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WislaHD said:
Something that I have been wondering about having spoken with a few conservatives today, how many PC voters are actually motivated to go to the polls this election?

I don't know if it is a Toronto-bias, but the majority of the conservatives I know are not voting for Ford. None of them like Ford at all. If they go to vote, they are voting against Wynne or the prospect of the NDP governing. Meanwhile, one even surprised me today and said that they voted NDP.

I'm curious how PC voter turnout will be like this election as it is traditionally strong. Will many simply stay home, unmotivated to vote?
Click to expand...

A lot of the Conservatives i know are voting Ford. Most of them are hard core right-wingers that will never vote for a Liberal ever. Doesn't matter how bad the PC leader is. The province is full of people like that who vote against their best interests.
 
WislaHD said:
I'm hearing about new polling data that shows Don Valley West (Wynne's riding) going PC.
Anyone can verify?
Click to expand...

I don't think their predictions come directly from polling (I haven't actually read all of this) but tooclosetocall.ca shows the PCs having a slightly better chance of winning:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Editing to add link to more recent version:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380547586/Ontario-Proj-30-05-2018-Detailed
 
WislaHD said:
Something that I have been wondering about having spoken with a few conservatives today, how many PC voters are actually motivated to go to the polls this election?

I don't know if it is a Toronto-bias, but the majority of the conservatives I know are not voting for Ford. None of them like Ford at all. If they go to vote, they are voting against Wynne or the prospect of the NDP governing. Meanwhile, one even surprised me today and said that they voted NDP.

I'm curious how PC voter turnout will be like this election as it is traditionally strong. Will many simply stay home, unmotivated to vote?
Click to expand...

I would put little stock in that. It'll be like the "Never Trump" Republicans in the US - that amounted to basically nothing.
 
vic said:
I don't think their predictions come directly from polling (I haven't actually read all of this) but tooclosetocall.ca shows the PCs having a slightly better chance of winning:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380406307/Ontario-Proj-28-05-2018-Detailed

Editing to add link to more recent version:
https://www.scribd.com/document/380547586/Ontario-Proj-30-05-2018-Detailed
Click to expand...

Seat projection models based on the 2014 result are almost useless in this political environment.

Woodbridge for example ain't going Liberal.
 
Northern Light, I'm not against universal pharma care or any such measure and we can debate about the positive or negative implications for business; however, I stand by the argument that the NDP is running explicitly on an anti-business message. The protagonist in their messaging is "the people", the antagonist in their messaging is "those not paying their fair share". The other or antagonist are identified as high income earners and business. I find it difficult to interpret this in any other way and it is certainly not a "dangerous" reading of the strategy at any rate.

Ford is running a similar campaign message but in his case the protagonist is also "the people", the antagonist is "government and even corporate elites". That is why their populist messaging almost sounds the same.
 
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