^I read kEiThZ' post as questioning if bus users would fill up all those HFR seats if the fare on the train was double the bus fare...not double what VIA is already charging....I could have it wrong though.
Oh, good point.
My view, is in that case, a % of bus users will keep using the bus, and a % will shift to the train, given 2.5 hours versus 8 hours.
Bus service decreases, train increases.
It will capture a percentage -- what percentage is unknown -- it's noted one can save enough time that the same time -- 5.5 hours more working time on a minimum-wage job more than pays for a VIA HFR sale fare. It's a day you no longer need to take off.
I suspect it will pull a lot more new users formerly driving, than new users formerly using greyhound. But you will pull from both. For a solo traveller, it's already cheaper to travel by VIA Tuesday Fare than to drive a car to Ottawa if you don't need the car while in Ottawa.
If the time equation is thrown in, it becomes a no brainer for a lot more who are within convenient transit (given Ottawa/Toronto's transit projects going on). It starts to even finally economically make sense for a small family of parents who no longer both need to take a day off, and the extra worktime of 2 parents (contractors, temp, part time -- about half of workers have no vacation days/pay), the extra day of work for a low income family without a car (with work flexibility) pays for themselves AND the train fares of a couple of kids, even, to allow them an off-season Ottawa weekend vacation/relatives visit consisting of a full Saturday and practically a full Sunday. And for the richer families that already fly an Ottawa-Toronto hop, they'll now consider the train instead too with the core-to-core speed.
It won't attract everyone, but it will be quite across-the-spectrum if the price is right. Tourists, daily commuters, air travellers, business, solo, families, students, low income, high income, bus users, car drivers, etc. Some ridership attracted across the board from every market. In other words, a massive rail ridership increase, at the right pricing.