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Who will you vote for mayor of Toronto in 2014?

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
DarnDirtyApe said:
Thanks to urban gentrification and the condo boom, it's not just ex-suburban young adults who are supporting Tory; it is a pretty widespread shift away from NDP/Chow/traditional left-wing "progressive" politics that you also saw in the last provincial election, benefiting the Liberals in that case. As we all know, downtown is booming and those who have private sector (non-unionized) jobs and own property don't find much in Chow's platform that resonates with them.
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Anecdotally, this seems right. I'd think the condo boom downtown has brought in people who are probably not as left-leaning as Chow/NDP, which likely benefits Liberals & Tory.

I would think a lot of the new downtown condo residents are young single professionals making a pretty good salary, maybe Bay St, Lawyers, working in tech etc.

Where can one find data on who's winning in a given part of a city (maybe ideally in map format)? It would be really interesting. I have my suspicions on what areas are leaning towards which candidate but they aren't backed up by any data.
 
I doubt there are any polls, but it is actually pretty easy to pigeonhole people (in aggregate, at least) based on demographic information. Candidates do it all the time when looking at where to canvass, areas of strength, etc. Older people are more likely to vote Conservative, young more likely to vote Liberal/NDP, working class vote NDP, middle class vote Liberal/Conservative, wealthy vote Conservative, etc. The challenge is in aggregating all of the data at a city-wide level and then making some sense of the data.

In this election you have Chow who attracts downtown NDP voters and maybe some left-leaning Liberals, Tory is more of a Blue Liberal/Red Tory, and Ford attracts "red meat conservatives" and other disaffected, politically disengaged voters.

Chow might have had more success if she had focused more on nuts and bolts issues (roads, infrastructure, etc.) and less on "progressive" issues, but I think that ship has sailed. For better or worse, most suburban voters are more concerned with roads and taxes than anything else, and she is offside with their views in most respects.
 
ehlow said:
Anecdotally, this seems right. I'd think the condo boom downtown has brought in people who are probably not as left-leaning as Chow/NDP, which likely benefits Liberals & Tory.

I would think a lot of the new downtown condo residents are young single professionals making a pretty good salary, maybe Bay St, Lawyers, working in tech etc.

Where can one find data on who's winning in a given part of a city (maybe ideally in map format)? It would be really interesting. I have my suspicions on what areas are leaning towards which candidate but they aren't backed up by any data.
Click to expand...

Just use the results from the provincial election as a proxy. As I recall in the case of Trinity-Spadina there was more or less a collapse of the NDP vote.

AoD
 
I don't think "gentrification and condos" really explains the poor showing for the NDP in the last provincial election as much as people think. Kathleen Wynne sounded more progressive than the ONDP in many respects and Andrea Horwath sounded like a right-wing populist with nothing to offer for Toronto.

In neighboring Davenport, Jonah Schein did better in the more gentrified or gentrifying sections.
 
King of Kensington, gentrification and condos may actually be having a real significant impact. My neighbourhood was a sea of NDP orange in the provincial election (you could barely find a non-NDP sign on the side streets) and yet the riding went strongly Liberal.
 
TrickyRicky said:
King of Kensington, gentrification and condos may actually be having a real significant impact. My neighbourhood was a sea of NDP orange in the provincial election (you could barely find a non-NDP sign on the side streets) and yet the riding went strongly Liberal.
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I think that sign counts can be very deceiving, especially when tides are shifting. Politics can be very personal, and a lawn sign is a pretty loud statement to your neighbours. New residents may not want to rock the boat in the interest of promoting good relations with neighbours.
 
DarnDirtyApe said:
I think that sign counts can be very deceiving, especially when tides are shifting. Politics can be very personal, and a lawn sign is a pretty loud statement to your neighbours. New residents may not want to rock the boat in the interest of promoting good relations with neighbours.
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This is very, very true. Let's say you're a Ford supporter in Trinity-Spadina. You might risk a lynching....okay well ostracization for publicy endorsing him with a sign. Why risk bad relations with the neighbours over an election? Just quietly give the guy you're vote.

I think certain areas just have a more vocally active base. But that doesn't mean much, come election day. Right now polls show Tory leading in Etobicoke (Ford's home turf), Ford leading in North York (Tory's home turf) and Tory solidly leading downtown (in Chow's home turf). Signs though may not reflect all that.
 
kEiThZ said:
This is very, very true. Let's say you're a Ford supporter in Trinity-Spadina. You might risk a lynching....okay well ostracization for publicy endorsing him with a sign. Why risk bad relations with the neighbours over an election? Just quietly give the guy you're vote.

I think certain areas just have a more vocally active base. But that doesn't mean much, come election day. Right now polls show Tory leading in Etobicoke (Ford's home turf), Ford leading in North York (Tory's home turf) and Tory solidly leading downtown (in Chow's home turf). Signs though may not reflect all that.
Click to expand...

In the Bathurst & Sheppard area where I live, there are hardly any election signs here other than for councillor James Pasternack. But I do see a few John Tory, a few Ford, and very few Olivia Chow. Also, my ward has one of the lowest voter turnouts so far.
 
salsa said:
In the Bathurst & Sheppard area where I live, there are hardly any election signs here other than for councillor James Pasternack. But I do see a few John Tory, a few Ford, and very few Olivia Chow. Also, my ward has one of the lowest voter turnouts so far.
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What are your thoughts on Pasternack?

edit: Ehlow, I'm not sure, just going off what I've heard others say. It is possible he owns multiple properties, he is wealthy after all.
 
WislaHD said:
What are your thoughts on Pasternack?

edit: Ehlow, I'm not sure, just going off what I've heard others say. It is possible he owns multiple properties, he is wealthy after all.
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He will surely bring them a subway on Sheppard this time.

This article mentions that John Tory lives on a condo at Bloor:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...-business-ties-or-lack-of-council-experience/

But yeah, he has probably lived in midtown before. He grew up in Rosedale or somewhere in midtown, I think I've read.
 
kEiThZ said:
Right now polls show Tory leading in Etobicoke (Ford's home turf), Ford leading in North York (Tory's home turf) and Tory solidly leading downtown (in Chow's home turf).
Click to expand...
Last I heard, Ford was doing worse in North York than downtown.
 
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