[Admiral Beez]

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

Thoughts on Alberta?

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

...I'll save that schadenfreude until after the election.

 

[christiesplits]

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

There are a lot of public sector workers in Pierre's riding who are likely concerned about the prospects of a DOGE-style tear down of the civil service.

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

Wab Kinew's popularity in Manitoba might help the NDP hold their seats in Manitoba.

Last year, the NDP had high hopes for pickups in Ontario, including some Toronto seats. I suspect they will come close in Parkdale-High Park with Karpoche, but finish short. The NDP should hold their strongholds in Windsor West, London Fanshawe and Hamilton Centre.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Wouldn't townhomes be considered multi-unit homes and thus eligible for the DC reduction?

hard to know without more detail but "multi-unit" typically means multiple units on one lot - i.e. apartments. Stacked Towns may qualify, but we would need to see details.

Regardless the specificity of limiting it to "multi unit" means it will ignore the product class in largest shortage.

 

[evandyk]

Last year, the NDP had high hopes for pickups in Ontario, including some Toronto seats. I suspect they will come close in Parkdale-High Park with Karpoche, but finish short. The NDP should hold their strongholds in Windsor West, London Fanshawe and Hamilton Centre.

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

 

[christiesplits]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

Fair point. I think we could see a scenario similar to the last provincial election, where the NDP remains competitive in traditional NDP ridings, but their popular support craters everywhere else.

I live in Parkdale-High Park which is currently a sea of orange signs. Still, the NDP also won the sign war in the riding in 2021 and lost. While I suspect Karpoche does well in Parkdale (especially among the Tibetan community) and in my hood, the West Bend, I think the Liberal candidate has the advantage in the more affluent BWV, Baby Point and Swansea neighborhoods.

 

[evandyk]

I think the Liberals still have the upper hand in Parkdale-High Park (now Taiaiako'n-Parkdale-High Park, though I don't know how significant any boundary changes are). I don't really see any Liberal incumbent doing worse than they did in 2021 in the current environment.

Edit to add: I checked wikipedia and it says there were "significant" changes in the north of the riding, but it doesn't describe them and I don't have time to investigate.

 

[Jonny5]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

It will be interesting to see how the Green Party does in these urban Toronto ridings too as I get the sense their support base has also collapsed, and even if they only got 4% of the vote in the past election, if only half of that vote moved strategically to another party that 2% could swing these close Toronto ridings.

 

[Towered]

...I'll save that schadenfreude until after the election.

I would relish that...

 

[ethan.l.cecc]

I think the Liberals still have the upper hand in Parkdale-High Park (now Taiaiako'n-Parkdale-High Park, though I don't know how significant any boundary changes are). I don't really see any Liberal incumbent doing worse than they did in 2021 in the current environment.

Edit to add: I checked wikipedia and it says there were "significant" changes in the north of the riding, but it doesn't describe them and I don't have time to investigate.

From the redistribution website, black lines are the former boundaries, blue the new boundaries. T-P-HP added a small part of Liberty Village and the communities north of rail corridor to the hydro corridor in the Syme neighbourhood

 

[adma]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

Though the broader thing going against the NDP is that they've been blanked in Toronto since '15, so it'd be *really* offbeat for them to be gaining seats in Toronto now (And there already isn't much NDP vote to "collapse" in suburban seats--in most of the 905 save Oshawa, they were typically single digits and low teens in '21, maybe upper teens if they were lucky. And even in PP's riding, they only got 11% in '21.)

 

[afransen]

Short of Trump invading Canada (and even then) there is no way the west will vote Liberal.

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

 

[Richard White]

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

I don't.

When I say west I was thinking Alberta as well as the praries.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

BC’s its own animal.

 

[nfitz]

BC’s its own animal.

I'd say that Manitoba is it's own animal.

338 Canada says of the 14 seats there, 5 are safe or likely for the Liberals, and 5 are safe or likely for the Conservatives. Only 4 are in play - 3 are currently held by the NDP. NDP are in play in 3 of those, Liberals in 3, and Conservatives in 2.

Liberals tend to win the same or more seats in Manitoba when they win majorities.

Saskatchewan is much more Conservative, with 12 of the 14 seats safe or likely for the Conservatives, and the one safe seat for the Liberals in the north. Beyond that only one of the Regina ridings is in play between the Conservatives and Liberals.

Looks like Liberals will get at last 1 seat in each province and territory including somewhere from 3 to 11 seats in Edmonton and Calgary; they currently only have 1 Alberta seat. Alberta is certainly not as monolithic as it once was.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

I think both are toast, even if they do hold their seats.

Singh is yesterday's news, and even if he hit's his potential maximum of 15 seats, that's about 10 less than in his last two elections; and the current forecast is only 8 seats. They had 44 seats in the election before he took over.

And Pierre has taken the Conservatives from a huge majority at New Years to another loss in just weeks; perhaps a record downfall.