So I wonder if they're modulating the number of streetcars as the mean capacity per streetcar increases. The CLRV's have a crush load of 132 versus a full load for a new Flexity of 251. So if peak is scheduled for 23 CLRV's, the same load could be serviced with only 12 Flexities. From what I understand they backed off replacing them on an exact capacity basis, but we definitely won't need 23 flexities for Spadina, that would be hilarious.
they don't do anything close to crush loads for planning. And you seldom see crush loads out there, unless everyone loads at one station after an event or something - people just won't stand that close together.
When a stretcar is operating at crush load - or even anything above peak - it takes forever to load and unload, because the doors open, and the people trying to get out, can't get to the door; first you unload people, and the people wanting out get out, and then you reload people; and then some idiot is standing on the steps and the door doesn't close ... Needless to say, it doesn't work.
The peak loads TTC uses are published at
http://www.ttc.ca/PDF/Transit_Planning/Crowding_Standards_2015.pdf - so 74 for a CLRV, 108 for a ALRV, and 130 for a Flexity. I recall on a particularly crowded CLRV once, when I was standing at the top of the steps, and leaning backwards over the stairs, I got the chance to do a head count - and counted 80 people in the car. I have no idea how you'd fit 132 in.
There will be some changes in the number of cars out there once they change over. Though not as much as you'd think, as they are running overcapacity on most routes in AM peak already. For example, the 15 CLRVs out there on 510 during AM peak becaome 12 Flexities.
You can also see this in the total number, where we are replacing 196 CLRV and 52 ALRVS with only 204 Flexities.
Though as times has passed and streetcar ridership has grown 33% since they ordered the Flexities in 2009 (and 53% since they decided to order them in 2006 based on 2005 ridership), they've also decided to keeping 30 ALRVs.