[Allandale25]

Le TGV Montréal-Québec en voie de dérailler?

Des tractations en haut lieu à Ottawa pourraient compromettre le projet de train rapide entre Montréal et Québec.

www.journaldemontreal.com

This means HFR is all but dead. RIP. Is everyone ready for another 5 years of studies?

This appears to be the news on the HFR proposal that VIA submitted at the end of December:

"In January, the project office set up jointly by VIA and BIC to refine the TGF [HFR] submitted its analysis to the new Minister of Transport, Omar Alghabra." (emphasis added)

So no, I don't think the article means HFR is dead yet. We'd need to see something more concrete.

 

[kEiThZ]

Le TGV Montréal-Québec en voie de dérailler?

Des tractations en haut lieu à Ottawa pourraient compromettre le projet de train rapide entre Montréal et Québec.

www.journaldemontreal.com

This means HFR is all but dead. RIP. Is everyone ready for another 5 years of studies?

This is actually quite reassuring to me. This means they are all motivated to build something. And they are actually discussing rail infrastructure behind the scenes.

The HSR boosters will eventually lose to political and economic reality. I'm now cautiously optimistic about the budget.

Aside from the whole matter of pissing off an entire province the Liberals need, with an HSR proposal, cancelling HFR now would crush the credibility of the CIB. They at least have some plausible deniability on political independence right now. If the government trashes tens of millions of dollars of engineering work and analysis and orders them to build whatever, that will be the end of the institution.

Also, this quote from the article is really interesting:

In January, the project office set up jointly by VIA and BIC to refine the TGF submitted its analysis to the new Minister of Transport, Omar Alghabra.

According to our information, the document favors an improved version of the TGF over the first version of the project and a TGV. Ottawa has injected $ 71 million into this work.

This is exactly what I've been advocating for. There's scope for upgraded HFR that is true High Performance/Higher Speed Rail.

 

[MisterF]

"the document favors an improved version of the TGF over the first version of the project and a TGV" caught my eye too. Maybe they determined that for a bit more money they can rebuild certain sections of the line to higher speed standard while keeping the more challenging sections slower. Could it be that this has taken so long because they saw an opportunity to take the original HFR concept and improve on it?

Le TGV Montréal-Québec en voie de dérailler?

Des tractations en haut lieu à Ottawa pourraient compromettre le projet de train rapide entre Montréal et Québec.

www.journaldemontreal.com

This means HFR is all but dead. RIP. Is everyone ready for another 5 years of studies?

Is it just me or do your posts consist mostly of proclaiming the death of HFR?

 

[Allandale25]

"the document favors an improved version of the TGF over the first version of the project and a TGV" caught my eye too. Maybe they determined that for a bit more money they can rebuild certain sections of the line to higher speed standard while keeping the more challenging sections slower. Could it be that this has taken so long because they saw an opportunity to take the original HFR concept and improve on it?

That's what I'm thinking as well. The article really doesn't detail the corridor aspects of HFR vs HSR between Toronto-Montreal. For HSR if we assume the CN lakeshore route is used, sure the government can say they'll spend a lot of money but there could be significant opposition between Scarboro and Durham Junctions by local residents to add HSR tracks. Unless the HSR proponents want to see co-running with GO and HSR at slower speeds? Or tunnel the entire stretch? There are other pinch points along the CN lakeshore route as well. Also, as has been discussed many, many times here and which HSR Canada never acknowledges, dealing with CN in general for the entire HSR Toronto-Montreal Corridor (and close to Toronto, Metrolinx).

 

[nfitz]

Could it be that this has taken so long because they saw an opportunity to take the original HFR concept and improve on it?

Perhaps it's taken so long because there was so much to improve on!

In general, there's nothing wrong with the concept of having HFR (and west of Toronto too). It's all about how you do it. If they could improve on what they originally proposed, then I'd happily jump up and down supporting it!

For HSR if we assume the CN lakeshore route is used, sure the government can say they'll spend a lot of money but there could be significant opposition between Scarboro and Durham Junctions by local residents to add HSR tracks ...

This could explain the real reason that Metrolinx is moving the Ontario subway line so that it's all to the north of the existing tracks, leaving space on the south for future HSR tracks - and leaving it up to the feds to expropriate community centres ... might explain a lot. Though I'm quickly heading into conspiracy theory nuttery here.

Someone should FOIA the VIA and Transport Canada submissions to Metrolinx for the Ontario Line.

 

[SFO-YYZ]

Le TGV Montréal-Québec en voie de dérailler?

Des tractations en haut lieu à Ottawa pourraient compromettre le projet de train rapide entre Montréal et Québec.

www.journaldemontreal.com

This means HFR is all but dead. RIP. Is everyone ready for another 5 years of studies?

Read the article, but I honestly did not see any firm indication anywhere in the article that "HFR is dead". Stop sensationalizing the issue and making blanket statements that are nothing more than your personal opinions.

 

[crs1026]

"the document favors an improved version of the TGF over the first version of the project and a TGV" caught my eye too. Maybe they determined that for a bit more money they can rebuild certain sections of the line to higher speed standard while keeping the more challenging sections slower. Could it be that this has taken so long because they saw an opportunity to take the original HFR concept and improve on it?

It's certainly possible that the powers-that-be are mulling fast-forwarding to include some of the future investment that was considered but deferred to a HFR "Phase 2". Perhaps the government has seen its way to increase the total envelope beyond what the CIB can justify on the basis of initial business risk, in the interest of a more saleable product. If so, then good on them - an even better end product would be a good thing.

Since 90% of so-called "leaks" are deliberate political ploys to pre-soak ideas with the public, I'm quick to consider the conspiracy theory side of this. But that's too much speculation, and nothing gained by going there.

It's very hard to convince myself that this is government moving forward to a simple 'yes' on VIA's proposal. But I'm not hearing a simple 'no' either.... it may well just be the inevitable political reckoning getting played out. Time will tell.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

^ It would also be nice while they were at HFR/HSR or whatever they were doing if they could pass a VIA Rail Act instead of it existing as just an Order in Council (I believe). It might not make that big of of a difference, but Amtrak has its own Act.

 

[kEiThZ]

"the document favors an improved version of the TGF over the first version of the project and a TGV" caught my eye too. Maybe they determined that for a bit more money they can rebuild certain sections of the line to higher speed standard while keeping the more challenging sections slower. Could it be that this has taken so long because they saw an opportunity to take the original HFR concept and improve on it?

I hope.

I've long said that upgrading the Ottawa-Coteau portion has real benefits. If they could get Ottawa-Montreal down to 1:15 hrs, it can becomes a more unified corridor/conurbation akin to Kitchener-Toronto.

The way I see it, they can get Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal to 4 hrs with Toronto-Peterborough at 1 hr and Ottawa-Montreal at 1:15 hrs. That creates two ex-urban commuting markets, while making Toronto-Ottawa competitive with air at under 3 hrs, and absolutely competitive with driving for Toronto-Montreal.

If I had to just wag it, I'd argue that a 75% increase in the $2B previously budgeted for Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal would probably be enough. Works out to ballpark $6M/km. Add in a billion for rolling stock and $1.5B for Montreal-Quebec, and we're looking at $6B projected. That is expensive, but not high enough to be objectionable to Liberal MPs who want something for their own riding. Or voters elsewhere in the country (especially if the announce the Toronto-Windsor and Calgary-Edmonton studies at the same time).

 

[Allandale25]

^ For some reason I thought it was $6B for the Toronto-Peterborough-Ottawa-Montreal portion, and $8B if electrified.

 

[p_xavier]

Sabia knows that money is being made with private tracks and lower operating costs. HSR makes sense since it reduces operating costs by nearly half for the trip due to speed and will probably have higher priced tickets. So even with a triple the price HSR project, you can make it work with more efficient operating costs. He basically applies the REM to VIA Rail (if it's still VIA that would run the service). People are too attached to infrastructure costs. He is definitely not.

 

[Darwinkgo]

Sabia knows that money is being made with private tracks and lower operating costs. HSR makes sense since it reduces operating costs by nearly half for the trip due to speed and will probably have higher priced tickets. So even with a triple the price HSR project, you can make it work with more efficient operating costs. He basically applies the REM to VIA Rail (if it's still VIA that would run the service). People are too attached to infrastructure costs. He is definitely not.

It is possible. The JPO should have at least costed that as well as a screen.

 

[kEiThZ]

I would argue that HFR has better ROI, both economically and politically. The $200-300 tickets for HSR would substantially limit the customer base. Not to mention the backlash from spending that much in just Ontario and Quebec and still ending up with high fares, and skipping Ottawa as Sabia apparently wants.

There is probably a sweet spot between the original HFR proposal and HSR, where some portions are upgraded, such that the overall design allows for a travel time which draws the most passengers at a still reasonable fare, with paths to upgrade in the future. And if article is true, it is possible that the JPO has recommended something like this.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ For some reason I thought it was $6B for the Toronto-Peterborough-Ottawa-Montreal portion, and $8B if electrified.

Last I read it was $4B. $2B for TOM. $1B for rolling stock. $1B for MQ.

 

[Darwinkgo]

Not to mention the backlash from spending that much in just Ontario and Quebec and still ending up with high fares.

But it could be less public money as subsidy even with spending more. We don't know. In Alberta it would be less. With the geology of Ontario - I doubt it would be less.

But you can also see the case: maybe you up your subsidy from $2 billion to $4 billion, but that ups spending from $6 billion to $18 billion. Which option do you choose?