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condocrash2008 said:
Your posts should be tagged with the heading "Note: Agent Bias". Just as mine should be disclosed with the heading "Note: Value Buyer".

You conveniently omitted the pertinent quote in my post so I will repost it:



While I tend to agree that one month does not establish a trend the fact that this negative price change has not occurred for 7+ years is very demonstrative of a change in the market. Furthermore, the fact that the average price fell over $20,000 and over 5% is very very significant and cannot be explained away by a minor tax. If anything the tax should increase prices as is the case will other goods and services in Canada- food, fuel, clothing etc- all significantly higher priced in Canada due to significantly higher taxes.
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Sorry condocrash2008, I didn't mean to leave it out, I just clicked QUOTE, without modifying what was in between.

And I was referring to the new Toronto Land Transfer Tax, which is a significant tax when added on top of the Ontario Land Transfer Tax.

And yes, this note is written with an agent bias. However, I don't see as how an agent would be biased--we make money on the transaction, ie: buying AND selling. If it were a mass sell off, I'd still have a commission in my pocket.

One thing I will say us agents are, and that's defensive (but that's because we have insider knowledge)
 
condocrash2008 said:
Insider knowledge? Are you kidding me?

Of course I knew you were referring to the new Toronto LTT. And again I believe that the tax only serves to raise prices because the cost gets passed on to the buyer just as every other new tax in Canada has historically. Did you see the prices of Tide drop 7% when they introduced the GST?
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Insider knowledge = watching the markets every day. Of course, you don't have to be an agent for that.

Umm... didn't we have a recession after the introduction of the GST in 1991?
 
Land Transfer Tax.

condocrash2008 said:
Of course I knew you were referring to the new Toronto LTT. And again I believe that the tax only serves to raise prices because the cost gets passed on to the buyer just as every other new tax in Canada has historically. Did you see the prices of Tide drop 7% when they introduced the GST?
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Let's see. I buy a property 2 months ago for 500,000. Now when I try to sell that same unit somehow the land transfer tax increases the price? Please explain. As I see it all things being equal another buyer for that property would only be willing to pay the same 500,000 but because of the land transfer tax he would have to pay me less just to offset the tax. I see no reason why I should be compensated MORE because of a tax. As for your example of purchasing Tide when the GST came into being is just stupid. If you recall the GST is applied everywhere (some provinces did harmonize with the tax) it didn't vary on a city by city basis the way the land transfer tax does.

Mr. Investor or whatever your name is you can't help yourself. You can't stay away from this site and expouse your "sky is falling" BS. Prices may go down (they can't go up forever) but your prediction of all hell breaking loose in the real estate market is false.
 
condocrash2008 said:
Listen Mr. Fanci Pancsi, I never suggested anything remotely similar to 'all hell breaking loose'.
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Although your user name goes some way in suggesting something like this, doesn't it?


And when speaking of the bias of others, only do so after admitting your own bias - which is quite evident. If you won't admit to it others will point it out to you constantly, regardless of how stellar you consider your information and insight to be.
 
nekz said:
The Toronto Real Estate Board is actively lobbying these new tax increases. It's pretty unfair for the city to always run to homeowners, when they can't balance the books...
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It's far more unfair that the province continues to saddle the city with paying for services it shouldn't be providing and doesn't have the revenue to do so anyway.
 
price increase

condocrash2008 said:
In response to the notion that all of sudden buyers will en masse boycott Toronto for Markham because of a 1% fee is ridiculous. The same fence sitters will consider both alternatives but by and large the tax will serve only to increase listings prices. The agents don't like it because they want to be seen as being pro homeowner, but they know the affect will be neutral to them.
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I just don't get it. Why is it that when I sell my property you think I would increase my listing price because of this new tax? As the seller it is not as though I have to collect this tax and remit it to the government from the price I receive from the buyer. If that were true the yes I'd probably try to increase my price so that in the end I could get the same money I expected in the first place. It doesn't get included in my selling price. It is something the buyer must pay to the government at closing (as such could possibly lower prices of properties). This is a tax on the buyer not the seller. Correct me if I am wrong.
 
they were claiming that the GTA's urban sprawl was as a result of increased transit.
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really its transit that is saving us from being a LA traffic jam hell hole...
 
condocrash2008 said:
Read more carefully Nitrogen.
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condocrash2008 - a user name suggesting a crash in the condo market. It's pretty suggestive that you think you know what will happen on the basis of your own beliefs. As for your note about your information being of interest to a "value buyer," that an assumption on your part, isn't it?


It's hydrogen, not nitrogen.

Read more carefully condocrash2008.
 
I do not see any unsustainable and illogical runup un prices. I mean, this runup is not illogical when the Canada's unmployment rate was 7% in 2001 and today's is 5.8%. It's not illogical when the currency changed from 1.70 to 1.0 in relation with the US$. It's not illogical when the economy today is far stronger than in 2001. It's not illogical when Toronto has become the main financial and manufacturing centre in Canada. And the most important thing, this runup is totally sustainable by the strong economy that we have now.
 
carturo15 said:
I do not see any unsustainable and illogical runup un prices. I mean, this runup is not illogical when the Canada's unmployment rate was 7% in 2001 and today's is 5.8%. It's not illogical when the currency changed from 1.70 to 1.0 in relation with the US$. It's not illogical when the economy today is far stronger than in 2001. It's not illogical when Toronto has become the main financial and manufacturing centre in Canada. And the most important thing, this runup is totally sustainable by the strong economy that we have now.
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I concurr. 2007 was the only irrational year in our real estate market with the rise in housing prices outpacing economic growth.

The US is heading into a recession though and it is safe to assume that prices will slow down if not level out altogether. But there will be no condo crash.
 
The economy is booming? Yeah that's funny I lost my job last year in manufacturing. It's always the bottom rung workers (manufacturing biz) that gets hit first by high dollar, high resources costs, inflation blah blah blah. Now the markets are clearly entering a bearish phase and with it the white collar sectors will surely follow. Next up: condocrash2008 will happen whether you're an Investor, a bird, an addict or a godfather to Peter Clewes....

I expect condo developers to begin offering $20,000 "cash back" offers sometime before September 2008. I'm not buying;)
 
I think most of us agree that some slowing down of the condo market is coming, sooner or later, probably later. But it's worth noting that it has been "coming" for, depending on who you're listening to, the past two years, three years, four years, five years, or ...

I heard talk five years ago along very similar lines to what is being posted now on this thread.

It was announced this morning that unemployment is now at 5.8%, the best level in over 30 years. Interest rates are low and almost certainly going lower. Etc ... (not necessary to keep repeating these points)

My prediction (no better than most): a gentle slowing (not a crash, or a bubble bursting, whatever that may look like), beginning possibly in 2009.
 
well no the housing market will not fall that harshly because well one, interest rate and mortgage rates remain quite low and will.

Also, it does not hurt that most of our housing is actually used for its real purpose to house people.:rolleyes:


Speculation exists but it does not dominate the market...


Anyways 23,000 condos were sold in 2007, so if it goes to like what 15000 this year we are still on par at 2006.
 
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