[nfitz]

Last time VIA served Toronto-Sudbury, the travel time was 6:40h (7:15h Northbound) and I doubt it was ever much faster (it certainly wouldn't be with today's infrastructure!).

Also, it's 426 km (by rail), as 300 km would barely bring you past Barrie (292 km by road), and I don't know what sprawling urban population centres you've identified inbetween Barrie and Sudbury (Parry Sound fails to even achieve "Census Agglomeration" status with a mere 6k and Orillia [a CA with 33k] ripped out all its tracks 20 years ago)...

CP used to do it with The Canadian (train 11) in the daytime from Toronto to Sudbury in about 6 hours on the McTier subdivision, back in the 1970s. Looks like 5:55 northbound in 1967. Gosh, and 5:53 southbound in 1955! Slightly shorter at 418 km. The overnight runs were longer.

The schedules I'm looking at, the CN/VIA service in 1976, via Barrie and Oshawa, were overnight to Sudbury Junction. So over 7 hours. Back in 1967 (which seems to have the peak speed of many services there were still 3 trains a day (all through Barrie and to Sudbury Junction); northbound was 6:40 and southbound was 7 hours. Interestingly there's a southbound (but not a northbound (via the Bala subdivision - via Beaverton the schedule says) that does it in 6:45.

So CP might be faster. And actually serves Sudbury. Not no where else.

 

[micheal_can]

Daily no, but what if the services was 3-4 times a day? What if housing was so much cheaper and one could come to Toronto for office trips or medical / shopping 2x a week. It would make Sudbury a community that is an easy commute to Toronto.

My point is that it opens up more possibilities. Not just in Sudbury but places in between from Parry Sound to Orilia and so on. Better transportation options make places more liveable and attractive.

Why don’t people move to Sudbury now? Well it’s hard to get there and hard to travel from there and not many services there. It’s a sprawling small city and has poor links to the massive population centre 300km to its south.

This is just one example. Why don’t people move to Niagara? Same issue. It’s closer to the GTA but limited transportation options.

Trains unlock possibilities. I look at a country like Sweden. 10M people, yes much smaller but similar cool climate. Stockholm is only 1.5M people but their train services puts Canada to shame. You can live in a city like Uppsala (pop. 200K) and take a train to Stockholm that’s about 70km away. It takes 40-50mins and runs hourly. Compare this to Barrie and Toronto. Barrie is similar distance but has much slower and less frequent service. It limits development and ability to live there. Yes with the restoration of GO train to Barrie. South Barrie is booming.

If only VIA had expanded and provided more service to SW Ontario or even between Toronto and Ottawa/Montreal it would let more people live in smaller communities yet still enjoy reasonable access to big cities services.

The Canadian has become a relic and almost irrelevant except as a tourist train. It takes too long, gets delayed over 12 hours too often and the schedule does not make it realistic for any travel. Let's say it is on time. It leaves Capreol at 430 AM. You are not getting into Toronto till 2:30pm. I have a plan to go with it to Montreal. Well, one would think that mid day,there would be lots of trains. Nope. Two. You have the 68 and 668. They leave at 5pm and 6pm..Right now, still in BC, the train to Toronto is already 1 hour late. With a window of 2.5-3.5 hours,there is no way that the connecting is safe. Going the opposite way,there is no arrival in Toronto to make the 10am departure of the Canadian. Running twice a week works for no one.

 

[CapitalSeven]

The US is slightly smaller than us in area but has ten times the population. At least on both coasts, they don't have to deal with the concept of multiple hours between major population centres.

Actually not 10 times, less than 8.8 and dropping as our population grows faster. Everyone's automatic math of times ten is misleading.

 

[Urban Sky]

The Canadian has become a relic and almost irrelevant except as a tourist train. It takes too long, gets delayed over 12 hours too often and the schedule does not make it realistic for any travel. Let's say it is on time. It leaves Capreol at 430 AM. You are not getting into Toronto till 2:30pm. I have a plan to go with it to Montreal. Well, one would think that mid day,there would be lots of trains. Nope. Two. You have the 68 and 668. They leave at 5pm and 6pm..Right now, still in BC, the train to Toronto is already 1 hour late. With a window of 2.5-3.5 hours,there is no way that the connecting is safe. Going the opposite way,there is no arrival in Toronto to make the 10am departure of the Canadian. Running twice a week works for no one.

I hate to break this to you, but no amount of fudging in the frequency or timing of the Canadian’s schedule (nor the introduction of a daily or even multiple-times-per-day train service between Sudbury and Toronto) would make the train journey from Sudbury via Toronto to Montreal (a 300 km detour against driving or taking the bus) attractive for anyone else than hardcore railfans or retirees who don’t have to be economic about their vacation days…

 

[lenaitch]

Daily no, but what if the services was 3-4 times a day? What if housing was so much cheaper and one could come to Toronto for office trips or medical / shopping 2x a week. It would make Sudbury a community that is an easy commute to Toronto.

My point is that it opens up more possibilities. Not just in Sudbury but places in between from Parry Sound to Orilia and so on. Better transportation options make places more liveable and attractive.

Why don’t people move to Sudbury now? Well it’s hard to get there and hard to travel from there and not many services there. It’s a sprawling small city and has poor links to the massive population centre 300km to its south.

This is just one example. Why don’t people move to Niagara? Same issue. It’s closer to the GTA but limited transportation options.

Trains unlock possibilities. I look at a country like Sweden. 10M people, yes much smaller but similar cool climate. Stockholm is only 1.5M people but their train services puts Canada to shame. You can live in a city like Uppsala (pop. 200K) and take a train to Stockholm that’s about 70km away. It takes 40-50mins and runs hourly. Compare this to Barrie and Toronto. Barrie is similar distance but has much slower and less frequent service. It limits development and ability to live there. Yes with the restoration of GO train to Barrie. South Barrie is booming.

If only VIA had expanded and provided more service to SW Ontario or even between Toronto and Ottawa/Montreal it would let more people live in smaller communities yet still enjoy reasonable access to big cities services.

Well, according to their real estate board, the2023 average YTD selling price is $467K, so that box ticked.

Both Porter and AC offer several flights per day (so, Pearson and Island) - they take about an hour (I realize there are 'pluses' added on to that.)

I don't get out much, but where else in the world is 300km considered a "commute"? It was discussed somewhere else on this board, but there is a difference between commuter rail and inter-urban rail, but I don't know if there is a magic distance.

I think there are different demographics that come into play. Those who physically need to connect with the GTA on a halfways regular basis will have a challenge with any land-based transportation. If it for medical reasons, you have my sympathy; if it for employment or social reasons, make better choices.

I've mentioned this before, but there are people who live complete and fulfilling lives without ever going to Toronto or any large urban area.

 

[rbt]

Daily no, but what if the services was 3-4 times a day? What if housing was so much cheaper and one could come to Toronto for office trips or medical / shopping 2x a week. It would make Sudbury a community that is an easy commute to Toronto.

My point is that it opens up more possibilities. Not just in Sudbury but places in between from Parry Sound to Orilia and so on. Better transportation options make places more liveable and attractive.

This is entirely on point. Japan's HSR riders are largely commuters (during peak usage periods at least) doing ~300km distances (roughly 1 hour). If transportation allowed a Sudbury to Toronto trip within 1 hour and for $20, it would be quite attractive as a residential suburb of Toronto.

CRRC is developing a 450km/h (speed testing complete, production deployment in development), so in 10 years that scenario will be technically possible if we wanted to spend a huge amount of money to achieve it.

 

[lenaitch]

This is entirely on point. Japan's HSR riders are largely commuters (during peak usage periods at least) doing ~300km distances (roughly 1 hour). If transportation allowed a Sudbury to Toronto trip within 1 hour and for $20, it would be quite attractive as a residential suburb of Toronto.

CRRC is developing a 450km/h (speed testing complete, production deployment in development), so in 10 years that scenario will be technically possible if we wanted to spend a huge amount of money to achieve it.

And what is the population of the catchment areas for those services? Or is this a 'build it and they will come' service? And for $20 a ride, too!

 

[innsertnamehere]

2005. McGuinty's Places to Grow Act

Look in this article about how the province is overriding the Region of Waterloo's growth plan - pushing the edge of the urban area, for the next few decades, to Shantz Station Road - much further east than the Region had planned, in only the next 30 years - adding an additional 200,000 to the Region's planned 2051 population - mostly through sprawl rather than densification.

I don't have my hands on the City of Guelph 2051 plan - but as you can see below, Guelph's border on the west already matches the urban boundary - so their growth can't be there.

The 3-km between Guelph and Waterloo Region is part of the Guelph/Eramosa township (north section) and of Wellington County. The province also meddled with Wellington's plan, but not much in this area. But Wellington are planning a new industrial estate along the Highway 25 corridor, north of the CN Guelph Subdivision, between County Road 32 and Whitelaw Road - further pushing urbanization into the triangle. Certainly the entire triangle isn't designated. But encroachment continues. And this is just the 2051. How long until the urban area combines? 2081? 2101?

BTW, note in the changed plan that the urban area of Baden will join the urban area of St. Jacobs.

With all the fuss about the new lands being taken out of the Greenbelt plan, I'm surprised there's been less discussion about these particular changes - which are very granular, and designate particular lots of land - some quite small!

REGION OF WATERLOO - 2022 PLANView attachment 506690

PROVINCE OF ONTARIO 2023 PLAN - UNAPPEALABLE
View attachment 506695

Even with the urban boundary expansion the two cities still have some pretty large rural areas between them.

Once Highway 7 New opens, whenever that ends up being, I think you’ll see a lot more integration between the two cities. Right now transportation links are so poor that it’s not particularly easy to get between the two.

 

[Urban Sky]

This is entirely on point. Japan's HSR riders are largely commuters (during peak usage periods at least) doing ~300km distances (roughly 1 hour). If transportation allowed a Sudbury to Toronto trip within 1 hour and for $20, it would be quite attractive as a residential suburb of Toronto.

CRRC is developing a 450km/h (speed testing complete, production deployment in development), so in 10 years that scenario will be technically possible if we wanted to spend a huge amount of money to achieve it.

Toronto-Sudbury (420 km) within one hour and for $20? I invite anyone interested in such fantasy discussions (even with Japan’s Shinkansen, such distances take usually at least twice as long and tickets cost much more than $20) to find a more appropriate thread…

 

[Northern Light]

This is entirely on point. Japan's HSR riders are largely commuters (during peak usage periods at least) doing ~300km distances (roughly 1 hour). If transportation allowed a Sudbury to Toronto trip within 1 hour and for $20,

@Urban Sky was a bit more snarky than I was going to be..........

But he's on point.

The average running speed for the Shinkansen from Osaka to Tokyo is ~200km/ph or thereabouts. Sure its peak speed between stations is much faster, but the trip time has acceleration/deceleration and dwell time.

If you apply that to Toronto - Sudbury, assuming a completely new, straight as possible line ROW, only moving out of the way of major inlets/bays etc. You have a distance of ~350km to cover. That would put your best possible run time at ~1 hr 45, rather optimistically.

Translating the price for that train from Japan, I get about $127CAD 1-way for 500km, assuming, you could pro-rate that to the shorter 350km distance, you're at $88.90 one way, assuming a 10% discount on a round-trip, you're at ~$160.

That there is some seriously pricey commuting.

CRRC is developing a 450km/h (speed testing complete, production deployment in development), so in 10 years that scenario will be technically possible if we wanted to spend a huge amount of money to achieve it.

Again, this is maximum speed, not average operating speed. I imagine with few stops, you could drive average speeds a bit higher than is currently seen in Japan, but I wouldn't imagine one would see much better than a 25% improvement in the foreseeable future.

Sure, that would knock down the super-optimistic commute to 1hr 20 at a push. But that's borderline fantasy and the cost of getting that done would be astronomical.

I'm happy to favour restoring more City-Pair rail services in Canada.

I'm happy to consider subsidizing CP/CN to improve their trackage, and straighten some bit of alignment (or build partially new ROW if one can get competitive times and utility from that.

But that would not deliver Sudbury-Toronto as a commuter line.

Also if one was to shell out that kind of dough, beyond the mainline corridor in Southern Ontario/Quebec it would logically be to extend existing commuter runs just one city further (ie. Barrie to Orillia by dropping commute times) or Stouffville to Uxbridge/Lindsay; or of course to other logical City-Pairs which would be Edmonton/Calgary.

 

[Sunnyside]

2005. McGuinty's Places to Grow Act

Look in this article about how the province is overriding the Region of Waterloo's growth plan - pushing the edge of the urban area, for the next few decades, to Shantz Station Road - much further east than the Region had planned, in only the next 30 years - adding an additional 200,000 to the Region's planned 2051 population - mostly through sprawl rather than densification.

I don't have my hands on the City of Guelph 2051 plan - but as you can see below, Guelph's border on the west already matches the urban boundary - so their growth can't be there.

The 3-km between Guelph and Waterloo Region is part of the Guelph/Eramosa township (north section) and of Wellington County. The province also meddled with Wellington's plan, but not much in this area. But Wellington are planning a new industrial estate along the Highway 25 corridor, north of the CN Guelph Subdivision, between County Road 32 and Whitelaw Road - further pushing urbanization into the triangle. Certainly the entire triangle isn't designated. But encroachment continues. And this is just the 2051. How long until the urban area combines? 2081? 2101?

BTW, note in the changed plan that the urban area of Baden will join the urban area of St. Jacobs.

With all the fuss about the new lands being taken out of the Greenbelt plan, I'm surprised there's been less discussion about these particular changes - which are very granular, and designate particular lots of land - some quite small!

REGION OF WATERLOO - 2022 PLANView attachment 506690

PROVINCE OF ONTARIO 2023 PLAN - UNAPPEALABLE
View attachment 506695

Ah, thank you.

 

[lead82]

@Urban Sky was a bit more snarky than I was going to be..........

But he's on point.

The average running speed for the Shinkansen from Osaka to Tokyo is ~200km/ph or thereabouts. Sure its peak speed between stations is much faster, but the trip time has acceleration/deceleration and dwell time.

If you apply that to Toronto - Sudbury, assuming a completely new, straight as possible line ROW, only moving out of the way of major inlets/bays etc. You have a distance of ~350km to cover. That would put your best possible run time at ~1 hr 45, rather optimistically.

Translating the price for that train from Japan, I get about $127CAD 1-way for 500km, assuming, you could pro-rate that to the shorter 350km distance, you're at $88.90 one way, assuming a 10% discount on a round-trip, you're at ~$160.

That there is some seriously pricey commuting.



Again, this is maximum speed, not average operating speed. I imagine with few stops, you could drive average speeds a bit higher than is currently seen in Japan, but I wouldn't imagine one would see much better than a 25% improvement in the foreseeable future.

Sure, that would knock down the super-optimistic commute to 1hr 20 at a push. But that's borderline fantasy and the cost of getting that done would be astronomical.

I'm happy to favour restoring more City-Pair rail services in Canada.

I'm happy to consider subsidizing CP/CN to improve their trackage, and straighten some bit of alignment (or build partially new ROW if one can get competitive times and utility from that.

But that would not deliver Sudbury-Toronto as a commuter line.

Also if one was to shell out that kind of dough, beyond the mainline corridor in Southern Ontario/Quebec it would logically be to extend existing commuter runs just one city further (ie. Barrie to Orillia by dropping commute times) or Stouffville to Uxbridge/Lindsay; or of course to other logical City-Pairs which would be Edmonton/Calgary.

A 2 hr commute is doable if someone is going once a week. Yes it’s a long day but one can work on the train too. The point is to provide options. It doesn’t even have to be Shinkansen speed. A decent speed that connects the two cities within 2-2.5hrs would do it. With connectivity to other northern communities Sudbury can become a northern hub. The point is to encourage population growth there rather than fitting more people into Southern Ontario. If our province had a proper strategy and plan this could work. It doesn’t and our government actually doesn’t have the capacity or capabilities to do this kind of work. So this is just pie in the sky dreaming.

Let’s see when the Northlander train comes back. I predict no earlier than 2030.

 

[Northern Light]

A 2 hr commute is doable if someone is going once a week. Yes it’s a long day but one can work on the train too. The point is to provide options. It doesn’t even have to be Shinkansen speed. A decent speed that connects the two cities within 2-2.5hrs would do it.

Don't get me wrong, I love the idea, in theory.

But to hit your 2hr 30m target on a Toronto-Sudbury run would require an average speed of 175km/ph, in a completely optimized, mostly new ROW.

That is HSR, unless you're running Toronto-Sudbury non-stop express, to maintain that average speed (and even then), you require a peak speed well in excess of 200km/ph which requires electrification.

Over that distance you're talking well over 10B, possibly a lot over 10B.

Not happening in the near-term

I agree with Sudbury as a 'hub', and doing so w/conventional rail where it makes sense.

That would be roughly as far south as Parry Sound, as far west as Elliot Lake and as far east as North Bay.

Based on current populations in those centres and en route, only NB could perhaps justify the investment in the near term.

Thing is, there are so many other places to put the $$$ first.

Toronto-Sudbury, as a once a day service, which would have to be subsidized, for those for whom driving is not an option and a bus undesirable for whatever reason, I'm ok with finding the funding for; but its not 'commuter-class' by a longshot.

It won't do as well as a frequent bus, for now; and the 'next level' of investment which would be to start optimizing either the CN or CP trackage linking Sudbury-Toronto to slowly drop the run time is billions, just to get you to competitive w/the car.

I could support that longer term, potentially, based on a plan for Sudbury to grow to 500,000+ people.

But the numbers just don't make sense near-term.

***

Near term; the logic would be to make Sudbury a bus hub, with connections throughout the north and to Toronto, K-W and Ottawa. Once you get a decent amount of traffic in the corridor, rail becomes worth a closer look on the lowest cost segments and you go from there

 

[Urban Sky]

A decent speed that connects the two cities within 2-2.5hrs would do it.

I really hate to say this, but claiming Toronto-Sudbury warrants billions of HSR investments to cut travel times to “2-2.5hrs” by rail is only marginally less absurd than saying the same for one hour. We really already struggle enough here to remind ourselves that this is not a fantasy thread.

We unfortunately have no fantasy rail thread, but I have previously created a dedicated thread for this kind of ideas, so that they don’t get drowned here:

Lack of meaningful Passenger Rail service outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor

Lack of meaningful Passenger Rail service outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor As indicated in its title, this thread is dedicated to the discussion of any passenger rail services outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor, which lost passenger rail service or have it seen reduced to a less-than-daily...

urbantoronto.ca

 

[micheal_can]

This is entirely on point. Japan's HSR riders are largely commuters (during peak usage periods at least) doing ~300km distances (roughly 1 hour). If transportation allowed a Sudbury to Toronto trip within 1 hour and for $20, it would be quite attractive as a residential suburb of Toronto.

CRRC is developing a 450km/h (speed testing complete, production deployment in development), so in 10 years that scenario will be technically possible if we wanted to spend a huge amount of money to achieve it.

If The HFR gets built as a HSR, Could that mean you could live in Ottawa and commute to Toronto daily?