[MrGoose]

Containment is an improvement, but it's not everything. What about Fukushima?

When was the last time Ontario was hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake and 10m tsunami? And how many people died from Fukushima? And how much radiation was actually released from Fukushima?

 

[Northern Light]

And residential German electricity is also about 4 times more expensive per kWH than residential Canadian electricity and 9 times more expensive for industry.

And they are far more of an industrial powerhouse than we are, notwithstanding that.......

Canada electricity prices, September 2023 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Canada, September 2023: The price of electricity for households is CAD 0.000 per kWh or USD per kWh. This includes all components of the electricity bill such as the cost of power, distribution and taxes. For comparison, the average price of electricity in the world for that period is USD...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

Germany electricity prices, September 2023 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Germany, September 2023: The price of electricity for households is EUR 0.000 per kWh or USD per kWh. This includes all components of the electricity bill such as the cost of power, distribution and taxes. For comparison, the average price of electricity in the world for that period is USD...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

I don't think that following Germany's lead on scarcer more expensive electricity is a winning formula.

Ontario's power will not quadruple because we beef up solar a bit with panels that are now far cheaper than when Germany did many of its installations.

The cost of solar electricity generation on new installs in Ontario is in the range of 6c per kw/hour

https://www.cleanairalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/options2023.pdf

 

[LemonCondo]

Isn't Germany the country burning brown coal because it's leaders are shutting down Nuclear power plants? How green is that...

 

[Reecemartin]

I can't say I'm at all excited by this.

While its certainly true that nuclear is cleaner than coal at the operating stage, the mining is every bit as bad, and disposal has no approved resolution.

I really can't fathom endorsing something that is an incomplete thought; if you don't know how to manage the entire life-cycle of what you create (and charge accordingly), to me that's irresponsible.

I would prefer we focused on lowering the consumption levels of the rich and upper-middle-class, and promoting energy efficiency.

We have yet to approve something as straight-forward as going to all LED streetlights, never mind some of the bigger savings that could be achieved, at far lower cost than expanded nuclear generation.

As apart from that I would strongly prefer to see much more dispersed, smaller-scale generation from a strategic perspective. Putting all eggs in one very large 'Bruce' basket seems incredibly unwise.

The fetish for having 'the largest in the world' I accord the same questioning look I give people who fetishize the tallest building, or the busiest/widest highway, why? What seems like an odd monument to ego rather than a sound use of dollars
merits no approbation, but rather lament and the need for a re-think.

I think the growth is largely being driven by industry not people using a lot more power at home - EVs will move the number up for sure, but heat pumps and other things (like more transit!) will bring it down.

Why do I say it's industry? Well the EV / battery plants are enormous - is the VW plant not the largest in the world at full buildout (or close?) - and I think a big reason Ontario was seen as a good spot was the very clean grid - so theres a big power crunch coming.

If you look at IESO reports, there is massive growth in SWO (adding roughly the current usage of Ottawa in the next 5-7 years) and in particular Leamington . . . why? Loads of ENORMOUS greenhouses.

View attachment 490110

Heres a "windsor for scale"

 

[innsertnamehere]

I think the growth is largely being driven by industry not people using a lot more power at home - EVs will move the number up for sure, but heat pumps and other things (like more transit!) will bring it down.

Why do I say it's industry? Well the EV / battery plants are enormous - is the VW plant not the largest in the world at full buildout (or close?) - and I think a big reason Ontario was seen as a good spot was the very clean grid - so theres a big power crunch coming.

If you look at IESO reports, there is massive growth in SWO (adding roughly the current usage of Ottawa in the next 5-7 years) and in particular Leamington . . . why? Loads of ENORMOUS greenhouses.
View attachment 490109
View attachment 490110

Heres a "windsor for scale"
View attachment 490111

Heat pumps, while far more efficient than current heating methods in terms of energy consumption, will actually significantly increase electricity demand as currently the overwhelming majority of heating in the province occurs through natural gas, which has no demand on the electric grid. Every household that switches to heat pumps from natural gas or another carbon-based heat source, while representing a reduction in carbon emissions and overall energy consumption, still represents a large increase in electricity demand on the grid.

 

[Northern Light]

When was the last time Ontario was hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake and 10m tsunami?

There is no evidence of such a scenario on record.

However, the Western Quebec Sizemic Zone is not that far away, and did have an earthquake in the range of 6.1-6.5 in 1935

(which is not an argument against nuclear, just an answer to your question)

An academic paper discussing earthquake risk in the above zone can be found here:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EA001825

And how many people died from Fukushima? And how much radiation was actually released from Fukushima?

According the report linked below:

The earthquake and tsunami caused devastating damage, with 120,000 homes completely destroyed and more than a million half or partially wrecked. In total, 19,759 people died.

How many people died in the Fukushima disaster?

New Netflix series The Days chronicles the 2011 nuclear disaster

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

To be clear, the vast majority did not die of radiation, but of drowning from the Tsunami or other secondary causes.

 

[Northern Light]

I think the growth is largely being driven by industry not people using a lot more power at home - EVs will move the number up for sure, but heat pumps and other things (like more transit!) will bring it down.

Why do I say it's industry? Well the EV / battery plants are enormous - is the VW plant not the largest in the world at full buildout (or close?) - and I think a big reason Ontario was seen as a good spot was the very clean grid - so theres a big power crunch coming.

If you look at IESO reports, there is massive growth in SWO (adding roughly the current usage of Ottawa in the next 5-7 years) and in particular Leamington . . . why? Loads of ENORMOUS greenhouses.
View attachment 490109
View attachment 490110

Heres a "windsor for scale"
View attachment 490111

I don't disagree with any of what you are saying.

My issue is not with nuclear per se; its more w/those who I view as unbridled enthusiasts for growth, its just not a world view I share.

 

[innsertnamehere]

100% false.

From the website of Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator:

"Electricity demand is largely driven by the weather. Ontario is a summer peaking province, meaning the highest times of peak demand tend to be during hot, humid days and/or during a heatwave."

Please post citations for all your claims on a go-forward basis. I do it, its not hard.

****

As to the rest of your statements above, made w/o citation as usual, I've already addressed them in multiple posts and I don't feel like I need to take more time away from work to do so again.

right now energy consumption is higher in the summer as A/C is electric powered and heat mostly comes from fossil fuel, so cold winter days when natural gas demand is skyrocketing doesn't place much of a strain on the electric grid. This won't be the case in the future when Natural Gas goes out as the dominant heating method and is replaced by heat pumps and electric heating.

Toronto required 600 heating-degree hours in 2021 in January for example - but only 109 cooling-degree hours in July of the same year. Heat Pumps, which from my understanding cool as efficiently as they heat (generally) - means in a fully electrified future, electric demand will be far higher on a cold January day than a hot July day.

This article specifically addresses this:

The role of seasonal demand in an all-electric scenario

Peak solar production does not coincide with peak heating demand, and a team of researchers determined that meeting this demand with renewables alone will require massive deployment of renewables on top of existing fossil generation.

pv-magazine-usa.com

The researchers modeled these seasonal fluctuations in what they call the “Falcon Curve’’, a graph of the change in monthly energy consumption (which represents the shape of a falcon). The data shows that winter heating demand drives energy consumption to its highest levels in December and January, with a secondary peak in July and August due to cooling, and the lowest levels in April, May, September, and October.

and provides a wonderful graphic:

And this study is for the US, which has higher cool-degree hours and fewer heat-degree hours than Ontario.

There are people who have university post-doctorates in how to decarbonize an economy, and many, many, very educated people in this stuff working at Ontario Hydro. They know what they are doing and know how to model electricity demand far better than you or I.

My views here are not as much "unbridled boosters of growth" so much as "lets decarbonize our province to address climate change" - and that involves a whole TON of additional electricity demand, even in a 0-population growth and 0-economic growth scenario.

 

[LemonCondo]

To be clear, the vast majority did not die of radiation, but of drowning from the Tsunami or other secondary causes.

Which makes it completely irrelevant.
I must also add that the tsunami didn't directly take out the reactor, it flood the backup generators. So the earthquake did not destroy the plant. So earthquakes are not even a concern as long as it's designed correctly.

My issue is not with nuclear per se; its more w/those who I view as unbridled enthusiasts for growth, its just not a world view I share.

The world is growing, and some day everybody on earth might share a comparable high standard of living. So if it's not here it's going to be elsewhere. Saying "we don't want growth here" is not going to stop growth entirely. The whole world needs to use energy more efficiently and greenly, but the amount of energy used will still go up as countries develop.

 

[nfitz]

I think the growth is largely being driven by industry not people using a lot more power at home - EVs will move the number up for sure, but heat pumps and other things (like more transit!) will bring it down.

Heat pumps aren't reducing Hydro in the winter - if anything it's going up.

Residentially, I'd think the biggest thing would be EV charging. Toronto Hydro has been rebuilding my neighbourhood recently; when I asked questions about the increased capacity, they said it was anticipation of increased demand for EVs.

Also, that EV demand is off-peak; which means a potentially higher baseload. Which can be handled best with nuclear (cost notwithstanding).

 

[Northern Light]

Which makes it completely irrelevant.
I must also add that the tsunami didn't directly take out the reactor, it flood the backup generators. So the earthquake did not destroy the plant. So earthquakes are not even a concern as long as it's designed correctly.

I am very, very tired of people posting stuff like the above.

I specifically said it wasn't relevant and that I was literally answering a question. If you or anyone else cannot be bothered reading my entire post you are not entitled to reply to any of it.

I am by far the fairest poster at UT, I go out of my way to acknowledge other arguments, to cite evidence and to add conditionality to it as well.

Reactionary commentary by others is deeply offensive. Read, re-read, respond, proof-read.

The world is growing, and some day everybody on earth might share a comparable high standard of living. So if it's not here it's going to be elsewhere. Saying "we don't want growth here" is not going to stop growth entirely. The whole world needs to use energy more efficiently and greenly, but the amount of energy used will still go up as countries develop.

Irrelevant.

Ontario does not export electricity to Mexico, South American, Asia, Africa or any other developing nation.

Our power generation needs in this province are not determined by growth in demand elsewhere.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Heat pumps aren't reducing Hydro in the winter - if anything it's going up.

Residentially, I'd think the biggest thing would be EV charging. Toronto Hydro has been rebuilding my neighbourhood recently; when I asked questions about the increased capacity, they said it was anticipation of increased demand for EVs.

Also, that EV demand is off-peak; which means a potentially higher baseload. Which can be handled best with nuclear (cost notwithstanding).

EVs and Heat pumps are both huge power draws.

EVs have the advantage of being able to be charged mostly off peak, which reduces the disparity of peak vs. off-peak loads and places further demands on base-load electric capacity (such as nuclear), as you mentioned.

Heat Pumps are going to create huge peak-hour demands in the winter once they achieve mass adoption.

 

[LemonCondo]

Irrelevant.

Ontario does not export electricity to Mexico, South American, Asia, Africa or any other developing nation.

Our power generation needs in this province are not determined by growth in demand elsewhere.

You missed my point. I was more hitting on the "growth" thing. Growth equaling immigration - population increase.

 

[Northern Light]

You missed my point. I was more hitting on the "growth" thing. Growth equaling immigration - population increase.

Which I have already said we don't have to accept.

I would like to see global population decline, significantly.

I think 3 billion is a reasonable number of humans.

To be clear, I'm not advocating for calamity, I'm arguing that we stop trying to increase population and we start letting it fall naturally. It'll be just fine, we'll make less stuff, they'll be fewer jobs, but they'll be fewer people to buy stuff, to feed and to house. Great. Less pollution, lower housing costs, better work-life balance.

 

[LemonCondo]

Well more developed countries do see their birth rates lower significantly. But then they use more stuff as they are developed. I wonder if these will just equal out?