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stevedean said:
What are you basing that on other than pure speculation?
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Due to Queen's Park and Metrolinx lack of communication, we're all speculating. But we have the TTC saying that the earliest open date is July 2025, so presumably the city knows something. It's a rare government agency that launches anything ontime, so it won't take much to push that ready date into Dec 2025, where I would argue the builders and operators won't want to open the system in the winter or the holidays, and instead will opt for the spring of 2026 when systems can be more easily monitored during the first phases. As for rapid succession of failures, perhaps I'm just readying myself for disappointment and managing my own expectations of Metrolinx. As an aside, whatever happened to all the lawsuits between ML and the builders - some big settlements so far?
 
Admiral Beez said:
Due to Queen's Park and Metrolinx lack of communication, we're all speculating. But we have the TTC saying that the earliest open date is July 2025, so presumably the city knows something. It's a rare government agency that launches anything ontime, so it won't take much to push that ready date into Dec 2025, where I would argue the builders and operators won't want to open the system in the winter or the holidays, and instead will opt for the spring of 2026 when systems can be more easily monitored during the first phases. As for rapid succession of failures, perhaps I'm just readying myself for disappointment and managing expectations of Metrolinx.
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Jumping from July to December (6 months) just like that seems a bit of a stretch unless July is absolutely not possible.

And Ottawa just opened a new line last month - why is there this constant idea that transit cannot be opened in the winter?
 
Admiral Beez said:
Due to Queen's Park and Metrolinx lack of communication, we're all speculating. But we have the TTC saying that the earliest open date is July 2025, so presumably the city knows something. It's a rare government agency that launches anything ontime, so it won't take much to push that ready date into Dec 2025, where I would argue the builders and operators won't want to open the system in the winter or the holidays, and instead will opt for the spring of 2026 when systems can be more easily monitored during the first phases. As for rapid succession of failures, perhaps I'm just readying myself for disappointment and managing my own expectations of Metrolinx. As an aside, whatever happened to all the lawsuits between ML and the builders - some big settlements so far?
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Didn’t they open the line 1 extension end of December a few years ago?
 
stevedean said:
Jumping from July to December (6 months) just like that seems a bit of a stretch unless July is absolutely not possible.

And Ottawa just opened a new line last month - why is there this constant idea that transit cannot be opened in the winter?
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I don't know if it's a constant idea. But IIRC, Ottawa Confederation Line (O-Train Line 1) was initially scheduled to open in Nov 2018, but was postponed to Sept, 2019, far more than the six months I'm suggesting for the Crosstown. While, AIUI the primary reasons for the O-Train delay were related to technical issues and system testing, winter weather also played a role, during the testing phase, with ice buildup on the tracks and issues with the train doors freezing, which required further adjustments and testing. So, it's not that transit cannot be opened in the winter (and, we have ready examples above of transit opening in winter), but it's easier to conduct final checks outside of the cold season. And there's also the issue of Torontonian's "transit delay fatigue" or "delay acceptance." After years of broken promises, Metrolinx and the TTC know we're not going to march on Queen's Park if it's delayed further for warmer weather.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I don't know if it's a constant idea. But IIRC, Ottawa Confederation Line (O-Train Line 1) was initially scheduled to open in Nov 2018, but was postponed to Sept, 2019, far more than the six months I'm suggesting for the Crosstown. While, AIUI the primary reasons for the O-Train delay were related to technical issues and system testing, winter weather also played a role, during the testing phase, with ice buildup on the tracks and issues with the train doors freezing, which required further adjustments and testing. So, it's not that transit cannot be opened in the winter (and, we have ready examples above of transit opening in winter), but it's easier to conduct final checks outside of the cold season. And there's also the issue of Torontonian's "transit delay fatigue" or "delay acceptance." After years of broken promises, Metrolinx and the TTC know we're not going to march on Queen's Park if it's delayed further for warmer weather.
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As another note towards later than sooner, Ottawa's Line 2 opened 2.5 months *after* it passed final testing (although there were additional complications due to it being a federally regulated railway). The REM though opened 1 month after passing it's test, so here's hoping that it's not a long close out phase.
 
Doug Ford says the Crosstown will open this year.

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Via Twitter.
 
stevedean said:
I know people are laughing at this, but by saying this publicly for the first time, it makes him accountable.
Up until now, he's never committed to a date/year, so this is a change in message.
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He must have gotten some kind of confirmation or special info from metrolinx that the line would indeed open this year......

Or this is all campaign bluster 😥
 
TOtramz said:
He must have gotten some kind of confirmation or special info from metrolinx that the line would indeed open this year......

Or this is all campaign bluster 😥
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Bluster. There's no way they could be sure, even if they were feeling confident.

I mean there's still a good likelihood (I'm predicting Q4 for the reasons I've mentioned above about testing), but it's far from guaranteed
 
He didn't have to commit to anything though - that's what I find interesting.

It's not like this promise is not going to sway voters - and as I've said in the past, the majority of his base is in the 905/Rural areas and most could care less whether the line opens on Eglinton.

So the fact that he's actually stating 2025, when he has never given a date in the past, makes me think it's realistic.
 
stevedean said:
I know people are laughing at this, but by saying this publicly for the first time, it makes him accountable.
Up until now, he's never committed to a date/year, so this is a change in message.
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Just as we can hold them accountable for two-way GO service to Kitchener promised in the last election.
 
stevedean said:
He didn't have to commit to anything though - that's what I find interesting.

It's not like this promise is not going to sway voters - and as I've said in the past, the majority of his base is in the 905/Rural areas and most could care less whether the line opens on Eglinton.

So the fact that he's actually stating 2025, when he has never given a date in the past, makes me think it's realistic.
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The election will happen before anything concrete has to be announced and Ford would not be punished by the electorate before 2028, so bluster would be worth the risk in either case. I think 2025 is still probable, but it's to his advantage to take credit for it now anyway.
 
stevedean said:
He didn't have to commit to anything though - that's what I find interesting.

It's not like this promise is not going to sway voters - and as I've said in the past, the majority of his base is in the 905/Rural areas and most could care less whether the line opens on Eglinton.

So the fact that he's actually stating 2025, when he has never given a date in the past, makes me think it's realistic.
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I admire your optimism, but here's my cautionary tale. I was convinced the Trillium line in Ottawa was going to open last April. Empty Trains were running 10 hours a day since December 2023. More cynical people than me said 2025. I argued there was no way. OC Transpo's general manager herself was confident in a Spring opening. Spring came and went. Surely August was doable. Trains were still running all the time. August came and went. Finally, they announced final testing for early October.It passed the test with flying colors. They said they needed 4 weeks or so before opening, so mid November for sure. Then December... Then finally the announcement, opening January.2025. I'm now in the cynic camp when it comes to transit projects.


I hope for a better trajectory for the crosstown, but so far everything about it looks like a movie I've seen already, potentially even worse
 
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