[Markster]

While there have certainly been delays, the scale and pace of construction is pretty astonishing to me.

Yeah, the pace of construction really is something.
I don't share drum's opinion about it not getting finished until 2018. I understand that it certainly seems like nothing is getting done, particularly when one visits a few weeks apart and sees the same streets still dug up. But once they finish utilities on a street, it's actually phenomenal how quickly the concrete, asphalt, and rails can go in.

Basically all of the road construction is of the form:
1) 4-8 months of utility work
2) 1 month of concrete/asphalt/rail work

Will every foot of track be complete by Jan 1st 2017? Probably not.
But the Waterloo Spur will certainly be ready for vehicle commissioning.
The promised date is late 2017 for a reason, as it gives them that last construction season before commissioning the entire line.

 

[Megaton327]

I'm not going to express an opinion on whether I expect the late 2017 opening to hold or not on the basis of construction progress. The reason is that if you look at the Queen's Quay revitalization in Toronto, in the last couple of months before it opened (in June 2015 I think) it looked terrible--massive amounts of work still yet to be completed or even started in some places, looked terrible, everything still dug up, looking barely any better than it had when construction started about 3 years prior. However, in that last month or two, when everything started out looking completely unfinished and absolutely hopeless, suddenly progress accelerated to a pace such that myself and others were posting many photos to the project thread almost every day showing massive progress/large sections suddenly going from completely torn up to almost completely finished. I remember not believing it could possibly meet the opening year never mind the opening month/date, and most people in the thread seemed to share that opinion--but progress was incredible, and it finished on schedule (well, on the latest schedule of June 2015, I believe it had been delayed earlier but this deadline had been the one nobody believed) proving myself and many others wrong.

You would be amazed what can be done with these projects in a short span close to opening. Yes, sometimes the project can be completely mismanaged and totally blow past the opening date, but sometimes they can really pull it together. I've been amazed by the pace of progress in KW with this so far, so all I'll say is I hope it continues.

However, you'll note I said that was about construction progress--I fully expect Bombardier to be massively behind schedule on the LRVs and for that to delay the opening by months if not over a year

 

[WislaHD]

LOL. What? So an out-of-towner shows up and decides after looking at our system for a day it's no longer on time and won't open until 2018?

Right.

Thanks for the input.

The entire line could be done and complete, but... looks like Waterloo is joining Toronto (and London, and a bunch other cities) in their frustration with Bombardier.

There won't be trains to operate on a complete ion rail line by early 2018.

 

[Duck]

...because fall of 2016 comes after early 2018? You lost me.

 

[smallspy]

...because fall of 2016 comes after early 2018? You lost me.

Bombardier seems to be having difficulty ramping up the production of the TTC's streetcars, right?

The thought is that this same difficulty will carry over the the Metrolinx and GRT cars, and so while the first car may only be delayed by a couple of months to later this year, when it comes time to ship the production cars (which were supposed to start to arrive this fall) instead of sending 2 or 3 cars a month they'll only ship 1. And that will be starting some time after the first car ships, say 4 to 6 months.

Now, the one saving grace is that there are only 14 cars currently earmarked for Ion, with only 11 needed for service.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[gweed123]

Bombardier seems to be having difficulty ramping up the production of the TTC's streetcars, right?

The thought is that this same difficulty will carry over the the Metrolinx and GRT cars, and so while the first car may only be delayed by a couple of months to later this year, when it comes time to ship the production cars (which were supposed to start to arrive this fall) instead of sending 2 or 3 cars a month they'll only ship 1. And that will be starting some time after the first car ships, say 4 to 6 months.

Now, the one saving grace is that there are only 14 cars currently earmarked for Ion, with only 11 needed for service.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

You'd have to wonder if Bombardier, if they have the choice between delivering 14 Ion LRT vehicles or 14 TTC vehicles in time for Ion's 2018 opening, if they would prioritize Ion, even though the TTC was in first, just to only have one lawsuit on the go. Deliver them both equally slowly and you then have 2 pissed off municipalities instead of one really pissed off one.

 

[Duck]

That was exactly my point in the FLEXITY Outlook streetcar thread; you just expressed it far more eloquently. I believe that will be the case, yes.

I can't even imagine the fallout in this forum if that happens, though. It'll be like Gargantua in Interstellar.

 

[gweed123]

That was exactly my point in the FLEXITY Outlook streetcar thread; you just expressed it far more eloquently. I believe that will be the case, yes.

I can't even imagine the fallout in this forum if that happens, though. It'll be like Gargantua in Interstellar.

Yes, I read that thread after I posted this here, my bad! I'm sure that if production doesn't pick up to a pace where both can be delivered at a good pace (with Ion being on time), it will likely come down to the lawyers and accountants. Is a lawsuit from both Waterloo and Toronto smaller than a larger lawsuit from just Toronto?

Also, there's the PR factor of this. Is having one order really late better or worse than having 2 orders that are late? How much bad press will either option produce, and in how many different markets?

 

[Duck]

No worries at all!

Personally, I think the optics are far better to have one really late order (TTC), and keep ion (and Crosstown, and Edmonton, and eventually Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch) all on-time. Bombardier can always say that the problems with delays with the TTC Streetcars was because of all the customization or something, or that it's the first, etc. But that can't be said about the standard FLEXITY Freedom vehicles that all the other lines will be using.

Toronto has lots of streetcars already, but Waterloo has no trains at all, so it screws Waterloo far worse if trains didn't arrive. It's not like we can borrow a couple of Interurbans from Halton or something.

 

[gweed123]

No worries at all!

Personally, I think the optics are far better to have one really late order (TTC), and keep ion (and Crosstown, and Edmonton, and eventually Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch) all on-time. Bombardier can always say that the problems with delays with the TTC Streetcars was because of all the customization or something, or that it's the first, etc. But that can't be said about the standard FLEXITY Freedom vehicles that all the other lines will be using.

Toronto has lots of streetcars already, but Waterloo has no trains at all, so it screws Waterloo far worse if trains didn't arrive. It's not like we can borrow a couple of Interurbans from Halton or something.

I agree completely. Also, in all of the municipalities you mention, they're building what is in essence Phase I of a multi-phase LRT expansions. Toronto's streetcar network isn't going to get any bigger, aside from maybe the East Bayfront LRT, which would likely use the legacy LFLRVs. Delays on those projects could ban Bombardier from bidding on the vehicle requirements for future phases of those projects.

EDIT: Come to think of it, no LRT project in the GTHA, or in all of Ontario for that matter, is being built to it's full extent in this round of projects. K-W, Hamilton, Hurontario, Finch, Eglinton, Sheppard, and Ottawa will all be adding onto lines currently under construction/close to construction within the next decade. There isn't a single "one and done" LRT project in all of Ontario.

 

[reaperexpress]

Morning of April 22 update:

The running wire is being installed between Columbia and Quiet Place. It's currently hanging on carabiners, but will probably be mounted this afternoon or next week.

Between Old Albert and Quiet Place, poles are installed, but no mounting brackets or wires.

North of Old Albert, poles are not installed.

 

[smallspy]

No worries at all!

Personally, I think the optics are far better to have one really late order (TTC), and keep ion (and Crosstown, and Edmonton, and eventually Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch) all on-time. Bombardier can always say that the problems with delays with the TTC Streetcars was because of all the customization or something, or that it's the first, etc. But that can't be said about the standard FLEXITY Freedom vehicles that all the other lines will be using.

Except that it's not that easy.

The Flexity cars being built for Metrolinx/Ion are being fabricated in the exact same manner that the TTC's are, and from many of the same components. The only saving grace might be if Metrolinx didn't require nearly as stringent an inspections and sign-off process as the TTC does - which I highly doubt to be honest. The TTC certainly wouldn't go for that for any vehicles that they would have to operate.

So, if the TTC is having difficulty getting new cars, that same problem is extremely likely to carry over to the other cars. And depending on how things go, maybe Edmonton as well (although I don't know how their tender was written so I don't know who, if anyone, has the decision to send in production inspectors).

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[Duck]

While all that is fine and dandy it ignored my point: that while there may be limited capacity in Thunder Bay, it doesn't mean that the order can't be shuffled. So it might go, TTC-ion-ion-TTC-Ion-ion-... Instead of just alternating.

 

[nfitz]

I'd assume that because the prototype is for the same vehicle that TTC is going to be running for Metrolinx, that Waterloo, Metrolinx, and TTC are all going to have to sign-off on the prototype before they start production of the remaining 13 cars for Waterloo.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's 2017 before everyone signs off on the prototype.

While all that is fine and dandy it ignored my point: that while there may be limited capacity in Thunder Bay, it doesn't mean that the order can't be shuffled. So it might go, TTC-ion-ion-TTC-Ion-ion-... Instead of just alternating.

One thing to remember is that production is finally winding down on the Toronto Rockets. That should create some space and staff availability in Thunder Bay.

Though all indications are that the bottleneck is in Mexico.

 

[Allandale25]

No worries at all!

Personally, I think the optics are far better to have one really late order (TTC), and keep ion (and Crosstown, and Edmonton, and eventually Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch) all on-time. Bombardier can always say that the problems with delays with the TTC Streetcars was because of all the customization or something, or that it's the first, etc. But that can't be said about the standard FLEXITY Freedom vehicles that all the other lines will be using.

I could be wrong but has Bombardier actually won the contracts to supply LRVs for Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch? I thought a RFP still had to be issued for each of those lines where various companies could bid?