[crs1026]

I unfortunately wouldn't expect a lot of capital funding for any transit projects under a Poilievre government though, given how he's a hardcore fiscal conservative who will be laser focused on spending cuts. One also shouldn't underestimate how much the CPC base has become radicalized against urbanism and Canada's largest cities, and any large spending program that benefits them, way more so then when Harper was PM. Poilievre doesn't seem to want to get along with the Premiers either. FWIW Doug Ford has been surprisingly pro-transit, but I don't think he could win the PC leadership today either. If anything a Poilievre government may be more willing to fund upgrades to highways in Western Canada than any transit projects. Of course this is 100% speculation as Poilievre has said very little if anything about transportation policy, but he often complained about OC Transpo in his twitter rants before becoming leader.

I would say it's lucky that so many huge generational transit projects (like the Ontario Line, GO Electrification, REM, Broadway Subway, Edmonton and Calgary LRT expansion, even the Ottawa LRT) made it over the line while the money spigots were wide open.

I agree that PP’s DNA will be skewed towards highways and the West …. However I am hopeful that governments often all do the same in the end because there are sometimes good solutions that trump both ideology and previously stated positions.

Ford is an interesting case study, because one would never have expected him to be so pro transit, but he was - for two reasons - first, transit is the obvious and cheapest solution to mobility in the GTA, and second, because every premier wants signature projects for bragging rights, and the signature transit projects give him that… especially Line 2 and Ontario Line, where he can maintain that he did something better that TTC and Toronto Council couldn’t move on.

The unavoidable rocks in the river that the next government (regardless who it is) will face include decisions about costly airport expansion, a decision about the VIA long distance fleet, and decisions about Quebec’s hunger for north shore HSR. PP may not like it, but no PM can afford to completely snub Quebec. There is an opportunity to get something going that is cheaper and more quickly built than the Liberal’s poor effort to date. So maybe there is a spin that gives him hero status by “saving” HxR instead of killing it..

- Paul.

 

[IRT_BMT_IND]

I agree that PP’s DNA will be skewed towards highways and the West …. However I am hopeful that governments often all do the same in the end because there are sometimes good solutions that trump both ideology and previously stated positions.

Ford is an interesting case study, because one would never have expected him to be so pro transit, but he was - for two reasons - first, transit is the obvious and cheapest solution to mobility in the GTA, and second, because every premier wants signature projects for bragging rights, and the signature transit projects give him that… especially Line 2 and Ontario Line, where he can maintain that he did something better that TTC and Toronto Council couldn’t move on.

The unavoidable rocks in the river that the next government (regardless who it is) will face include decisions about costly airport expansion, a decision about the VIA long distance fleet, and decisions about Quebec’s hunger for north shore HSR. PP may not like it, but no PM can afford to completely snub Quebec. There is an opportunity to get something going that is cheaper and more quickly built than the Liberal’s poor effort to date. So maybe there is a spin that gives him hero status by “saving” HxR instead of killing it..

- Paul.

I find it hard to be optimistic about the future of VIA's long distance services under a conservative government. Again, this is all speculation (and PP has released no policy proposals), but going by what various CPC aligned commentators and Poilievre surrogates have been talking about recently, I'd expect a PP government's transportation priorities to be highways (recall the culture war fracas about highway funding earlier this year, a CPC government will consciously make a point on this file and probably announce lots of funding for things like TCH twinning projects) and cheaper airfares (aviation policy is OT to this thread, but I could foresee full airport privatization and thus elimination of airport rents, unilateral open skies, and even allowing 100% foreign ownership of airlines, which is more or less what Australia did) .

 

[kEiThZ]

We have no idea what they'll do till they are in office. Hope for the best is all we can do.

 

[crs1026]

^The interesting thing about the long distance trains is that, while they represent nobody’s idea of a useful transportation function, they do represent a fair number of good paying jobs in Western Canada. So even PP would have to tread carefully to cancel the trains.
I am not optimistic that the trains will survive - but the decision is not a slam dunk. Perhaps it will be a pitch not unlike Pepin in 1981, where he argued that in order to fund new things (this time Western highways, perhaps, where Pepin bought LRCs) Ottawa must find cuts somewhere else.
Even with current Weatern Canadian sentiments, losing those jobs will not happen without pushback.

- Paul

 

[Frank_Lee]

Realistically, although Peloquin has a surprising degree of gumption, I imagine progress on HFR/HSR or anything else intercity will have to be championed by the Legault and Ford or whoever their successors will be. I can imagine a world where the feds will cough up money provided the provinces at least match it and the federal government gets to put signs every 100 metres saying "Rebuilding Canada's Infrastructure" or something. Not that this is particularly likely, though...

 

[Frank_Lee]

Realistically, although Peloquin has a surprising degree of gumption, I imagine progress on HFR/HSR or anything else intercity will have to be championed by the Legault and Ford or whoever their successors will be. I can imagine a world where the feds will cough up money provided the provinces at least match it and the federal government gets to put signs every 100 metres saying "Rebuilding Canada's Infrastructure" or something. Not that this is particularly likely, though...

That is, under a CPC government, provided the CPC does particularly well in Ontario and Quebec.

 

[dowlingm]

I recall quite a bit of doom and gloom when Harper came to power, but things were already pretty grim after the Paul Martin years, and the Kingston sub third tracking (mixed blessing though it turned out to be - cost overruns and truncated scope) came from that Harper period.

I have zero time for PP but I suspect there might be enough brain cells in his cadre to at least see how Northlander pans out (operationally and politically) before making any cuts, or promises of further renewal. That will likely agitate the LD advocates but a hasty order before the Liberals exit may simply result in the sort of cancel with penalties and hope for reorder we have seen before in the armed forces multiple times in the last 20 years.

 

[warrens]

Ford is an interesting case study, because one would never have expected him to be so pro transit

I'm not surprised at all. Ford was an advocate for the Sheppard Subway extension as early as 2011 (despite it not being anywhere near his ward), and of course his brother famously wanted to build subways, subways, subways.

 

[Bordercollie]

I'm not surprised at all. Ford was an advocate for the Sheppard Subway extension as early as 2011 (despite it not being anywhere near his ward), and of course his brother famously wanted to build subways, subways, subways.

Although I don't see prime minister Pierre supporting rail transportation in any form, if you look at what's going on south of the border, they are investing tons of money into rail and it would be an embarrassment if we destroyed our national passenger rail service. I don't think rural conservative voters would stand for it.

At the same time I wonder if they would actually win a majority....as much as the poles indicate he would I think that another minority Liberal Government with the NDP backing them might be a more likely reality. It would be nice if we had a more competent leader but there is nobody who would be a good candidate.

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't think rural conservative voters would stand for it.

This forum vastly overestimates how much rural residents care about VIA. Especially outside the a few towns paralleling the 401. You can drive 30 mins north of the 401 and find people don't care about rail.

Also, good chunks of the base maybe rural. But elections are fought and won in the suburbs. Their policies are being decided by what sells in the burbs.

At the same time I wonder if they would actually win a majority

Every poll says they are in strong majority territory.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm not surprised at all. Ford was an advocate for the Sheppard Subway extension as early as 2011 (despite it not being anywhere near his ward), and of course his brother famously wanted to build subways, subways, subways.

Ford's family has history with old school Progressive Conservatives, the wing of the party that built a lot of the infrastructure in Ontario. His current push with transit investment is simply an effort to extend that legacy.

^The interesting thing about the long distance trains is that, while they represent nobody’s idea of a useful transportation function, they do represent a fair number of good paying jobs in Western Canada. So even PP would have to tread carefully to cancel the trains.
I am not optimistic that the trains will survive - but the decision is not a slam dunk. Perhaps it will be a pitch not unlike Pepin in 1981, where he argued that in order to fund new things (this time Western highways, perhaps, where Pepin bought LRCs) Ottawa must find cuts somewhere else.
Even with current Western Canadian sentiments, losing those jobs will not happen without pushback.

- Paul

I'm not sure there is much that will convince PP. But I do think he can be convinced by economic arguments. We now have a ton of press about how bad productivity is in this country. GDP per capita hasn't grown in years. To some extent, certain infrastructure projects like HSR can provide a kickstart. But again no idea. He could just turn out to be the federal version of Mike Harris.

 

[T3G]

I'm not surprised at all. Ford was an advocate for the Sheppard Subway extension as early as 2011 (despite it not being anywhere near his ward), and of course his brother famously wanted to build subways, subways, subways.

Subways, subways, subways was a culture war that pitted the latte sipping downtown condo dwellers against the honest, hard working, rustic folk of Scarborough, and it was done only because Rob Ford hated streetcars for the space they took away on the roads from motorists. It was definitely not a good faith push to expand transit.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

That land already has a useful and necessary purpose - agriculture.

That land is very quickly being turned into sprawl. Let's not ignore this fact when arguing against improving transit options.

 

[Bordercollie]

Ford's family has history with old school Progressive Conservatives, the wing of the party that built a lot of the infrastructure in Ontario. His current push with transit investment is simply an effort to extend that legacy.



I'm not sure there is much that will convince PP. But I do think he can be convinced by economic arguments. We now have a ton of press about how bad productivity is in this country. GDP per capita hasn't grown in years. To some extent, certain infrastructure projects like HSR can provide a kickstart. But again no idea. He could just turn out to be the federal version of Mike Harris.

But I don't know if you can just eliminate services to rural communities at a whim. Is that a transport Canada decision? How much influence does the sitting government have on the direction of transport Canada?

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Subways, subways, subways was a culture war that pitted the latte sipping downtown condo dwellers against the honest, hard working, rustic folk of Scarborough, and it was done only because Rob Ford hated streetcars for the space they took away on the roads from motorists. It was definitely not a good faith push to expand transit.

This. The Ontario Line wasn't proposed/built because it was needed it was proposed as a way to spit in the eyes of the transit planners and city councilors who he fought his subways, subways, subways for the suburbs culture war. And for him to stand up and say "look at how I get things done". Recall he completely scrapped the existing DRL plans that had long been in the hopper and had years of studies, just to pull his own napkin drawing out of his hat. It was purely for political points, that the line actually serves a needed function was secondary