking place and plan along Yonge in Toronto, ridership will exceed capacity in 20 years not factoring in 905 and lines feeding into it. One only has to look at North York Centre station to see over 27,000 using a station that was never plan for in the first place with more riders coming as more development takes place around it.

There is a huge cost saving for everyone currently using Yonge from Steeles to Finch by having the subway move to Steeles. TTC and YRT can remove some buses off the routes servicing Finch and reduce operation cost some what. Riders will save time since they will have less distance to walk to get from YRT terminal to TTC. At the same time, their travel time is cut in haft by going to Steeles than Finch.

If the Don Mills DRL gets built to Sheppard, it will remove 35% of existing ridership allowing room for future growth within 416 and some 905.

The New Rocket Train is not going to save as much room as claim by TTC. They have now lower peak ridership of 1,200 to 1,100. The section between Bloor and Union will still be a bottle neck even after the DRL is built.

Do you mean that the main difference resulting from the adding of a subway will be a reduction of travel time for existing users, with neither increased usage, nor lessened vehicle traffic, nor intensification and development? If so, then this is surely incorrect.

Improving riders travel time is a must, but at what cost. It has been said to improved travel time within 416 will cost over $100B. I know from my numbers it more than the $50B I see today to do this improvement.

You are not reducing traffic by building subways, you are increasing traffic gridlock as well greenhouse gas. Until you start taking lanes of traffic away and giving them to transit, more vehicles will use that extra lane with no transit traffic on them. Why do hear the call to get rid of streetcars?

An LRT from RHC on the surface with more stops than a subway, will attract more riders as well getting those riders to leave their car at home. Travel time will be haft of the current travel time. $300m for LRT vs. $1.5B for the subway is a better investment.

To be clear, I do see a subway going into York and stopping Eglin Mills over the next 50 years, but not today.

As for the GO line, it's going to be upgraded with more tracks to allow faster travel speed. Depending on the final routing down the valley either by CN or CP line, speed can be increase. CP line will offer faster service.

Just because someone said this is what the ridership on a website will be come 2031, it's a guessing game. TTC And YRT have no real numbers at all at this time. TTC came on late for this project and has not undertaken a really look at numbers for all the stations since they don;t have the time now.

It takes years to get a development off the ground and you need money to build it as well carry the cost until it's sold out. At the same time, you need buyer to buy these units and with the current market, it will be a few years before the developments see the light of day.

At the same time, not every hub will develop as plan and you only have to look at the BD line to see this after 40 years.

You can do all the great planning, but at the end of the day, it's the developer who will say what it's going to built and how it will look like.

The only way to get around this problem, the Region needs to own the land and cover the cost of building the plan. I don't see this happening.

 

[Disparishun]

Expecting people will pony up three bucks to ride between one and three kilometres does not meet that requirement. The densest part of the Blue route is a part in which almost noone is interested in taking it, because it's economically silly.

Which is the densepart exactly? The part just North of steeles? There's not much there last time I checked unless you're reffering to future development (not like there's much south of steeles either).

As I said, the densest part of the Blue route is the part between 1 and 3 km immediately north of Steeles. If you read the EA report, you will see that, at present, the Clark area is the densest of the proposed subway station perimeters. (In the "nearer-term" future scenario (2031), the Steeles and RHC areas are to be the densest of the proposed subway station perimeters.)

You are, of course, correct that future development will increase this density significantly. As I said, the majority of the land between Steeles and Clark is basically sitting waiting for developers.

I agree with you last point though. Viva Blue + Purple + Pink + every other YRT bus that currently operates to Finch will not provide an accurate measure. Quite a few people that previously drove to finch can be diverted further north.

Perfect! Add GO and whatever else you'd like, if this is what were going by it going be 3031 (yes 3...) and a subway wouldn't be needed.

I think you need to make your mind up on this one -- you're contradicting yourself.

The point is your depending on a many many new riders to show up here to justify the subway in the first place.

Let's see. Gridlocked roads. High-density rezoning. Announced megaprojects, with others on the way. Yes, I think there will be new riders. Don't you?

For clarity, what is the number of new riders that you are talking about? Is this a matter of you disbelieving the projected numbers, or are you arguing that the projected numbers don't justify a subway extension? If the latter, then what numbers would justify such an extension? Between all the sneering it is hard to tell what you are trying to say here.