DougB
Active Member
Forecasts beyond about 5 days are useless in Calgary. Christimas will be somewhere between -35 and +20
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- Thread starter UrbanWarrior
- Start date
MichaelS
Senior Member
I just keep an eye on the 14 day forecast on the weather network. If there is a cold snap and snow 10-11 days out, I start to plan to set aside about 1.5 hours that weekend to swap the tires on my car (the wife's SUV uses all weather tires, so no need to swap).
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
The 14 day weather forecast from the weather network has gotten markedly more reliable over the last few years, so I trust it generally within +/- 5° of what they’re saying.
The “Fall Outlook”, “Winter Outlook” etc that they release are also half decent indicators of the weather trend over the next three months. Can’t set your watch by it of course. Last winter they called for above average temps, which we did experience, but we also got the coldest 3-day period in 80 years during January, so yeah.
The “Fall Outlook”, “Winter Outlook” etc that they release are also half decent indicators of the weather trend over the next three months. Can’t set your watch by it of course. Last winter they called for above average temps, which we did experience, but we also got the coldest 3-day period in 80 years during January, so yeah.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
With a La Nina brewing, this should be a milder and snowier winter, so yay snowboarding!
Roaring Flames
Senior Member
I'll believe it when I see it. If anything I expect an average winter instead of the above average temperatures we always seem to get now.
DougB
Active Member
Averages don'ts apply to Calgary. Its weather, like its economy, is bimodal.
lemongrab
Active Member
Of course it's dangerous to compare single year snapshots, but this may show climate change over just 16 years. I'm sure the bottom photo would be a bit more yellow by tomorrow, but probably still well short of the top one.And another one that compares only 2008 to 2024 seeing as they are taken from the exact same angle.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
I think there is far too much variation in our climate to gauge 3 days in terms of climate change as a factor. I 100% believe climate change is real, but the difference year to year can be a couple weeks in terms of peak fall colours.
lemongrab
Active Member
Ya even just today it seemed way more yellow than yesterday. It would be interesting to have a view like that you could see on the same date you could see every single year
Mountain Man
Senior Member
It's definitely interesting to think about. I had a facebook memory yesterday showing the tree in front of my house glowing golden, 2 years later it's basically bald. So either fall in my little pocket of the city was 2 weeks later 2 years ago, or 2 weeks earlier this year. I think it's the former.
It varies from year to year, especially if we get a heavy frost, the leaves go quickly. The coloring of some trees seems to vary on how much heat and sunlight we get. It's definitely later this year, and it's been this way for the past three years and the Septembers have been statistically warmer.
How much is related to climate change is hard to say.
How much is related to climate change is hard to say.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
Some interested food for thought, thanks to the now 5 year old Canada's Changing Climate report. Had some interesting statistics. Full report is here and is outdated, but still useful: https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2019/eccc/En4-368-2019-eng.pdf
Relevant to this conversation is the 1948 - 2016 dataset comparisons (page 143)
Here's length of growing season. Note western Canada is lengthening the fastest, Calgary is somewhere between 15 and 20 days longer than the 1940s:
And the even more noticeable increase in "warm nights":
Again, this is only 1948 to 2016 data. 7 of the top 10 warmest years in history were recorded since 2016.
I don't have a clue if trees turning colour is a related to a warmth thing or more of a sunlight thing, but one of those two things is rapidly changing.
Roaring Flames
Senior Member
This is great and all but really off topic from the thread. Maybe it can be moved into the weather and gardening thread?
Ramsayite
Active Member
Deciduous trees start dormancy based on a wide range of factors; Day length is the primary driver, followed by the integral of evapotranspiration rates over multiple weeks. Evapotranspiration is based on air temperature and humidity, soil temp and humidity, solar exposure and wind speed. It's also going to vary based on the plant's accumulated moisture content, leaf count and sugar concentrations - essentially the accumulated "record" of the entire growth season.
It's very complex to trace the different chemical reactions that happen in leaves as they "sense" the season change, and their behaviour is fine-tuned to overall survivability and not just whether it's hot or cold...
A much better indicator of our changing climate is looking at accumulated growing degree days (or corn heat units) for a given year, the trend there is pretty wild.
(Sorry to continue the off-topic conversation, but this is my jam)
It's very complex to trace the different chemical reactions that happen in leaves as they "sense" the season change, and their behaviour is fine-tuned to overall survivability and not just whether it's hot or cold...
A much better indicator of our changing climate is looking at accumulated growing degree days (or corn heat units) for a given year, the trend there is pretty wild.
(Sorry to continue the off-topic conversation, but this is my jam)
Interesting. I have noticed the length of the growing season, nice to know it's not just my imagination. I've had a backyard garden for 24 straight years, and for the first dozen years there was a heavy September frost in probably 10 of the 12 years, and in the past 12 years it's been roughly the opposite. In the summer of 2022, the frost didn't hit the garden until mid October. Part of it is where the garden is located (near a retaining wall), and maybe there is some heat island effect.
Either way though, the growing season all around the city has been noticeably longer. A few other noticeable things. A couple of people in the neighborhood, have planted apple trees that are producing full sized apples, and some others have planted grape vines, and are getting grapes.