[OneCity]

It's close enough to the election to pose this question. Who is most likely to do better than the prediction below, and who will do worse.

Tory 55%
Keesmaat 30%
Goldy 10%
Other 5%

The media did their best to promote the #4 and #5 candidates, but I don't think the "others" can top 5%.

JK likely hit at hard 30% ceiling and then started to reverse causing her own to jump ship. Losing the support of her promoters could be enough to take 5-10% points off. I wouldn't even try to guess Goldys support, I'm shocked its was even at 10% at any point. But the blackout played perfectly into her campaign to fire up the anti-establishment Right voter to be motivated. I really don't know what to expect here, but could become a big storyline afterwards if that number hold 10% or above. Tory just had to remain silent and let his 2 main opponents campaign for him with their polarizing rhetoric. Easiest Mayoral win ever

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

I'm late for this poll, but I voted for Jen Keesmaat, however, I am not upset that John Tory won. Tory lost my vote when he showed himself to be weak of spine towards Doug this summer, but I am cautiously optimistic that Tory's second term will be better than his first in terms of leadership. He does not have to worry about re-election anymore, and can focus on legacy projects.

Keesmaat had basically zero presence north of Bloor, and ultimately I am surprised that she performed as well as she did. I have no idea how she thought she had a shot of winning this election. Like others, I was hoping she would run in 2022 with the Tory endorsement and with an experienced campaign team and strategists. Too many broken bridges now.

I predicted that Faith would get between 3-4%, and she did. It is kind of funny in a bemusement kind of way that the media tried to push other fringe candidates as alternatives for Tory-Keesmaat and yet, those failed to even match Faith's numbers.