Rainforest
Senior Member
If I remember correctly from looking in the Eglinton EA document, the highest demand is west of Eglinton West station. It stands to figure that most of those people would take the stubway. But not all, which is why the longer route has 30% more riders than the stubway. But that still is only barely over 5,000. I don't see how this is counter-intuitive. This has been studied to death by people more qualified than both of us.
Ridership base of the short stubway:
- Local walk-in
- Transfers from buses: Eglinton West, Treteway (32C), Dufferin, Caledonia, Keele, possibly Weston Rd; total 6 bus routes
Additional ridership base if the line reaches Pearson:
- Local walk-in from the Etobicoke section of Eglinton (some would get there by Eglinton West bus anyway, but higher-order transit can promote higher density)
- Transfers from buses: Jane, Royal York, Islington, Kipling, Martin Grove, possibly Dixon via Scarlett; total 6 additional buses
- Transfers from Mississauga Transitway
- Riders going to / from Pearson
That alone can cause the ridership to increase by a factor of 2.
Furthermore, the long crosstown route does not stop at Eglinton West, it continues to Yonge and beyond. This would add some rides from west of Allen to destination along Yonge line north of CBD, who would otherwise use Bloor.
Common sense suggests that the peak ridership should be 2 - 2.5 times higher for Eglinton Crosstown than for the short stubway, not those mere 30%.
Why do the models predict otherwise? Both of us don't know for sure, but I suspect that they underestimated the transfers from the N-S bus routes, or ignored them altogether.
The loose input assumption in that case is the prediction of riders' behavior. Will they stay on their bus till Bloor, or switch to Eglinton? Human behavior is difficult to predict, and that leaves room for either honest mistakes or deliberate manipulations.
I can't believe that 5,400 figure based solely on the credentials of those who did the modeling. If they show me how they modeled the riders behavior, and their assumptions look reasonable, then that's another matter.
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