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Thank you very much, I truly appreciate your honest feedback and the answer to both of your questions is “Yes, of course!”, which is why I have removed the entire passage, so that it doesn’t cause more unnecessary offence or upset to anyone. I really have to go back to bed, but I will reflect on my original comments over this weekend...
I was referring to Montreal-Toronto. That VIA has could have higher ridership on the Ottawa-Toronto route, despite the greater demand (for all modes) from Montreal-Toronto says everything!
Ecotrain Study, Deliverable 7 (Demand Forecasting)
Flights? The modal shift leaned towards cars the last time I looked at the data (I haven't digested the EcoTrain study yet). And in-depth origin-destination studies includes factors such as trip-purpose, age, demographics, etc. What I kept thinking they should add to the model is language - as the stuff I saw always seemed to have more troubles with stuff like Quebec City to Toronto and even Quebec City to Ottawa, where the models suggested that demand should be higher than it was.
I try to be as positive as possible about the project when I discuss it. It would be a big quality of life improvement for a lot of people I know (and myself). I hope you all do the same!
Also, call your MPs and the Minister of Transport
Yeah, the Winchester Sub can be the shortcut east of Smiths Falls. I think it was discussed in this thread at some point last year.I agree with you that the the vast majority of those traveling along the TOM corridor do so by car. I only brought up flights proactively counter the argument that there are more Toronto-Montreal flights than Toronto-Ottawa flights so demand must be higher, I also haven't had a close look at the EchoTrain study, but I do know that a few years after it, VIA started to boost the frequency of service on the Ottawa-Montreal corridor.
As completely different routes, I can't see that ever happening, but if you look at the shortest practical route between Toronto and Montreal (while skirting around Lake Ontario or the St. Laurence river), plus connections to Ottawa and Kingston, you get something like this:
View attachment 302610
Overlaying that with the HFR options and track VIA owns, you get this:
View attachment 302611
As you can see, other than the diversion to Ottawa, the route isn't that far off of the shortest practical route.
Eventually, if/when demand gets to the point where they can decouple the Toronto-Montreal trains from the Toronto-Ottawa and Ottawa-Montreal trains (without loosing frequency), they could build a shortcut. This would allow most of the track to be shared. This would not be desirable from day 1 though, as coupling the three routes creates a huge boost in frequency (the F in HFR).
Indeed, in July 2020, see my Post #7030:
[...]
If we now take the assumed hourly HFR service and deviate half of the services over the Bypass around Ottawa, our travel time between Toronto and Montreal decreases by the 15 minutes suggested by @innsertnamehere, which may increase of the passenger volume between of 5.1%. However, the resulting doubling of the headway offered between Toronto&Ottawa and between Ottawa&Montreal, may decrease the passenger volumes of these markets by 8.6% and 13.1%, respectively, thus resulting in an overall drop of passenger volume by 4.3%:
Now, one might argue that the Express trains should be offered in addition to hourly service, but since that extra train could just as well operate via Ottawa (thus doubling the frequency offered for all three markets), we have to compare this scenario with half-hourly service on the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal corridor and this results very similar results, with bypassing Ottawa for a 15 minute travel time saving may increase passenger volume between Toronto and Montreal by 4.9%, but may decrease that between Toronto&Ottawa and between Ottawa&Montreal by 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively, thus resulting in an overall drop of passenger volume by 1.4%:
[...]
And all of the above is without considering that adding the Ottawa bypass adds 146 km (From De Beaujeu to Smiths Falls via CP's Winchester Sub) to the HFR network length (ignoring the Montreal-Quebec branch), thus increasing the length of ROW to be built or upgraded (which is a major cost driver for capital costs) by one-quarter and that adding an hourly Express train to hourly Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal trains would almost double train-mileage (which is a major cost driver for operating costs):
[...]
Not a big surprise, as (according to your post) it only reduced Montreal-Toronto travel times from 4.75 hours to 4.5 hours.
That is what I like about HFR... it is a first step on which everything else can be built. Smooth out a curve here, put in a grade separation there, double track a stretch, electrify a stretch for greater acceleration and utilize EDMUs, etc... every investment has some level of benefit returned. Sharing tracks and having lower priority isn't something that can be built on.
