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I felt bad for him too. I hope someone pushes his condo reform work through. He has worked hard for years on that. I always thought he was a good riding rep and was surprised to see him beat so badly
 
Indeed. Rosario Marchese was fantastic, but it was so hard to support him when his party clearly decided to become the voice of suburbia, asking to subsidise gas prices and avoiding urban issues as much as possible.
 
True. When they phoned from his office, I told them I was undecided. When they asked why I might not vote for him, I told them it was hard to support the party and Andrea Horvath. I ended up voting for Marchese because I like him and respect the work he has done; I didn't like any of the party platforms but I wanted to support Rosario.
 
Heh. Yeah.

I can't see this riding voting NDP federally now. Adam Vaughan's a shoo-in.
 
The one thing that could be keeping the NDP in contention is the voter turnout. A by-election after a summer weekend, during Pride, and three weeks after a provincial general election will likely have extremely low turnout. I suspect a low voter turnout helps the NDP because their base feels more pressure to retain the seat given the prominence of Chow and the fact that their orange stronghold is under "threat" after the decisive Hong victory.

I also wouldn't look too much into the Dong victory demoralizing the Cressy camp. Keep in mind that by-election campaigns pool resources and volunteers from across the region. My former housemate in Hamilton was a Liberal member and would get bused out with Hamilton-area Liberals to by-elections in Kitchener and York Region. In the 2012 Toronto Danforth by-election I met an NDP canvasser at my doorstep who was out with his entire Brampton riding association.

Vaughan is still the favourite, but I wouldn't bet the farm on a Liberal blow-out.
 
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King of Kensington said:
What a terrible night for Rosario Marchese. Feel bad for the guy as he was sacrificed by the ONDP's strategy. I didn't think he'd hang on but I didn't think he would have gotten crushed. However he seems to have taken his defeat very graciously.
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Looking at historical results for Trinity Spadina, Rosario didn't seem to loose many votes. He was pretty consistently elected with 17-19k votes, which is in line with the last election.

I wonder how important the riding's demographic shift (condo dwellers) is to the big increase in Liberal support. I'm not sure if EO ever releases vote results by poll, but it would be neat to see if the 'condo polls' are much more pro-Liberal than the more stable areas of the riding.

So, in that sense, he may not have been the victim of any particular NDP campaign blunder so much as the riding becoming less orange.
 
diminutive said:
Looking at historical results for Trinity Spadina, Rosario didn't seem to loose many votes. He was pretty consistently elected with 17-19k votes, which is in line with the last election.

I wonder how important the riding's demographic shift (condo dwellers) is to the big increase in Liberal support. I'm not sure if EO ever releases vote results by poll, but it would be neat to see if the 'condo polls' are much more pro-Liberal than the more stable areas of the riding.

So, in that sense, he may not have been the victim of any particular NDP campaign blunder so much as the riding becoming less orange.
Click to expand...

The poll by pool results for the 2014 general election will be available here eventually:

http://www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/Tools/PastResults.htm

AoD
 
diminutive said:
Looking at historical results for Trinity Spadina, Rosario didn't seem to loose many votes. He was pretty consistently elected with 17-19k votes, which is in line with the last election.

I wonder how important the riding's demographic shift (condo dwellers) is to the big increase in Liberal support. I'm not sure if EO ever releases vote results by poll, but it would be neat to see if the 'condo polls' are much more pro-Liberal than the more stable areas of the riding.

So, in that sense, he may not have been the victim of any particular NDP campaign blunder so much as the riding becoming less orange.
Click to expand...

It takes 6 months for poll-by-poll to come out. Note though the turnout was up this time. I'm pretty sure Marchese didn't just lose because of condo growth, but I'll bet his vote share dropped significantly in the Annex as well. In addition, Han Dong probably ate into his Chinese vote.
 
diminutive said:
Looking at historical results for Trinity Spadina, Rosario didn't seem to loose many votes. He was pretty consistently elected with 17-19k votes, which is in line with the last election.

I wonder how important the riding's demographic shift (condo dwellers) is to the big increase in Liberal support. I'm not sure if EO ever releases vote results by poll, but it would be neat to see if the 'condo polls' are much more pro-Liberal than the more stable areas of the riding.

So, in that sense, he may not have been the victim of any particular NDP campaign blunder so much as the riding becoming less orange.
Click to expand...

I have to agree with you, great point on the same number of NDP votes 17-19 thousand of each of his wins, and he still had that same number. The difference is that the Liberal candidate was able to jump over the 20,000 mark but not really grabbing votes from anybody but just getting more votes. (Everybody but the NDP bumped up their voting numbers in TrinSpa this election it seems)

By a quick count it looks like 10,000 more votes from 2011 and most of them seem to be in the Liberal category. You kind of saw this coming with Thomson coming so close to winning last time. This year the Liberal did a lot more cross promotion provincially and federally with this riding for Dong.

Cressy is probably in a bit of trouble, but I did see a lot of mixed signs Cressy\Dong, Vaughan\Marchese on peoples homes so maybe people are not just voting straight up party lines. But the momentum is certainly behind the Liberals.
 
Can't say I'm happy with Vaughan's decision to pull out of a debate on environmental issues in the last minute in order to have a pizza party with Scott Brison.
 
... a fact that the Cressy campaign has made a prominent note of on its Facebook feed. I wouldn't normally say this sort of thing matters (apart from looking bad), but lesser stories have had legs. I also don't think there are many other ridings in Canada as in love with its social media as Trinity--Spadina.

Vaughan ducking out leaves a rather bad taste in the mouth.
 
It's face-saving. It's a way of saying the NDP platform was unpopular with Trinity-Spadina voters without attacking the party or Horwath.
 
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