[kEiThZ]

The NDP, Liberals and Bloq almost did it, only stopped by Harper's proroguing parliament. Wasn't it politically difficult then?

Not the same thing. The opposition taking down the government is not the same thing as the Liberals being an equal partner in coalition with the NDP, propped up by the Bloc...in essence legitimizing the Liberals main leftist challenger in the Rest of Canada, and their main opponents in Quebec.

And you seem to have forgotten how unpopular that move was with the average Canadian (not talking about those who dislike Harper and the Conservatives).

The Liberals won't want to be be relegated to 3rd party status as seems to be the case. The solution is to participate in the next government, something that a coalition will allow them to do.

No. That's something you want them to do. However, any political party (particularly one that's centuries old) is also concerned about long term survival. Participating in any NDP led government would be much, much worse for them in the long term than being the 3rd party in Parliament.

They'll likely be in power for 4 years which will allow them to rebuild the party. If they decide not to run as a coalition party in the next election, they'll surely find a breaking point which will trigger an election, providing a significant differentiation between the two parties and again making them rivals.

And that could well happen weeks in, given the federal NDP's rather than vague budgeting principles. Then what? Jack talks a big game. But he'll have a cash flow problem to keep his promises (several of which are uncosted). Even cancelling the fighter jets (which despite all the talk is actually a 30 year pay out), and rescinding the corporate tax cuts won't make the NDP's math work. And guess who'll be stuck wearing it, if the NDP doesn't adopt a more pragmatic approach. Why even bother taking the risk?

 

[kEiThZ]

I just don't see how the Liberals could vote to kick out Harper for contempt of Parliament and then allow him to come back and form a government even though he's firm in not cooperating with other parties in a minority.

I think that Ignatieff would get a nice position in an NDP+Liberal coalition. Why would he not want that?

The only way I can see them doing it while saving face is to get Harper to agree to a set of Parliamentary reforms around prorogation, committees, how candidates are selected, etc.

Do you really think the public cares about this stuff? They don't. And if they don't, why would the politicians. The Liberals aren't going to be making a Harper minority conditional on Parliamentary reforms unless there's some political mileage to be had....and/or they are willing to risk being compelled to offer an alternative (NDP coalition).

 

[GraphicMatt]

Harper has a huge role to play here too. Assuming he gets a minority again (likely), he better not be brazen enough to attempt to pass the exact same budget that led to his government's defeat. That would give the opposition leaders no choice but to defeat him.

 

[afransen]

Do you really think the public cares about this stuff? They don't. And if they don't, why would the politicians. The Liberals aren't going to be making a Harper minority conditional on Parliamentary reforms unless there's some political mileage to be had....and/or they are willing to risk being compelled to offer an alternative (NDP coalition).

The Liberals will/could probably also get something of a policy accord out of the Conservatives. They need to save face. They just voted that the government was in contempt of Parliament. To turn around and support them without concession or conciliation would be untenable.

 

[gristle]

It's a good point you make, but given the fact that the Conservatives know the public would be upset about the potential of another election (rightly or wrongly), they would have some opportunity for push-back. The issue of contempt has to be driven home by a well organized and unified opposition - should the Conservatives be elected with a minority.

 

[Kitsune]

Harper has a huge role to play here too. Assuming he gets a minority again (likely), he better not be brazen enough to attempt to pass the exact same budget that led to his government's defeat. That would give the opposition leaders no choice but to defeat him.

It is fascinating - the budget will be very similiar, but with some add bones for Quebec.... so the budget may pass if Cons + bloc = 155 or more seats. But if it doesnt... the GG is going to have miserable month on his hands.

 

[Eug]

...or perhaps the NDP putting them in third place will wipe away their smugness as the "defacto Left-of-centre" party and the Liberals will take a merger seriously now.

If the Liberals merged with the NDP, they'd lose a huge swath of voters, including probably myself.

I'm shuddering at the thought of having to consider voting Conservative... The Liberals are already centre left. The Conservatives are centre right. I don't want to be voting further left than the current Liberals... unless I lived in Saskatchewan or something where historically it's easier to take the NDP seriously... cuz in some ways Saskatchewan NDPers (at least at the provincial level) were not as left in actual practice as Ontario or Quebec NDPers.

 

[grey]

The Liberals are way too conservative, imo. They'd possibly lose voters on both sides of the spectrum in a merger.

 

[Eug]

The Liberals are way too conservative, imo. They'd possibly lose voters on both sides of the spectrum in a merger.

I'm not sure I understand. You think they'd lose a lot of further left leaning voters if they merged with the NDP?

I think the voters they'd lose the most are centrist to centre-left voters who don't want to be pushed further left.

 

[Mongo]

Where the CPC, LPC and NDP are, on a left-right scale, depends on whether you are comparing them to US standards or to European standards.

By US standards, the CPC is just right of centre, the LPC is centre left, and the NDP is far left. By continental European standards, the CPC is centre right, the LPC is just right of centre, and the NDP is centre left.

(By either standard, the BQ is close to the NDP. The main difference between the BQ and the NDP is that the BQ is ethnic-nationalist and sovereignist, while the NDP is not. Which goes a long way towards explaining the NDP rise in Quebec.)

I could see the LPC splitting apart, with the right and left wings joining the CPC and NDP, respectively, and a mere rump remaining.

 

[MetroMan]

I could see the LPC splitting apart, with the right and left wings joining the CPC and NDP, respectively, and a mere rump remaining.

I agree. Some of the veteran Liberal MPs might jump ship to the NDP given the new legitimacy of the party while other more conservative Liberals might leak over to the Conservative Party if the LPC becomes unviable for the near future. Nonetheless, Harper's Conservatives are probably too right wing for the most conservative Liberals and the NDP might just shift further to the centre to welcome some experienced MPs and strengthen the party.

But now back to the main question: will the Liberals help vote down Harper and give Layton a shot at governing? I like the idea that Layton can offer some former Liberal cabinet members posts in his government (he could use the experience for senior positions) in exchange for voting with the NDP to take down Harper. Even if Ignatieff (if he remains leader) doesn't want to legitimize the NDP by propping them up into government, he can't force elected Liberal MPs to not vote with the NDP, specially if the option is "no power 3rd party seat warmers" versus cabinet posts in a coalition.

 

[Mongo]

I suspect that the Liberals are going to be in a very bad place after the election. Assuming that no party gains a majority (quite probable) and that the CPC and BQ together are still short of a majority (possible, although less likely), then the Liberals have only four options, all of them bad.

One, give the Conservatives the support to form a government. This would be in direct contradiction with their recent vote to bring down the government on the grounds of contempt of Parliament, and would certainly cause them to lose much of their remaining public support. People would be asking why they should vote for the Liberals if the Liberals are going to support their traditional rivals.

Two, give the NDP the support to form a government. This would very likely result in the Liberals shrinking in expected future influence, since the NDP would be the ones carrying out the progressive agenda, and the public would probably decide to support the "real" progressives, once they have seen them in action at the Federal level and they have lost the "third party" stigma.

Three, do nothing and force another election. Being seen as forcing yet another election would be the kiss of death for the Liberals, in my opinion.

Four, start to dissolve as a political party, with many members joining the NDP and a few joining the CPC. Again, this marks the beginning of the end for the Liberals.

Ironically, the best result for the Liberals would be for the Conservatives to form a majority government, since they would escape having to do something that would cause self-damage.

 

[MetroMan]

Good assessment Mongo. It's going to be a very interesting week after the election. When do you think is the earliest that we'll know the Liberals' intentions?

The earliest official opportunity to defeat the Conservatives attempt at forming government is the Speech from the Throne correct? Or can the NDP go to the Governor General the day after the election and express their intention to try to form the government?

 

[MetroMan]

Every recent poll has shown that it's solidified that a Majority is out of Harper's grasp regardless of vote splitting on the left. If so, this is his last election. He's failed to get a Majority after three attempts and the NDP's surge will probably resume if another election is called within a year. Jack is a rock star and I'm convinced if this surge had begun just a week earlier, he would have surpassed the Conservatives numbers as the Liberals collapsed further and Harper continued to look powerless to Layton's rise.

I think that because of this, over 60% of Canadians will welcome Jack Layton as our Prime Minister even though it may take a coalition to do so. Harper's supporters of course will cry foul but if a coalition is formed, it can and will likely last a full 4 year term because the Liberals have a lot of work ahead to rebuild their party from the ground up and the Bloq is probably finished and its MPs will want to prolong their careers for as long as possible.

I've been ping ponging about the possibility of Harper being defeated at the Speech from the Throne but I'm beginning to believe that the odds are that he will. Can't wait for the results tomorrow.

 

[old boy]

Surely, the spotlight is on photogenic Jack now, and rightly so. But, choices made by rudderless Liberals after today could affect the nature of the reformed Conservative Party. The future allegiance of so many mushy Liberals is a moot point, and the defection of so many to either NDP or Conservative would soften both into nationally acceptable choices. This may be the beginning of two party politics in Canada.