[MBS-Guru]

Scary numbers again .....

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2008/nr1101908.htm

44% decline in sales compared to last November

36% increase in number of new listings compared to last November.

 

[Solaris]

To provide the bigger picture, it is not as bad as the numbers suggest because 2007 was a crazy boom year, if you compare 2008 with the 2006 numbers its not THAT depressing ... the sky isn't really falling

***************

It’s particularly important to interpret the 416 area statistics in context given the market surge we saw a year ago when buyers moved to avoid the new Toronto Land Transfer Tax,†said Ms. O’Neill. “At mid- month a year ago, transactions in the 416 area had increased 24 per cent over the same period in 2006.â€

In the first two weeks of November 2008, the average price of a home in the GTA was $375,712 compared to $393,084 recorded a year ago.

In the 416 area, homes are currently selling for an average of $400,305 from the $432,972 average recorded during the same time period in 2007. An average price of $383,029 was recorded in the first two weeks of November 2006.

In the 905 Region the average price is currently $358,130 from $358,610 recorded a year ago. During the first half of November 2006 the average price was recorded at $336,576.

 

[daveto]

To provide the bigger picture, it is not as bad as the numbers suggest because 2007 was a crazy boom year, if you compare 2008 with the 2006 numbers its not THAT depressing ... the sky isn't really falling

November mid-month sales are down 45% from 2007. If you compare them to 2006, sales are down 30%.

So in fairness, you are correct. Presuming a linear scale of depression comparison, the figures compared to 2006 are only 2/3rs as depressing as compared to 2007.

If one adds in the lower prices, and adjusting for inflation, this translates to a 38% decrease in revenue for the Toronto real estate industry from 2006. Personally, if my industry had just experienced a 38% revenue decrease I would be depressed. But I guess I wouldn't be THAT depressed.

 

[condoboy]

November mid-month sales are down 45% from 2007. If you compare them to 2006, sales are down 30%.

So in fairness, you are correct. Presuming a linear scale of depression comparison, the figures compared to 2006 are only 2/3rs as depressing as compared to 2007.

If one adds in the lower prices, and adjusting for inflation, this translates to a 38% decrease in revenue for the Toronto real estate industry from 2006. Personally, if my industry had just experienced a 38% revenue decrease I would be depressed. But I guess I wouldn't be THAT depressed.

Forget real estate...I think I might just get into some stocks right about now. Google is down today big time and a lot of other big-time companies for that matter. Hopefully it'll bottom out soon and I can get in there before all the bottom feeders create a feeding frenzy and things start to turn around

 

[cdr108]

Forget real estate...I think I might just get into some stocks right about now. Google is down today big time and a lot of other big-time companies for that matter. Hopefully it'll bottom out soon and I can get in there before all the bottom feeders create a feeding frenzy and things start to turn around

Wait for 6 months, then re-evaluate.

 

[condoboy]

Wait for 6 months, then re-evaluate.

Why 6 months? Is that your prediction for rock bottom?

 

[Solaris]

Toronto Star - Canada's housing boom over: Scotia Economics

its slowing down but its not all doom + gloom

**********

November 20, 2008
THE CANADIAN PRESS

The latest real estate report from Scotia Economics has good news for home buyers and bad news for sellers: Canada is becoming a buyer's market.

The report says the longest postwar housing boom has come to an end, with prices dropping most in previously booming cities such as Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.

But Scotia says Canada's real estate market slowdown is nowhere near the same scale as the collapse experienced in the United States.

Analysts say Canada's housing market is fundamentally different from its American counterpart.

The report says Canada's market is not overburdened with unsold houses, and new-home construction has slowed to reflect the flagging economy.

The report also says the slide in Canada's housing market is consistent with a global trend that saw prices drop in 10 developed countries this year.

 

[cdr108]

Why 6 months? Is that your prediction for rock bottom?

No, but be wary of brief bear market rallies.

 

[condoboy]

No, but be wary of brief bear market rallies.

Now is the time when millionaires are made....I just don't know exactly where the bottom is in all of this? I think 50 or 60 a pop for a company like Apple in a few months will be the floor....and then I'll get in and go long, Google too. These companies will never go down and their stocks at the moment are way under valued! I just wish I had more cash on me . Apple is trading at about $85/share while it's 52wk high was $200, and google is at $276 with it's high at $720!!! Am I crazy or is there opportunity here?

 

[cdr108]

These companies will never go down and their stocks at the moment are way under valued!

I would like to hear your reasoning.

 

[condoboy]

I would like to hear your reasoning.

Google = World's search engine leader + profitable company + worldwide + internet (will forever exist) + intrinsic in nature + etc.etc.etc.

Apple = Global Leader in Mobile Technology + Iphones + macs + Itunes + Profitable + Looking to expand to other markets (Asia and China) + etc.etc.etc.

Need I say more!

 

[urbandreamer]

No. Imho google isn't worth more than $10/share. APPL will be experiencing rapidly declining growth soon, as consumers no longer buy the latest toys.

But, F(ord) and GM were excellent buys today--instant doubles.

 

[condoboy]

No. Imho google isn't worth more than $10/share. APPL will be experiencing rapidly declining growth soon, as consumers no longer buy the latest toys.

But, F(ord) and GM were excellent buys today--instant doubles.

In my opinion...if one of the big 3, or all of the big 3 fall....we will be witness to the greatest market CRASH this world has EVER seen!!! And I will be there to buy, buy, and buy some more . These are exciting times indeed!

 

[Observer Walt]

I agree that we are nowhere near as bad as the U.S., where the situation is disastrous in some areas. Having said that, I sense that we are in for a longer and more serious downturn than predicted even a couple of months ago.

I talk to agents regularly. Over the past few weeks several have told me that, after a slow and gentle decline earlier in the year, we seem to have hit "a wall" fairly suddenly in September. Volumes are dropping steadily, prices have taken a real hit in some (not all) districts, the time it takes to sell the typical property has increased (37 days during October). There is suddenly a general feel of, not just healthy caution, but real pessimism.

 

[cdr108]

Google = World's search engine leader + profitable company + worldwide + internet (will forever exist) + intrinsic in nature + etc.etc.etc.

Apple = Global Leader in Mobile Technology + Iphones + macs + Itunes + Profitable + Looking to expand to other markets (Asia and China) + etc.etc.etc.

Need I say more!

Proper analysis would be more credible.
At what prices would you consider them to be "bargains"?
One should never look at historical high prices as a reference to it being "bargains".
But go ahead and buy buy buy !!!