The apparent unexpected arrival of 4450 seems to dispute that point. 4449 by all accounts was spotted in Thunder Bay yard around October 22nd and arrived last week. If 4450 was really spotted on Bathurst on October 31st that would mean that 4450 was shipped no more than 3 days after 4449
Given my first point and if the frequency remains constant 4465 could very well arrive before that cutoff.
Mean distance between failures of 35000 km is a nice number to have if you are dealing with essentially an off-the-shelf product. The TTC customizations in my opinion make this number an incredibly difficult feat to achieve so early in the contract.
I can't help but blame the City of Toronto and the TTC for these delays. They have a well-known history of putting off vehicle replacements well beyond what can reasonably be expected to be the maximum age of a vehicle before reliability goes down the drain. (look at how many times they refurbished the GMDD New Looks to keep them in service).
NA hasn't been a really big market for streetcars since the PCC days. The last time Bombardier built streetcars for the NSLSC market was back when it was the Crown corporation UTDC. Since then the lack of a market for them leeched all the engineering talent out of UTDC to other companies/countries.
The production of Light rail vehicles however is a growing market in North America with several big projects coming up.
503-506 are all ready to ship (503 & 504 have been for 2+ weeks now). Regional council meets today at 7 PM so we'll probably learn what is delaying them then. My thoughts are Metrolinx wanting to do some multiple unit proof-of-concept testing (trains of 2/3/4 vehicles) and other stuff before the first production Eglinton Crosstown vehicles begin assembly. We have the 4 functional vehicles there already to do it (they have 2 functional vehicles there too).
Your assertion that ION won't be in service until mid-late summer 2018 is unfounded and frankly unlikely given that assembly of the vehicles is going quite well. 502-506 are assembled and functional, 501 assembled and non-functional (requires about 2-4 weeks with a Bombardier crew to make functional), and 507-514 in various states of assembly with the lower numbers more assembled than higher numbers.
The assembly of the first production Eglinton Crosstown (5 module single cab) / Edmonton Valley Line (7 module dual cab) vehicles should be getting underway fairly soon.
First off, ION cars are being delay by the Region with 503 due at the end of Nov and 504 at the end of Dec. Based on the various changes and the delay by the Region, summer start up will happen. You need time to do burn in as well train the drivers before taking cars from end to end for training as well getting everyone aware on the new thing on the road they will be dealing with on a daily base.
As for BBD not doing cars in NA, you need to look at the cars built for Minneapolis Blue Line in early 2000's that had the same issues as the first batch of TTC cars. Unlike TTC, Minneapolis had no experience with streetcars and did what BBD wanted to do for TTC, which TTC said no. Since that order, the Blue line has expanded both in the number of cars per set as well length. At the same time, the Green Line has been built and a number of new lines under or about to start construction with all the cars going to Siemens. What happen to BBD not bidding on these cars??? In fact, there been close to a 1,000 cars order in this time frame with Siemens having the lion share and a back log of over 400 cars.
Again, why hasn't BBD being bidding on these cars since they will be built in the US like Minneapolis order or even pickup another order?
A lot of cars for your supposed big projects coming up have already been tender. The US is getting back into the streetcars game, but mostly on a small scale requiring only a few cars.
There used to be 2 US builders of cars, but only one today with the rest being off shore with plants here now. You only need to go to Detroit to see cars built by the only US company and its not ready for prime time as well the system, but in the right direction.
How can you blame TTC and Toronto for BBD delaying the new cars when they have no control over them in the first place?? Toronto knew in the 90's that TTC needed a new fleet, but weren't willing to do it since too many councilors were long in the tooth and not prepare to pay the cost to have these cars order on their watch. A plan was hatch in 2005 to order new cars, but not as many TTC wanted. TTC is enforcing what they contracted for and up to BBD to comply with the contract.
As for the failure rate, its in the contract and must be achieved by the 60th cars, not at the end of the contract, like the TR. The TR are all built and been in service for X years, yet there are doors problems on them today, similar to the new streetcar fleet as well other issues.
A contract is a contract and you must comply with it 100%, otherwise you pay the price not doing so.
As for delivery, I do what TTC does and note the date they are on TTC Property as per the contract, not ready for pickup. Below is a table of time frame between deliveries for this as well how long it took to get them into service. Both TTC and BBD have no control how long it takes to get a car from the plant to TTC, but CP does. Its is also why TTC wanted delivery to their property like any contractor with sub trades before cost has to be paid out.
4431
4432 18 days
4433 30
4434 18
4435 16
4436 16
4437 17
4438 17
4439 7
4440 18
4441 23
4442 14
4443 15
4444 13
4445 5
4446 9
4447 14
4448 1
4449 14
4450 5
Only 3 delivers less than 7 days so far this year.
In Service From the day it was off loaded
4431 9
4432 10
4433 9
4434 12
4435 24
4436 18
4437 10
4438 10
4439 15
4440 9
4441 22
4442 14
4443 14
4444 17
4445 16
4446 10
4447 9
4448 14
4449 -6 On Schedule for 9/10 days to be in service Nov 4/5
4450 -2