Why Ontario will operate high-speed GO commuter service, London-Kitchener-Ontario
a.k.a. forcing VIA to go over Metrolinx-owned track to London
a.k.a. why VIA slammed a flag in London for their western Ontario hub
(For new readers not believing in GO HSR)
exhibit 1: Rail Happy Ontario [cue background sound of a football stadium full of cheerleeders]
exhibit 2: $13.5 billion Ontario-only GO expansion (GO RER),
massively out-funding VIA Canada-wide
exhibit 3: Ontario High Speed Rail feasibility assessment
currently under way
exhibit 4: Ontario Liberals have already
talked about $10 fares for commuter high speed rail for frequent commuters
exhibit 5: Mostly commendable track record of actual shovels happening (ECLRT, UPX, Union Revitalization, Lakeshore AD2W 30-min, Georgetown Corridor), mostly guilty of delay and somewhat tolerable cost overrun, rather than cancellation, with (based on whole-picture) not too many broken promises except when forced by others (e.g. Ford).
exhibit 6: Since it rebranding, Metrolinx has grown gangbusters as the catchall for all Ontario-based rail services (UPX, ECLRT, GO, etc). Intra-Ontario HSR will be a Metrolinx commuter service, possibly as a subsequent 10-year megaplan GO RER II 2025-2035 when the initial GO RER buildout is mostly finished.
exhibit 7: London-Kitchener-Toronto becomes within a daily commute of each other (London only 70 minutes from Toronto), growing taxpayer base, especially with people permanently priced out of Toronto's housing market (even taking into account of a future 25% housing market correction). By 2035 opening date, twenty years of population expansion from now, Ontario potentially profits from HSR, with full farebox recovery and more taxpayers.
See? I am even willing to put money on this, at approximately 1-to-4 odds (25% chance Metrolinx high speed rail will be announced by end of 2020s, and built by end of 2030s). I think 1-to-2 odds, but I'm leaning on the safe side. We may have to survive a cycle through a few different goverments, but provided Ontario economy improves and they find unorthodox ways to fund things without bankrupting us (I don't like the sale of Hydro One, but I love the GO RER expansion enough that many people will think Liberals is the lesser poison during some future election cycle, as an example), continued 10-year GO megaprojects creates de-facto GO highspeed at far better-than-10% gambling chance. Many Ontarioians will become addicted to ION, ECLRT, UPX, GO RER, and if at least most of these are delivered eventually (e.g. GO RER by ~2029, after several year delays and a few relatively minor broken promises), and provided we end up being in better financial shape by then, then people are possibly going to eventually vote back in an Ontario government that begins shovels for HSR to London. And it may not even involve a single dollar of feds funding, and when announced, it may end up being a prize awarded to Metrolinx rather than VIA.
Hello, GO high speed commuter trains.
This
IS going to indirectly compete with VIA usage of the London-Kitchener-Toronto route, and VIA CEO knows all the above, very clearly. Does VIA CEO want to take the risk of being left out of all valuable Ontario rail west of Oshawa? Nope.
VIA has slammed a flag in London, I bet,
partly because of all the above. This may help win fed funding (good for us) say in compatible high speed rail, such as co-funded high-speed-rail and guaranteed high-speed-corridor-sharing (VIA Windsor-QC intercity service and Metrolinx highspeed commuter London-Kitchener-Toronto, much like in Europe where Eurostar international highspeed sharing with France TGV domestic highspeed). Regardless of what happens, if high speed happen then there are very huge odds are Metrolinx high speed trains will run somewhere in the province before VIA high speed trains runs somewhere else in the province, much like TGV trains started running before Eurostar trains did (on TGV track). The next 20 years will be very interesting for Ontario rail watchers, this is only a beginning.