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My stats prof back in grad school used to caution us: "Before you run a regression analysis, run an inter-occular shock test first"

What strikes me (between the eyes) is three sequences of a problem arising, resulting in a significant worsening in delivery time, followed by progressive improvement in production time, until a new problem emerges and the cycle goes back to the drawing board. My hypothesis would be that 4423 was hit by a new problem. Hopefully the next few dots will improve on things.

- Paul
 
Noodling on that chart a little more (gad, opening this topic is worse than a bag of Lays' Potato Chips...just can't stop....)

If my theory of "problem setback and gradual recovery" holds any water, we will see production intervals improve by about ten days per car until production hits a steady ten days per car (that pace is pulled out of thin air, but it fits the data graph).

If so - optimally, the next delivery could be expected around Aug 27 (30 days), then Sept 17 (20 days) Oct 2 (15 days) and then Oct 12, 31, Nov 10, 20, 30, Dec 9, 19, 29.

So my prediction is 11 more cars this year - anyone care to start a pool?

- Paul

EDIT - PS - my less optimal theory is that some component is sourced in batches of five cars' worth of material - each time there is a delivery, production begins and performance gradually improves until the available material is exhausted and we wait for a new delivery to start the next assembly run. Just spitballing.
 
the lemur said:
Looks like it held up pretty well. What's the situation in terms of spare parts - does the TTC have an inventory or do they need to be ordered?
Click to expand...

The bumper has to be ordered from Bombardier. They originally said three days waiting time, but their Mexican suppliers forgot how to use paint, so we're looking at four months now.
 
the lemur said:
Looks like it held up pretty well. What's the situation in terms of spare parts - does the TTC have an inventory or do they need to be ordered?
Click to expand...
I agree, that looks better than expected given the damage to the SUV. My guess is someone decided to pop a U-turn without looking. I've often wondered why Toronto doesn't ban U-turns on streets with streetcar tracks. Not only does it seem dangerous, but I often find drivers fail to make the U-turn and instead end up doing a 3 to 7 point turn depending on the lack of skill of the driver.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
What's wrong with 3 point turns?
Click to expand...
Very few drivers know how to do it in the first place.

Not easy to do a u-turn when there is no room to do one in the first place.

Why ban u-turn is there is tracks there because some one fail to make sure they could do one safely in the first place??

I expect 4423 is having the same issue as 4422 and a few other cars. Still in the service bay.

Then you have drivers who fail to yield for the driver making the u-turn or 3-7 point turn.
 
k10ery said:
*headdesk*

Try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_linear_regression to get you started. But, in an equation,

t^2 = DF * R^2/(1-R^2)
Click to expand...
Something like that - sorry I don't memorize t-test equations. Looks so much simpler than the nightmares it used to give me 30 years or so ago. I'll leave it as an exercise for a user though.

Napoleon said:
I've often wondered why Toronto doesn't ban U-turns on streets with streetcar tracks.
Click to expand...
I used to live, and frequently park, on Gerrard. I'd say about 50% of my trip starts or ends involved a U-turn on the tracks. Not once did I ever come close to a streetcar. If one is in the way when you get home, you just pull to the side until you are clear. If it's there when you leave, you wait.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
What's wrong with 3 point turns?
Click to expand...
I moved to TO over 15 years ago and was amazed at the number of people who made 3 point turns, and did so very badly. I was also amazed at how other drivers usually waited patiently while they tried! In most other cities you would not dare to make these turns, not because you might get a ticket but because you might get killed. Are they really legal in Toronto?
 
For people who like to track where the new streetcars are....at 8pm tonight 4 of them were at the stop at Bremnar/Fort York and Spadina....2 in each direction at the same stop....looked really weird.
 
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