[Ken]

See http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/mw2009/pdf/mw0901.pdf

TORONTO - Wednesday, February 4, 2009
TREB Members reported 2,670 sales in
January from the 5,075 sales reported in
the first month of 2008. Of these, 1,106
transactions took place in the City of Toronto
compared to 2,128 in January 2008. In the
surrounding “905†area, 1,564 sales were
recorded, from 2,947 last year.
The GTA housing market has not been immune
to the economic slowdown in Canada. Some
potential home buyers were less-certain
about their positioning in the economy over
the past year. Until the economy rebounds,
and along with it consumer confidence, the
number of existing home sales will be more
moderate in comparison to the average over
the last ten years.
Home prices also moderated in January.
The average MLS selling price dipped
to $343,632. The average price was
$364,415 in the City of Toronto, from
$404,202 in 2008. In the surrounding
regions (“905†area code), the average
price was $328,935 from $352,965 last
year. Buyers have experienced more choice
in the existing home marketplace. Lower
selling prices have resulted.
It should be noted that the GTA housing
market has followed the broader economic
slowdown, but was not a cause of the
downturn. Home prices remained affordable
throughout the new millennium. The average
family can still qualify for a mortgage on
the average priced home. This remains the
case today. Given that we are not facing
an early-1990s-style affordability crisis, the
rebound in the housing market will likely be
quick once economic recovery takes hold.

 

[carturo15]

2.670 transactions with this crappy weather?. Honestly, I think this is still a good number for the GTA. Obviously there is a huge decrease from January 2008, but we need to consider that last January was crazy due to the new Toronto transfer land tax.

 

[Observer Walt]

^ I'm not sure that I'd call it a good result at all. It continues the downward trend which started when the market turned in May 2008.

Sales volume for Jan. 2008 was 5,075. For Jan. 2007 it was 5,173, and for Jan. 2006 it was 4,587. Obviously we are now considerably below that.

An interesting statistic is the "Days on Market" number (length of time to sell the average property). It took a big jump up to 49 days in January, up from the range of 30 to 35 days which has prevailed pretty steadily for years now. Some of the slowing sales may be due to weather but I think the overriding factor is just the poor economic climate.

 

[carturo15]

there is not any doubt about the downward trend and the poor economic climate. But my point is that even with all these problems we are facing, 2.670 transactions for one month is not a bad number at all. It would be nice to have statistics of number of transactions per month for big cities in the world, does anyone has this type of information?

 

[Ken]

Well, I don't have stats for other cities. It's not useful anyways, as it's like comparing apple with orange. It's good to know tho.

I think there is still a lot of downward pressure in GTA. One main factor (I think) is the big 3, (or the auto sector) and the manufacturing sector. They got the bailout during dec but I think that will last 3-5 months -> which means til sometime this Feb to May... Let's hope their sales pick up by then.

I don't know the numbers, but I think there are a lot of auto related work in GTA.

 

[urbandreamer]

What I find interesting about the stats so far? That the suburban 905 is outperforming the City of Toronto. Odd, considering all the 905-manufacturing layoffs.

 

[AKS]

maybe it's the miller tax? But I think also the housing price of 905 is in general cheaper than 416. Also the houses are newer unless people plan to renovate old houses in the 416 which seems less attractive. Costs would be higher.

 

[dpylyp]

Toronto's frosty Market

The stats I cover are for the west end only

January of Last year saw 7000 listings with 1700 sold units - a ratio of almost one in four.

January of this year had 7700 (not the skyrocketting listing increase we heard about) with 1000 sale a difference of one in 7.6 selling

The hesitation factor is higher than ever.

 

[jetsme]

It will be interesting to see how the spring market does. Many sellers are waiting for spring thinking things will be better, but they may just be in for a surprise. Fierce competition from sellers will definitely put downward pressure on prices. Sellers will have no choice but to price aggressively.

Just my two cents. Cheers.