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nfitz said:
I think both are toast, even if they do hold their seats.

Singh is yesterday's news, and even if he hit's his potential maximum of 15 seats, that's about 10 less than in his last two elections; and the current forecast is only 8 seats. They had 44 seats in the election before he took over.

And Pierre has taken the Conservatives from a huge majority at New Years to another loss in just weeks; perhaps a record downfall.
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I'm not counting chickens until late Monday night.

The CPC needs to decide if they want to be a big tent party, or one for the more fringe. The ex-Reform element rules the party and its policies reflect that. That's a "never" from me
 
PL1 said:
I'm not counting chickens until late Monday night.

The CPC needs to decide if they want to be a big tent party, or one for the more fringe. The ex-Reform element rules the party and its policies reflect that. That's a "never" from me
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They will never be a fringe party however they do need to get back to basics.

If this election has shown anything thus far it's that Trump style American politics isn't welcome up here.

Having a Reform based Conservative Party that only appeals to diehard conservative redneck wannabes won't help.

If the Conservatives want to win nation wide they need to appeal to everyone not just inbred freedom loving white trash in Alberta.
 
"We won't touch social programs." "We will continue to bolster civil liberties" "We will make this country prosper for everyone."

...I mean, that seemed to work for Mulroney. Got over 50% of the popular vote...something unheard in federal politics.
 
Agreed about Manitoba. It leans away from the Conservatives more than it leans towards them. When people discuss "the West" they often are only talking about Alberta and Saskatchewan. There's no such thing as a West that stands politically united against the East.
 
Admiral Beez said:
The CPC was close this time around, even with their small tent. Had Trudeau stayed on, Poilievre would be PM on Monday.
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...and we would of crossed that Rubicon that the State side is currently enjoying. The question starts to become, "What where we thinking?"
 
evandyk said:
It's a good thing Trudeau has more good sense than Joe Biden.
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Agreed! Imagine where the USA and world might be today if at the Feb 2023 State of the Union Address, President Biden declares that he will not be running again in Nov 2024, and asks that the DNC hold an open and competitive convention to choose his successor before the end of the year. Hopefully the Dems would decide on a white, male, straight, and under 65 candidate, like Walz who may appeal to the MAGA and centralist Americans. We'd be living in a different reality now.

My thinking on Carney in 2025 is, like the newly elected Winston Churchill in May 1940, the right man for the specifics of that time. Notice how in July 1945, when the European war was over and the UK's needs and priorities changed, Churchill was tossed by the British people. Carney won't undue the lost decade of Trudeau's flawed handling of immigration, housing and the economy... but he will get us through the Trump years and prepare Canada for the possible new MAGA administration that follows Trump. After that, the Canadian people may well toss Carney.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Agreed! Imagine where the USA and world might be today if at the Feb 2023 State of the Union Address, President Biden declares that he will not be running again in Nov 2024, and asks that the DNC hold an open and competitive convention to choose his successor before the end of the year. Hopefully the Dems would decide on a white, male, straight, and under 65 candidate, like Walz who may appeal to the MAGA and centralist Americans. We'd be living in a different reality now.

My thinking on Carney in 2025 is, like the newly elected Winston Churchill in May 1940, the right man for the specifics of that time. Notice how in July 1945, when the European war was over and the UK's needs and priorities changed, Churchill was tossed by the British people. Carney won't undue the lost decade of Trudeau's flawed handling of immigration, housing and the economy... but he will get us through the Trump years and prepare Canada for the possible new MAGA administration that follows Trump. After that, the Canadian people may well toss Carney.
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I am cautiously optimistic that Carney realizes that he is very unlikely to win another election after this one, and makes a lot of difficult but necessary decisions early in his mandate (assuming it is a majority).
 
Admiral Beez said:
BC’s its own animal.

Continent-Maps-Canada-Regions-Map.png
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That map is problematic for more than Manitoba.

When you're thinking about areas when there is a clear, and consistent political lean:

From West to East:

Vancouver Island divides based on urban/gentrified which is Liberal/Green/NDP. And resource extraction/rural which leans Conservative/NDP

Lower Mainland BC is 3-way between the big players, NDP/Libs in Vancouver proper, and all three in suburban Vancouver.

Northern/Interior BC with non-First Nations majority leans Conservative, votes/thinks a lot like Alberta.

First Nations Majority leans NDP.

***

Alberta has a right-ward tilt to be sure, but urban Edmonton and core Calgary are generally in play. Lethbridge also can tilt swing/left.

Rural Alberta is hard right.

Saskatchewan is mostly what it is, with the NDP/Libs marginally competitive in Regina/Saskatoon.

Manitoba divides roughly into three, Winnipeg (Liberal-NDP with Cons competitive outsides the core). The rural south (from just north of Winnipeg) very much leans right-ward. The First Nations plurality north is very leaf leaning.

Ontario is so many discrete areas, The North, The Near North, Central Ontario, The Urban East (Ottawa, Kingston), Rural East, The Urban South West (Windsor, London, K-W, Niagara proper), the rural south-west, then the 416/905.

Quebec divides up roughly as Gatineau, Urban Montreal, Suburban Montreal, Quebec City area, rural Francophone Quebec, First Nations Quebec.

Newfoundland is close to one block.

PEI is close to one block

Nova Scotia splits as Halifax, Sydney, Other.

New Brunswick splits Francophone/Anglo Rural/Anglo Urban.

The Territories can swing.
 
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