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I am surprised and delighted that BBD look set to meet the 30 target, but I hope momentum is maintained and that there isn't a lull again once the deadline has passed. If the pace has picked up then discussions about the 60 car option and the attaining of the MTBF target will get a lot more real, not to mention being ready for panto only cars!
There would be more cars arrived in the second half of next year than the first half as they get their 2nd assembly line up and running. We'll probably only see 2 cars a month early next year. A pause in January is likely cause they rushed the December ones out the plant.
With 40 cars expected next year, we'll probably see the TTC discuss the 60 car option in Q2 2017. At that point, we'll see the 509, 510 and 514 converted to flexity's. The TTC should be ready for pantos soon.
 
TTC will be face with some hard decision come May-Sept 2017 for production as they near the delivery of the 60th car and the current poor MTBF. TTC should have a better handle on the MTBF issue to the point they will know what is the biggest reason for it and what needs to happen to fix it. If it still a design/production problem(s), then production needs to stop to deal with the issue(s). No sense keeping producing cars with problems and hope they will be fix over time like the TR fleet, causing headaches for TTC from top to bottom, let alone riders.

The 6oth car is supposed to be the last car with poles. The delivery of the 60th car is supposed to be a tell tail point about ordering the extra 60 plus extra cars, but don't see it happening in 2017, as there is no funds in the budget to do so. That may happen in 2019.

The conversion to pans was to happen months ago and then push to the end of the year. A number of the main intersection still not converted yet as plan and will be early-mid 2017 now. Until King, Queen and Roncesvalles yard is 100% pan ready, poles will be use until the conversion is complete. We know 509, 510, 511 and 512 are pan ready with Dufferin and a good chunk of 504/501/514 that are ready for pans at this time.

Since the push is to have 509, 510 and 514 100% new fleet first, 511 should be the next line to be Flexity somewhere around June 2017. Is TTC going to stick with the roll out plan or change it and we will most likely find out early 2017. The goal I know was to move the first 60 cars with poles out onto other route as the pan only cars show up until the full conversion of the OS was complete for all lines. That still can happen late 2017 or early 2018 since delivery is so late.
 
There would be more cars arrived in the second half of next year than the first half as they get their 2nd assembly line up and running. We'll probably only see 2 cars a month early next year. A pause in January is likely cause they rushed the December ones out the plant.

Once again....

They can't rush out of the plant. The TTC's agents need to sign off on virtually every step of construction, before signing off on see the fully assembled car run through a battery of tests. They don't leave until everything checks out.

If Bombardier is serious about shipping three cars in the next two weeks, than it looks like they've finally turned the corner on most (or all?) of their production problems.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
Once again....

They can't rush out of the plant. The TTC's agents need to sign off on virtually every step of construction, before signing off on see the fully assembled car run through a battery of tests. They don't leave until everything checks out.

If Bombardier is serious about shipping three cars in the next two weeks, than it looks like they've finally turned the corner on most (or all?) of their production problems.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
Rushing meaning paying for more overtime work.
 
Rushing meaning paying for more overtime work.


I think in the context is when will the ninja/hawkeye/nazi checks and signoffs on every stage can be relaxed as production intensifies....obviously since bbr is still yet to delivery as promised and qc is shit, we cant do that but hopefully one day they can speed up the process with less extreme checks and balances
 
I think in the context is when will the ninja/hawkeye/nazi checks and signoffs on every stage can be relaxed as production intensifies....obviously since bbr is still yet to delivery as promised and qc is shit, we cant do that but hopefully one day they can speed up the process with less extreme checks and balances
They really rushed it last year with 4416. Andy Byford and the TTC knew they rushed it while it took a whole month to complete it's burn in. Let's hope 4430 won't take a whole month.

In reality, every vehicle could have a possibility of early failure. Bus or streetcar. Many of the new Nova buses get sent back for repairs shortly afterwards. The real question is how are the cars that have been in service for over a year is performing. Are they all performing terrible or is it specific to a certain few. An average failure rate doesn't tell us anything while the quote saying the same thing on every CEO report doesn't help either. The TR's meets target after a few years so we could wait and see. If there is an improvement with older cars, there should a slow but steady upwards trend as more arrives.
 
The tracker has 4427 heading westbound on King St E, west of River St.

It also has 4402 in service heading westbound on Gerrard, at Pape Ave. Its odd that 4402 would be in service on Gerrard 506 to go into service on 510 or has TTC decided 506 is the next line to put cars onto???.
 
They really rushed it last year with 4416. Andy Byford and the TTC knew they rushed it while it took a whole month to complete it's burn in. Let's hope 4430 won't take a whole month.

They didn't rush anything. It went through the exact same steps of construction/assembly, and got the exact same approvals at all of those steps. Yes, 4416 had some sort of issue during its break-in and testing run. Guess what - you've got a vehicle with hundreds, if not thousands of systems. Shit happens. The likelihood of every single car out of an order of 204 (or more) not having a fault during any step of the acceptance process is virtually impossible.

In reality, every vehicle could have a possibility of early failure. Bus or streetcar. Many of the new Nova buses get sent back for repairs shortly afterwards. The real question is how are the cars that have been in service for over a year is performing. Are they all performing terrible or is it specific to a certain few. An average failure rate doesn't tell us anything while the quote saying the same thing on every CEO report doesn't help either. The TR's meets target after a few years so we could wait and see. If there is an improvement with older cars, there should a slow but steady upwards trend as more arrives.

Agreed. And the other issue is that one or two faults on a small fleet can skew the numbers downwards. That's why the reliability clause doesn't kick in until the 60th car - at that point, they should have a large enough fleet that they can discern the more long-term trends.

It also has 4402 in service heading westbound on Gerrard, at Pape Ave. Its odd that 4402 would be in service on Gerrard 506 to go into service on 510 or has TTC decided 506 is the next line to put cars onto???.

Most of the cars sign in to the 506 to test their stop calling and announcement systems, for whatever reason. Assuming that the testing is completely successfully, 4402 should be accepted by the TTC in about 2 days.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
 
TTC 4428, the 28th Flexity tram, is on its way from Thunder Bay as of Sunday, December 4th, 2016. Here it is on Friday morning, December 2nd, 2016, waiting for pickup from the Bombardier plant, by the CP switcher. This image was taken from Neebing Avenue, looking south through the open gate. Bryan Martyniuk photo with permission.

cr TTC4428.jpg
 

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I see TTC 4402 in service, on nextbus.com, southbound on the 510 Spadina line as of 5:06pm, Sunday, December 4th, 2016. It is actually eastbound on the Queen's Quay portion of the route, towards Union Station.
 

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