[Mountain Man]

Can any of our shipments to the Midwest be put on a tanker and shipped through the St Lawrence Seaway? I'm sure we could increase tanker traffic from Transmountain if the US wants to overtax our oil. Environmentalists in BC and Quebec would do everything they can to stop this though, so not a lot of good solutions...

Fucking Trump, can't believe that shit won. I fully expect a lot of regret after inflation skyrockets despite him "fixing it" as he promised lol.

 

[darwink]

Can any of our shipments to the Midwest be put on a tanker and shipped through the St Lawrence Seaway? I'm sure we could increase tanker traffic from Transmountain if the US wants to overtax our oil. Environmentalists in BC and Quebec would do everything they can to stop this though, so not a lot of good solutions...

Fucking Trump, can't believe that shit won. I fully expect a lot of regret after inflation skyrockets despite him "fixing it" as he promised lol.

This currently happens on Enbridge’s Line 9.

This ship left Montreal with a load of crude going to Quebec City not too long ago.

Maybe an extra 100,000 barrels a day could be exported via that path. More likely though is substitution, where Canadian light oil will travel further to substitute American light oil.

Also there will be weirdness in the Midwest and gulf coast. It might make sense to preferentially export refined products made from Canadian oil, as it might not count as an import depending on the rule writing.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Who else can refine heavy Canadian crude? My understanding is not a lot of others can refine it. I read American refiners would need to invest decent amounts to be able to refine more American product. With the lack of certainty of a 25% terrif, why would you as a refinery make that investment. You're just going to pay the terrif. That's the issue with these, if they actually spurred a shift to more a domestic product in the US then it makes sense for them to be protectionist. The short and medium term pain until then is almost unfathomable. American's will pay the terrif if it comes to be.

Until the actual circus comes to town maybe "Team Canada" can satisfy the clown.

 

[InfrastructureEnthusiast]

This is misunderstanding who has pricing power in the market. Alberta doesn't. We cannot ship elsewhere. So instead of raising prices in the midwest, this move lowers prices in Alberta.

As of this moment, WTI Gulf Coast (Midland) is up 0.72%, WCS down 3.88%.

Sounds like it's time to dust off the northern gateway plans then!

Being able to get more petroleum products out to our Pacific allies might be a good idea regardless, plus in a world of increased tariff walls we could start seeing more barter based trade deals too.

I wonder how open Japan would be to an 'oil for rail' deal to help get Alberta Rail off the ground faster?

Maybe even get them to help with an Okanagan commuter rail line and a skytrain for Victoria to cover BCs skin in the game..

 

[darwink]

With the lack of certainty of a 25% terrif, why would you as a refinery make that investment. You're just going to pay the terrif.

The problem is where the incidence lies.

Worldwide, there are options of course. Other consumers of heavyish blends could swap with Canada/USA, so no one paid the tariff at the price of efficiency. If in the middle of Saskatchewan there was a deep water port!

But there isn't. Then there is that Canada competes with Mexico at the Gulf Coast. If Mexico prices shift to change buyers (the market being fungible could easily swap with Saudi Arabia or Iraq for example), then the Alberta price works backwards from the Saudi delivered price, minus tolls minus the tariff. The market finds an equilibrium after half a year or so, and we can see what the tariff incidence looks like for Canadian producers vs American consumers.

 

[darwink]

Sounds like it's time to dust off the northern gateway plans then!

Being able to get more petroleum products out to our Pacific allies might be a good idea regardless, plus in a world of increased tariff walls we could start seeing more barter based trade deals too.

I wonder how open Japan would be to an 'oil for rail' deal to help get Alberta Rail off the ground faster?

Maybe even get them to help with an Okanagan commuter rail line and a skytrain for Victoria to cover BCs skin in the game..

There is no need for any fancy deals. Get oil onto a tanker, it will sell.

There was a proposal not taken seriously due to its audacity, the Eagle Spirit Pipeline. A Ft-Mac direct.

2 million barrels a day targeted. The route was pretty flexible on this one, at one point targeting the Stewart on the Portland Canal and another targeting Kitsault on the end of Alice Arm. Different from the map, as every proposal eventually learns, going on the banks of the Skeena is near impossible due to seismic risk.

If the regulatory risk is the same no matter the size of the project, may as well go all in with one massive project.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Fair point, I go back to the reason for the tariff. It isn't to boost American consumption of American oil, I would actually understand it more if that were the case. It is a make believe issue of dangers to the US coming across the Canadian border.

I'll also say we need Ford/Smith to stop bending knee to Trump about our border actually being the issue. We don't need to humiliate Trump but you'd think Ford and Smith were trying to get a cabinet position.

 

[trtcttc]

Fair point, I go back to the reason for the tariff. It isn't to boost American consumption of American oil, I would actually understand it more if that were the case. It is a make believe issue of dangers to the US coming across the Canadian border.

I'll also say we need Ford/Smith to stop bending knee to Trump about our border actually being the issue. We don't need to humiliate Trump but you'd think Ford and Smith were trying to get a cabinet position.

I think the reason Ford and Smith is trying to put pressure on the border because there's some thought this is just a negotiation tactic. So once Mexico/Canada pledge to do xyz on the border, Trump can claim a win the day he gets into office. If they keep the message on the border, and get the press to talk about the actions Canada is taking, more likely Trump can get his "win".

And to your first point on tariffs, it isn't necessary in a country that has one of the highest output and lowest unemployment in the world. Even if American refineries can now refine American oil, and the oil fields hire up people to extract that oil, another area of the economy will now be short workers, say construction. US output is at or exceeding their potential capacity, so any gains from tariffs will be minor, even if they work as intended. American don't "feel" like the richest country in the world because of income inequality and lack of redistribution.

Signals of continued economic resilience from the output gap | FRED Blog

fredblog.stlouisfed.org

 

[Mountain Man]

Just wait until Trump's massive deportation, that will strip the US of workers lol. If it ever actually happens.

I think Smith and Ford are sucking up to him because they want to pander to his Canadian base. Nothing like a sycophant politician...

 

[CalgaryTiger]

IMO the obvious move here is to spend some money on the border but have it count towards our 2% NATO spend. If they can thread that needle hopefully they can give trump a heart attack.

 

[DougB]

Just wait until Trump's massive deportation, that will strip the US of workers lol. If it ever actually happens.

I think Smith and Ford are sucking up to him because they want to pander to his Canadian base. Nothing like a sycophant politician...

For Smith, it is a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Trump going medieval on the Government of Canada can only be a positive for Alberta.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Trump going medieval on the Government of Canada can only be a positive for Alberta.

I had to delete what I really want to say...

There can be some negative outcomes for Alberta if Trump goes "medieval on the Government of Canada".

I will never understand people who think so negatively about the Government of their country that they think a national negative can only be good for me and my province because I don't like some things the government does.

The Albertan before Canadian thing frankly disgusts me.

 

[DougB]

I had to delete what I really want to say...

There can be some negative outcomes for Alberta if Trump goes "medieval on the Government of Canada".

I will never understand people who think so negatively about the Government of their country that they think a national negative can only be good for me and my province because I don't like some things the government does.

The Albertan before Canadian thing frankly disgusts me.

Is it suprising that a federal government that so blatantly picks winners and losers and strays from operating within its jurisdiction threatens national unity? The Natural Governing Party reaps what it sows.

The concessions that Canada will likely make to remain within the US tariff wall are all positive:
-stricter border control
-higher defence spending
-opening the dairy, poultry, telecom, media, commerical air travel and financial services indsutry to competition

These may threaten the final vesitages of the anachronism that is Lautentian Capitalism, but so what?

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Is it suprising that a federal government that so blatantly picks winners and losers and strays from operating within its jurisdiction threatens national unity? The Natural Governing Party reaps what it sows.

There isn't a vacuum that exists where the federal government is the only government guilty of the things you mention:

Picking winners and loser
- Governments twists themselves into knots for the hand that feeds them

• Alberta: Oil and Gas
• Saskatchewan: Potash
• Ontario: Manufacturing

Alberta has never drilled like its drilling now. Removing the carbon tax and not pursuing an emissions cap would help them drill more but the people of Canada (whether you agree with them or not) did elect the federal government to take environmental action. The most carbon intensive industry was never going to escape that.

Strays from operating within its jurisdiction
-Governments insert themselves into things in their own best interest

• Alberta: Institutes party politics at the municipal level because they're tired of people electing representatives that actually represent them and not electing a banner.
• Ontario: Removes bike lanes from Toronto streets because losing a lane of travel is the reason Toronto traffic is so bad and not decades of poor city building.

Is it frustrating having a government that doesn't represent your personal values? Yes!

The anti-Canada rhetoric from people that are willing to cheer on the demise of the country so Alberta can get a little more oil drilled will never square with me.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

The concessions that Canada will likely make to remain within the US tariff wall are all positive:
-stricter border control
-higher defence spending
-opening the dairy, poultry, telecom, media, commerical air travel and financial services indsutry to competition

These may threaten the final vesitages of the anachronism that is Lautentian Capitalism, but so what?

I don't see these any of these being a positive for Alberta.

Suspending the fact that they will not move the needle at all. The size and sparsely populated country make telecom, media, commercial air travel competition impossible because of the costs. Not to mention if competition does emerge it will be where there actually is population, in Southern Ontario not Alberta.