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Imagine saying "this boat is full!" as some immigrant living in the 6th-least-densely populated country on this planet.

A big part of our struggle to invest into the infrastructure we need is that we lack the density in most of this country. We just have to incite more of them to live in areas outside of the Greater Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver Areas, but the places with the least immigration are often the hardest to convince of the opportunities it offers, even though they would benefit most...
 
Imagine saying "this boat is full!" as some immigrant living in the 6th-least-densely populated country on this planet.

A big part of our struggle to invest into the infrastructure we need is that we lack the density in most of this country. We just have to incite more of them to live in areas outside of the Greater Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver Areas, but the places with the least immigration are often the hardest to convince of the opportunities it offers, even though they would benefit most...

I think one has to step back.

Homelessness has tripled in Toronto in only 10 years.

Average unit size in new builds is declining to below that of units in Europe that were once lauded as reasonable in size.

Standard of living is under assault as wages stagnate, particularly for those in low and lower-middle income professions; while productivity investment lags, in part because of artificially goosed cheap labour supply.

Most of that supply is not from the high-skill, legal immigration channel that always gets the attention; its from the foreign student channel and the TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker) channel; and collectively, they boost the immigration number to more than 860,000 this year, which is daunting growth with which the development industry cannot keep pace; and there is no forseeable way in which it will be able to in the near term. Key here, we're not talking about exceeding said pace which is what is required to drive prices/rents down.

I think an anti-immigration view in that context, while overly simplistic, perhaps ill-informed and unfortunate regardless, is entirely predictable.

Someone making a six figure income can be very challenged to relate to what's happening to many people out there. Imagine being single and earning, not minimum wage, but double that, or about 60k per year.
Ten years ago that got you a very good apartment in Toronto in a decent location, with room to devote some money to retirement and/or travel or the like.
Today, if you have to seek out new housing, you might find yourself at the edge of needing a food bank at that income level; that is well and truly insane. Now remember the many workers getting by on 1/2 that.

*****

As for shifting immigrants to locations outside of Toronto and Vancouver; TFWs go where employers seek them out; foreign students go where colleges make spots available and advertise in given jurisdictions; and there are a lot of foreign students outside of big cities (albeit far fewer in absolute terms and somewhat less in percentage terms). Lakehead University in Thunder Bay is 10% foreign students. (for Comparison, U of T is 25% foreign students.........Harvard is 12.5%)

But Thunder Bay's retention rate for those grads is quite low; that has a great deal to do with employment opportunities; though there are other factors at play as well.

But homelessness is also on the rise in Thunder Bay.

The idea that Canada can or should attempt to permit immigration at 2% of population per year, which no other OECD country is attempting is just wrong.
At 1% we have a workable level of growth, but not at 2%.

****

Also, we really need to stop using the overall all density stats as if they had any meaning.

27% of Canada is literally north of the treeline. Zero Trees. Most people have no desire to live in such a harsh and unwelcoming climate.

Yes, Canada has room to grow; though this is deceptive, because most of the easy growth will come at the expense of top tier farmland which feeds not only Canadians, but the world.
Its a gross over simplification to look at density for the entire country and to fail to consider that you can't even reach 1/2 of the country by year round road.

PS. if you did build out to European densities in Canada you would vastly accelerate climate change, global displacement, food shortages, and cause substantial deterioration of air and water quality.


****

I'm pro immigration and pro development; but we need to get a handle on using statistics properly, presenting them in useful context and understanding real-world impacts of policy choices.
 
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Imagine saying "this boat is full!" as some immigrant living in the 6th-least-densely populated country on this planet.

A big part of our struggle to invest into the infrastructure we need is that we lack the density in most of this country. We just have to incite more of them to live in areas outside of the Greater Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver Areas, but the places with the least immigration are often the hardest to convince of the opportunities it offers, even though they would benefit most...

Agreed, doesn't make sense.

And I don't think we need to entice anyone to live away from the big metro areas. We just need to rethink how we build housing. Toronto, the city proper, should be able to house 6 million people by itself, let alone the surrounding region.
 
I think one has to step back.

Homelessness has tripled in Toronto in only 10 years.

Average unit size in new builds is declining to below that of units in Europe that were once lauded as reasonable in size.

Standard of living is under assault as wages stagnate, particularly for those in low and lower-middle income professions; while productivity investment lags, in part because of artificially goosed cheap labour supply.

Most of that supply is not from the high-skill, legal immigration channel that always gets the attention; its from the foreign student channel and the TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker) channel; and collectively, they boost the immigration number to more than 860,000 this year, which is daunting growth with which the development industry cannot keep pace; and there is no forseeable way in which it will be able to in the near term. Key here, we're not talking about exceeding said pace which is what is required to drive prices/rents down.

I think an anti-immigration view in that context, while overly simplistic, perhaps ill-informed and unfortunate regardless, is entirely predictable.
People will blame immigration because it’s inconceivable for them to see the failures of capitalism you’ve listed above.
 
I think one has to step back.

Homelessness has tripled in Toronto in only 10 years.

Average unit size in new builds is declining to below that of units in Europe that were once lauded as reasonable in size.

Standard of living is under assault as wages stagnate, particularly for those in low and lower-middle income professions; while productivity investment lags, in part because of artificially goosed cheap labour supply.

Most of that supply is not from the high-skill, legal immigration channel that always gets the attention; its from the foreign student channel and the TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker) channel; and collectively, they boost the immigration number to more than 860,000 this year, which is daunting growth with which the development industry cannot keep pace; and there is no forseeable way in which it will be able to in the near term. Key here, we're not talking about exceeding said pace which is what is required to drive prices/rents down.

I think an anti-immigration view in that context, while overly simplistic, perhaps ill-informed and unfortunate regardless, is entirely predictable.

Someone making a six figure income can be very challenged to relate to what's happening to many people out there. Imagine being single and earning, not minimum wage, but double that, or about 60k per year.
Ten years ago that got you a very good apartment in Toronto in a decent location, with room to devote some money to retirement and/or travel or the like.
Today, if you have to seek out new housing, you might find yourself at the edge of needing a food bank at that income level; that is well and truly insane. Now remember the many workers getting by on 1/2 that.

*****

As for shifting immigrants to locations outside of Toronto and Vancouver; TFWs go where employers seek them out; foreign students go where colleges make spots available and advertise in given jurisdictions; and there are a lot of foreign students outside of big cities (albeit far fewer in absolute terms and somewhat less in percentage terms). Lakehead University in Thunder Bay is 10% foreign students. (for Comparison, U of T is 25% foreign students.........Harvard is 12.5%)

But Thunder Bay's retention rate for those grads is quite low; that has a great deal to do with employment opportunities; though there are other factors at play as well.

But homelessness is also on the rise in Thunder Bay.

The idea that Canada can or should attempt to permit immigration at 2% of population per year, which no other OECD country is attempting is just wrong.
At 1% we have a workable level of growth, but not at 2%.

****

Also, we really need to stop using the overall all density stats as if they had any meaning.

27% of Canada is literally north of the treeline. Zero Trees. Most people have no desire to live in such a harsh and unwelcoming climate.

Yes, Canada has room to grow; though this is deceptive, because most of the easy growth will come at the expense of top tier farmland which feeds not only Canadians, but the world.
Its a gross over simplification to look at density for the entire country and to fail to consider that you can't even reach 1/2 of the country by year round road.

PS. if you did build out to European densities in Canada you would vastly accelerate climate change, global displacement, food shortages, and cause substantial deterioration of air and water quality.


****

I'm pro immigration and pro development; but we need to get a handle on using statistic properly, presenting them in useful context and understanding real-world impacts of policy choices.

I agree with you on where the sentiment develops from. In fact, many other friends who do earn 6 figure incomes are also worried about immigration, since 6 figures is a struggle for someone looking to buy a house to raise a family in Toronto.

There is definitely a mismatch in policies which are creating this conflict. On one-hand, we are encouraging immigration, but, with the other, our governments seem completely inept at building the right type and amount of housing necessary.

One thing I'm not sure is, why do you think building out to European densities would accelerate climate change. My understanding is that people in higher density communities have a smaller carbon footprint than the alternative. I think it's pretty much the only achievable way to support more people coming in.
 
I think one has to step back.

Homelessness has tripled in Toronto in only 10 years.

Average unit size in new builds is declining to below that of units in Europe that were once lauded as reasonable in size.

Standard of living is under assault as wages stagnate, particularly for those in low and lower-middle income professions; while productivity investment lags, in part because of artificially goosed cheap labour supply.

Most of that supply is not from the high-skill, legal immigration channel that always gets the attention; its from the foreign student channel and the TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker) channel; and collectively, they boost the immigration number to more than 860,000 this year, which is daunting growth with which the development industry cannot keep pace; and there is no forseeable way in which it will be able to in the near term. Key here, we're not talking about exceeding said pace which is what is required to drive prices/rents down.

I think an anti-immigration view in that context, while overly simplistic, perhaps ill-informed and unfortunate regardless, is entirely predictable.

Someone making a six figure income can be very challenged to relate to what's happening to many people out there. Imagine being single and earning, not minimum wage, but double that, or about 60k per year.
Ten years ago that got you a very good apartment in Toronto in a decent location, with room to devote some money to retirement and/or travel or the like.
Today, if you have to seek out new housing, you might find yourself at the edge of needing a food bank at that income level; that is well and truly insane. Now remember the many workers getting by on 1/2 that.

*****

As for shifting immigrants to locations outside of Toronto and Vancouver; TFWs go where employers seek them out; foreign students go where colleges make spots available and advertise in given jurisdictions; and there are a lot of foreign students outside of big cities (albeit far fewer in absolute terms and somewhat less in percentage terms). Lakehead University in Thunder Bay is 10% foreign students. (for Comparison, U of T is 25% foreign students.........Harvard is 12.5%)

But Thunder Bay's retention rate for those grads is quite low; that has a great deal to do with employment opportunities; though there are other factors at play as well.

But homelessness is also on the rise in Thunder Bay.

The idea that Canada can or should attempt to permit immigration at 2% of population per year, which no other OECD country is attempting is just wrong.
At 1% we have a workable level of growth, but not at 2%.

****

Also, we really need to stop using the overall all density stats as if they had any meaning.

27% of Canada is literally north of the treeline. Zero Trees. Most people have no desire to live in such a harsh and unwelcoming climate.

Yes, Canada has room to grow; though this is deceptive, because most of the easy growth will come at the expense of top tier farmland which feeds not only Canadians, but the world.
Its a gross over simplification to look at density for the entire country and to fail to consider that you can't even reach 1/2 of the country by year round road.

PS. if you did build out to European densities in Canada you would vastly accelerate climate change, global displacement, food shortages, and cause substantial deterioration of air and water quality.


****

I'm pro immigration and pro development; but we need to get a handle on using statistic properly, presenting them in useful context and understanding real-world impacts of policy choices.
Agree with NL 100%. And his last paragraph is right on the button. Having these discussions without a true understanding of the underlying stats and how they are used is often pointless.

Homelessness is a huge problem, a ‘living wage’ in the city is a real challenge for all. Blaming all of this on capitalism is a crock. Where would you rather be? Here or Russia? Here or China? Here or Iran? But society needs to drive capitalism in better directions. And that requires political action, or will power by the greater voting ( and largely not participating) public. Are you happy with Justin? The man who dithers over anything? And PP? A potential walking disaster of epic proportions. And who else is there? If we are prepared to settle for, and accept mediocrity (Doug Ford anyone?) who can we blame for these problems, and others, as these issues wallow and wallow and fester and putrefy endlessly with out any sort of progressive resolution.

So we get programs like the Canadian Housing Benefit program which is a ONE time top up of $500 for those whose income was less than $20K per individual of $35K per family, and their rent was at least 30% of your budget. This is the best we can do? Seriously?

I’m in Montreal again, it’s snowing outside, and time for a walk. Thanks NL, always enjoy reading your posts.
 
Blaming all of this on capitalism is a crock. Where would you rather be? Here or Russia? Here or China? Here or Iran? But society needs to drive capitalism in better directions.
Case in point. People getting so defensive at the slightest critique of the current capitalist system. At least in the end you still understand the status quo is not working.
 
There is definitely a mismatch in policies which are creating this conflict. On one-hand, we are encouraging immigration, but, with the other, our governments seem completely inept at building the right type and amount of housing necessary.

While there are absolutely radical policy shifts that could and should happen ( to pick one, eliminating subsidies for REITs to buy existing rental stock with, courtesy CMHC; and instead offer loans at Prime for the construction of new purpose-built rental)

The overall number of new units can't change much in the near term; the industry has shortages of construction workers, planners, architects, etc etc; and there are also supply chain constraints for equipment and materials.

Its important to be clear that there are zero policy options to double the amount of housing being built each year, at any price point, and that will remain true for the next several years. Hence, while I'm pro immigration, I'm also pro less of it in the near-term, until the industry is capable of meeting demand.

One thing I'm not sure is, why do you think building out to European densities would accelerate climate change.

Important point here, I was specifically countering a reference to density for the entire country.

So, if Canada had the population density of France (119 per km2) we would have a national population of 1.2 Billion people.

That could only be achieved by mowing down vast chunks of the boreal forest and wiping out 25% of all the farmland in Canada.

My understanding is that people in higher density communities have a smaller carbon footprint than the alternative.

Sure; but more people equal a higher total carbon footprint.

Per capita numbers are only part of the equation.

Also, lets remember.......

Population Density:

Berlin: 4,227 per km2
Toronto: 4,227 per km2

Yup, exactly the same. The idea that Toronto isn't moderately dense is weird. Its conflates lower density sprawl areas to numbers for the City as a whole. But Toronto has vastly more towers of high density than any European City.

When you blend those together, Toronto is already very dense. That is not an argument against building more density relative to sprawl; that's a given. Its just important to consider where we're already at.

Yes, Paris, France is much denser, I would also argue that the quality of life in Paris suffers for that, particularly beyond the Peripherique; but Paris is the anomaly.

I think it's pretty much the only achievable way to support more people coming in.

Right, which again begs the question how many should be coming in; to Toronto or Vancouver, right now? I would argue less.

That's not an argument for no immigration or even low immigration; just the same level we had 5 years ago; and then we can consider increases as we catch up on housing and infrastructure.
 
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Case in point. People getting so defensive at the slightest critique of the current capitalist system. At least in the end you still understand the status quo is not working.
Capitalism in and of itself isn't the problem. The advanced European and Asian economies that have effective rail systems and affordable housing are also capitalist. Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
 
Capitalism in and of itself isn't the problem. Many European and Asian countries that have kept housing costs under control are also capitalist. Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I never said it was. But the things Northern Light pointed out are clearly failures. These things can be addressed while still maintaining a capitalist economy. Like you said, there are other countries with better standards of living we can look to.
 
I never said it was. But the things Northern Light pointed out are clearly failures. These things can be addressed while still maintaining a capitalist economy. Like you said, there are other countries with better standards of living we can look to.
We are way, way off topic here, and at the risk of broadening the discussion, I would qualify the words “ standard of living” and what that means from country to country? And I completely accept the point that there are and we should be looking at other countries “standards” and how they can relate to Canadian societies both urban and rural. We all have much that can be learned.

Perhaps we should be taking this to a different thread.
 
Back in topic, when will trainset 2 enter service? And how much longer will we need buffer cars given what we know now?
 
I think one has to step back.

Homelessness has tripled in Toronto in only 10 years.

Average unit size in new builds is declining to below that of units in Europe that were once lauded as reasonable in size.

Standard of living is under assault as wages stagnate, particularly for those in low and lower-middle income professions; while productivity investment lags, in part because of artificially goosed cheap labour supply.

Most of that supply is not from the high-skill, legal immigration channel that always gets the attention; its from the foreign student channel and the TFW (Temporary Foreign Worker) channel; and collectively, they boost the immigration number to more than 860,000 this year, which is daunting growth with which the development industry cannot keep pace; and there is no forseeable way in which it will be able to in the near term. Key here, we're not talking about exceeding said pace which is what is required to drive prices/rents down.

I think an anti-immigration view in that context, while overly simplistic, perhaps ill-informed and unfortunate regardless, is entirely predictable.

Someone making a six figure income can be very challenged to relate to what's happening to many people out there. Imagine being single and earning, not minimum wage, but double that, or about 60k per year.
Ten years ago that got you a very good apartment in Toronto in a decent location, with room to devote some money to retirement and/or travel or the like.
Today, if you have to seek out new housing, you might find yourself at the edge of needing a food bank at that income level; that is well and truly insane. Now remember the many workers getting by on 1/2 that.

*****

As for shifting immigrants to locations outside of Toronto and Vancouver; TFWs go where employers seek them out; foreign students go where colleges make spots available and advertise in given jurisdictions; and there are a lot of foreign students outside of big cities (albeit far fewer in absolute terms and somewhat less in percentage terms). Lakehead University in Thunder Bay is 10% foreign students. (for Comparison, U of T is 25% foreign students.........Harvard is 12.5%)

But Thunder Bay's retention rate for those grads is quite low; that has a great deal to do with employment opportunities; though there are other factors at play as well.

But homelessness is also on the rise in Thunder Bay.

The idea that Canada can or should attempt to permit immigration at 2% of population per year, which no other OECD country is attempting is just wrong.
At 1% we have a workable level of growth, but not at 2%.

****

Also, we really need to stop using the overall all density stats as if they had any meaning.

27% of Canada is literally north of the treeline. Zero Trees. Most people have no desire to live in such a harsh and unwelcoming climate.

Yes, Canada has room to grow; though this is deceptive, because most of the easy growth will come at the expense of top tier farmland which feeds not only Canadians, but the world.
Its a gross over simplification to look at density for the entire country and to fail to consider that you can't even reach 1/2 of the country by year round road.

PS. if you did build out to European densities in Canada you would vastly accelerate climate change, global displacement, food shortages, and cause substantial deterioration of air and water quality.


****

I'm pro immigration and pro development; but we need to get a handle on using statistics properly, presenting them in useful context and understanding real-world impacts of policy choices.

I just want to note that I have shifted the continuing discussion of a portion of the above (the development industry's capacity to build to this thread):

 

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