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SP!RE

SP!RE

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Hi folks,

My parents are thinking of buying a condo somewhere right downtown or on Queen's Quay, and I would be using the condo to live in during university, and to them it would be an urban getaway.

Thus, waiting for a new project to be completed wouldn't make any sense.

Will used condos such as ones @ Pinnacle Centre, Waterclub, Riviera, or ones up in the CBD like 33 University (Empire Plaza), or anywhere at all (along Bay, 22 Wellesley, Radio City, anywhere) be going up in price, staying fairly stable, or dropping?

Depending on the type of responses we get, we'll either wait to buy as more used ones come up for sale, or we will buy soon.

-URBAN!TY

PS. are any used units coming up for sale at more recent projects like Radio City, 22 Wellesley, SPIRE, College Park, etc?
 
I keep my eyes on the MLS for Spire units every few days (since the building hit the market)... the prices have been falling, with the notable exception of the one's being sold by Sotheby's (stubborn bastards). I'm seeing 2 BD/2 BR higher floor units now falling to around the $500,000 mark. The prices hit an all-time peak early spring and have been dropping fairly drastically all summer long.

Just go to MLS.CA and use the postal code M5C to see what's available there...
 
I've noticed that trending, too. There are two or three buildings I have been watching in particular, and suddenly I've noticed on mls.ca 3 or 4 units available in those buildings now. A year ago I'd be lucky to see one.
Trend or anamoly?
 
Real estate goes in cycles. Its been a long up cycle, and the price increase (inflation adjusted) has recently hit zero in year-over-year terms.

In the condo market downtown there have been a large number of units come online in the last few years, and a large number coming online in the next couple.

I've seen a 15% increase in listings in the M5V postal code in the past 6 weeks. Almost all are condo units.

There is a global credit crisis, and credit (ie a mortgage) is a requisite for most people to purchase real estate.

All of the above are facts.

I will be shocked if we don't see YOY Toronto price decreases in real terms for August (and thus a decrease in inflation adjusted prices)

My 2 cents.
 
Building to building, neighbourhood to neighbourhood is different... but prices in the downtown area generally hold up well.
 
So if we buy a used condo in one year or two years, it's not gonna be a noticeable price difference from if we buy one this year?
 
URBAN!TY said:
So if we buy a used condo in one year or two years, it's not gonna be a noticeable price difference from if we buy one this year?
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I don't believe so... not in downtown... but it would be impossible to predict if and how much. Prices have held up well so far in the buildings you've mentioned. You should talk to an agent as they can provide you a sales history/trend... If you're looking to move in, you can ride out any sort of market condition anyway... this is not a buy a flip investment for you.
 
Moving to a well developed area downtown shouldn't be a cause for concern.

It sounds like you are planning to own the property for the long term and I think owning in any city as large as Toronto in the downtown core will always produce significant gains.

Imagine if you had purchased property in the 70s or 80s downtown. How much would that property be worth now... significantly more than inflation because of the densification of the urban core.

If you plan on owning in a dense area downtown for a long period of time, you won't be disapointed because Toronto's population continues to grow.
 
daveto said:
I will be shocked if we don't see YOY Toronto price decreases in real terms for August (and thus a decrease in inflation adjusted prices)
Click to expand...

Well, the month may be only half over, but it seems unlikely we'll see a decrease in August YOY prices.

The TREB mid-month data is showing a 5% increase.
http://toreal.blogs.com/

Given my prognostication I guess that means I'm half-shocked, but trending towards shocked.
 
Predictions by most knowledgeable real estate people, including CMHC and economics departments at a couple of the major banks, are not pointing toward a decrease in values in the Toronto market this year. Prices are still increasing, at a rate of about 2 - 3% year-over-year. My prediction for whatever it is worth is that this will prove to be the story for the entire year.

As for the credit crisis, which you referred to, they are truly in trouble in the U.S., but I think too many people are projecting that on to Canada, where the situation is very different. In the U.S., banks tend to "securitize" their mortgages. That is, they package them and sell them to others, rather than holding them. That worked well, until it all hit the fan about a year ago. These days, almost no one wants to buy that paper, even at a discount. Therefore the banks won't lend, in many cases, even to people with good credit and substantial down payments, because they don't have the means of financing new lending.

None of that is happening in Canada. Canadian banks are still lending, and interest rates are still at historically pretty low levels. People are becoming overly discouraged, without good reason.
 
Observer Walt said:
Predictions by most knowledgeable real estate people, including CMHC and economics departments at a couple of the major banks, are not pointing toward a decrease in values in the Toronto market this year. Prices are still increasing, at a rate of about 2 - 3% year-over-year. My prediction for whatever it is worth is that this will prove to be the story for the entire year.

As for the credit crisis, which you referred to, they are truly in trouble in the U.S., but I think too many people are projecting that on to Canada, where the situation is very different. In the U.S., banks tend to "securitize" their mortgages. That is, they package them and sell them to others, rather than holding them. That worked well, until it all hit the fan about a year ago. These days, almost no one wants to buy that paper, even at a discount. Therefore the banks won't lend, in many cases, even to people with good credit and substantial down payments, because they don't have the means of financing new lending.

QUOTE]

it's the same practice in canada but not as "innovative".
Click to expand...
 
Although behind the scenes, banks on Bay St are firing and terminating thousands of employees.... I expect a major recession as more white collar jobs are eliminated. It's "secret" for now....
Click to expand...

Really? Thousands of employees are being let go and we're not hearing about it down here, huh? Funny - several friends and relatives work in big banks just around the corner from me on Bay. No one terminated yet. In fact, two I know have just been bumped up from contract to full-time. Sure, that's anecdotal, but I've gotta think that if the sky was falling on Bay, we'd hear at least a whisper of it.
 
Urban Newbie said:
Really? Thousands of employees are being let go and we're not hearing about it down here, huh? Funny - several friends and relatives work in big banks just around the corner from me on Bay. No one terminated yet. In fact, two I know have just been bumped up from contract to full-time. Sure, that's anecdotal, but I've gotta think that if the sky was falling on Bay, we'd hear at least a whisper of it.
Click to expand...

Often, by the time 'we' hear about it, the ship has already left the dock, so to speak. Canadian banks (particularly CIBC) have taken significant write downs on their American portfolios. This is bound to have some spill over into the Canadian market and banks at jobs.
Retail sales are very soft in Toronto just now. Tourism is down. There's a piece in the Post today about movie shoots in Toronto being down. There could be some negative effects on the real estate market. Wouldn't it be nice to know ahead of the curve? By the time the papers report it, it's too late.
The trouble with analysts is that whether the news is good or bad, it can often become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
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